Here they are. Write them down and place your bets, here is how the teams will finish this season. Also, take note of two of the boxes on the side of this page every week. One will be the winners of each game, the other will be picks against the spread. Take note and I’ll be sure to keep my record updated, don’t worry.
AFC East
New England 13-3
Buffalo 10-6
NY Jets 8-8
Miami 4-12
I keep trying to tell people this, but the Bills will be one of the surprise teams in the AFC this year. Trent Edwards had a decent year last year, and you can only expect him to get better with more playing time. They have a good running attack with Marshawn Lynch and enough receivers around Edwards to make plays. They upgraded the defense in the offseason (Marcus Stroud, Kawika Mitchell) and they still have some of the best special teams in the business. New England won’t be perfect, but they’ll still be the best team. Brett can’t get the Jets to the playoffs – yet – and Miami is on the upswing.
AFC North
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 7-9
Baltimore 6-10
Cleveland is bound to have a down year after the ugly preseason they had. Derek Anderson slumped the second half of last year and that defense is suspect. Playing the NFC East doesn’t help their case. Pittsburgh wins this division mostly because every other team is incredibly flawed. Rashard Mendenhall better figure out his fumbling problems, though.
AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4
Jacksonville 11-5
Houston 10-6
Tennessee 6-10
This is the other surprise team of the year: Houston. A franchise that has been down for so long finally rises up and makes a serious run at the playoffs, that is if Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson stay healthy. Mario Williams is no joke, and Amobi Okoye is talented. DeMeco Ryans is a special talent, and don’t be surprised is Xavier Adibi out of Virginia Tech gets some playing time and surprises people. But this is the Colts’ division until proven otherwise. Peyton is still there, but the Jaguars are ready for another run. Tennessee doesn’t have the offense to hang with everyone.
AFC West
San Diego 12-4
Denver 8-8
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 5-11
There always has to be one division that isn’t up to snuff with the others, and that division is the West in the AFC (and NFC for that matter). The Chargers are clearly the class of the division, although Denver will make things interesting. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall have a special connection, and playing in Mile High is never easy. Kansas City and Oakland continue to rebuild, and watch out for Herm Edwards’ job security. Another terrible year and he could be gone.
NFC East
Dallas 11-5
NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia 10-6
Washington 6-10
Super Bowl champs have too much to replace to win the division, but it’s still a team that can compete (see previous post for further analysis). Dallas is just a tad too talented for the rest, but Philadelphia will hang tough. The Eagles success hinges on the health of Donovan McNabb, but their wide receivers are just too – how do you say it – underwhelming? – to make a difference. Washington struggles under first-year head coach Jim Zorn, but they could be a factor in a year.
NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 9-7
Chicago 7-9
Detroit 6-10
So what if Brett is gone? The Pack are still set up to be a force in the NFC for years with a stalwart defense lead by AJ Hawk and a solid running game, courtesy of Ryan Grant. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is no Favre, but he doesn’t have to be. Minnesota’s passing game will bring the team down, and Chicago’s resurgent defense will bring them up (but not enough to overcome Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman, or whoever they put in at quarterback). Detroit’s passing game will decline with the departure of Mike Martz, but they will rediscover a running game with Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson.
NFC South
New Orleans 12-4
Tampa Bay 8-8
Carolina 7-9
Atlanta 5-11
I think New Orleans is the best team in the NFC. A loaded offense with Brees, Bush, Shockey, and Colston, and an improved defense will make a difference. The addition of DT Sedrick Ellis (#7 overall pick was a beast at USC) in the middle will help the run defense, and the pass rush of Will Smith and Charles Grant will help a shaky secondary. Jonathan Vilma will also display the form that won him the 2004 defensive Rookie of the Year award. Joey Galloway finally shows his age, and Earnest Graham goes back to being, well, Earnest Graham. Carolina sputters under the expectations again, and Matt Ryan doesn’t pan out his first year in Atlanta.
NFC West
Seattle 10-6
Arizona 8-8
St. Louis 7-9
San Francisco 6-10
Seattle plays too well at home to not win this division. Any team that wins 7 or 8 games at home already has a jump start, and when you throw in Matt Hasselbeck, you have a recipe for success. Kurt Warner keeps Arizona competitive, though, but the defense is ultimately their undoing. The Rams rebound from a disastrous 2007, but Marc Bulger won’t be the same. Expect them to struggle, but start showing signs of life again. San Francisco is an absolute mess, but don’t blame head coach Mike Nolan. It’s not his fault Alex Smith was a product of the Urban Meyer system.
AFC Playoff Teams
1. New England
2. San Diