2008 New York Giants Preview

Are you ready for some football? The college football season started this past weekend, but now it’s time for the real deal. Thursday night will kick off the NFL season as the New York Football Giants will have their ceremonious home opener against the Washington Redskins (NBC 7 pm). The defending Super Bowl champions – yes I just had to say that to hear it in my own words, ‘cause it still sounds incredible, and unbelievable – look to prove the critics wrong again in 2008.

To say the least, this will be a difficult season for the Giants in many respects. Starting with the obvious, they have lost 4 starters on the defensive side of the ball, all of which were important to the team’s recent success. Gibril Wilson was one of the most underrated safeties in the NFC, but now he is with Oakland; and Kawika Mitchell, the team’s only significant free agent signee before last season, is now in Buffalo.

But the biggest losses are on the defensive line, where future Hall of Famer Michael Strahan retired and now injured All-Pro Osi Umenyiora once were. The two combined for 22 sacks last season, and even more, they were game changers. Losing one wasn’t catastrophic due to the emergence of Justin Tuck, the backup defensive end who registered 10 sacks last season. However, with Umenyiora now out with a knee injury, Matthias Kiwanuka has now been forced to move to defensive end.

Here is why I don’t think it’s AS big of a deal as people are making it out to be. Steve Spagnuolo’s system with his defense is complex, both for the Giants players and especially for the opposing offenses. Just ask the Patriots offensive line, who had no idea what was coming at them in February. Look at the place he came from: Philadelphia. In their years of dominance, with the exception of 2004 when they had Jevon Kearse, the Eagles never had a traditionally dominant pass rusher. Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson was able to use schemes to make his front seven more formidable as a unit than they were as individual parts.

I believe Spagnuolo has the same type of system in place in New York. While the individuals this year may not blow you away – Tuck, Barry Cofield, Fred Robbins, Kiwanuka, Antonio Pierce, Gerris Wilkinson, and Danny Clark – the scheming will have the players appear to be better than they actually are. While this isn’t a knock against Kawika Mitchell, who I thought was a solid linebacker in the system, I don’t regard his loss as highly as others have. Last year, the G-Men lost their best pass-rushing linebacker in Kiwanuka to a broken leg in week 6, and had to rely on Wilkinson and career underachiever Reggie Torbor at linebacker. Having another two who have learned the system won’t be as big of a downgrade as people think.

This is also possible because the secondary is as good as it has been in many years. With Aaron Ross proving himself at the end of last year, and Corey Webster’s incredible performance in the playoffs, the addition of Kenny Phillips in the draft makes this secondary young and extremely talented. Word out of Giants camp was that Webster and Ross were playing great and had easily sealed the deal as the starting cornerbacks. That leaves key contributors Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters as the Nickel and Dime cornerbacks, which is better than what most teams have. I think that the pass rush doesn’t need to sustain itself as much as it needed to in recent years because of this secondary improvement, and the Giants defense should be a top-10 defense once again.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants of course lost Jeremy Shockey in the trade to the Saints. Once again, everyone doubts Big Blue’s ability on offense to score and sustain drives, which is precisely what the loyal followers heard after Tiki Barber retired after the 2006 season. Last year there were doubts about the running back depth and how the Giants would overcome the loss of Barber. Those doubts were answered emphatically with outstanding seasons from Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, and Reuben Droughns. Bank on those four to be a huge factor once again in the Giants’ offense.

This year, the questions are at the tight end position. Fact is, Kevin Boss (who’s the Boss?!) is no Jeremy Shockey, and I don’t think anyone plans on him catching 80 balls a year while racking up 800 yards and 9 touchdowns. That’s for the other guys to handle. What they do expect is for Boss to be a solid blocker and catch somewhere around 50 passes and maybe take in 6 touchdowns. I’m not sure if anyone realized this, but Shockey only averaged about 60 catches and 4 touchdowns per year in his six seasons in New York anyway. Sure, he was a huge mismatch on safeties and linebackers, but the Giants didn’t use him as effectively anyway.

This is where the real strength of the Giants offense can come into play: wide receivers. Let’s look at the Giants top seven wide receivers: Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, Domenik Hixon, David Tyree. Yes that’s right. The Super Bowl hero is seventh on the depth chart. We all know what Burress can do and that Toomer is Eli’s favorite security blanket, but did anyone notice how well Steve Smith played when he was healthy? (See playoffs, 4th quarter catch in Super Bowl XLII on final drive) The dude is from USC, has hands of gold, and knows what it’s like to be on the big stage. Expect a huge year from him if he can stay healthy. Manningham is a Michigan guy (like Toomer) who, trust me on this being a Penn State fan and Michigan-hater, can run good routes and surprise a defense with his speed. If he can stay out of trouble, he will be a good player in this league. Moss has to stay healthy, but he, Hixon, and Tyree can all stretch the field when they are healthy. Look for this “weakness,” as the experts are calling it, to be a real strength for the Giants this year.

Finally, that brings us to – not Eli just yet – the offensive line. We’ll simply say this about these guys: Joe Theismann may have said they were the worst offensive line a few years ago, but he would say right now that they are one of the best. They don’t get any publicity, and nobody says that they are one of the best in the league, but this group has played together for a few years and they have gelled. Shaun O’Hara is an invaluable leader, and David Diehl and Chris Snee have really come into their own. There is a reason this rushing game has been so good for so many years. Give some credit to the big guys up front for that.

NOW we can start talking Eli. Put simply, the guy had a great end of the season after one of the worst stretches in the history of the NFL. Eli was terrible from weeks 11-16 last year (from the Minnesota debacle to the crazy game in Buffalo) where he combined for four touchdowns and eight interceptions, while completing 45% of his passes. That’s not a misprint – 45%. He was pathetic, inept, and generally awful – putting it mildly. Then, all of a sudden, he became the golden boy everyone thought he would be starting with that week 17 Patriots game. We all know what happened from there.

But the past is the past and now it’s time to start talking about THIS YEAR’s Eli Manning. What does he have to do? Well exactly what he did in those magical five games. It’s simple, really: keep it simple. Don’t try to be a hero, let the players around you do the hard work. I think Kevin Gilbride understands this as will gear his offense around that, although I do see them taking shots down the field more often with the wide receivers. I think Eli will have an above-average year. Nothing flashy to make him the league MVP, but solid quarterback play.

As for predictions, here is where I see this team. The Giants are one of only four teams to have made the playoffs each of the last four years – along with the Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks. So why does everyone think that every year this team will be 6-10, 7-9 at best? I’m not sure. Eli is a true leader on this team, and they have overcome a lot going into every season the past three years. Who’s to say that a few losses in personnel won’t hurt them this year? Everything is eerily similar to last year’s beginning, with the exception that the Giants have newly minted rings on their fingers. This team should get out of the gate quickly with games against Washington, St. Louis, and Cincinnati, but the last four games could be disastrous – Philadelphia, at Dallas, Carolina, at Minnesota. If they play up to their capabilities, they should win three of those last four, but if they falter, they could go 0-4 in that stretch.

I see them splitting their division schedule to go 3-3. I imagine them taking at least three of four from the NFC West (the game against the Seahawks is in the Meadowlands, so that’s a coin flip), which brings their record to 6-4. As for the out of conference games (AFC North), I see Cleveland having a down year, Baltimore and Cincinnati should be wins, and Pittsburgh should be a loss considering how strong they are at home, bringing the record to 9-5. This brings us to the last two games against the Panthers and Vikings, who are two teams that could be anywhere from division winners to third-place finishers in their division. They rely on the quarterback position, and banking on Jake Delhomme is risky for me, and Tarvaris Jackson has proven little, if anything so far in his career. I’ll say they split those games as well, bringing them to a record of 10-6 overall. That should place them second in the division behind Dallas, and one spot ahead of Philadelphia. Washington should struggle with Jim Zorn, finishing fourth, although that doesn’t mean you’re a bad team in the NFC East.

Look for another Wild Card this year, Giants fans. 10-6 is not out of the question, although with this team’s potential, neither is 12-4. I’ll stick with 10 wins, which every Giants fan should be happy with this year.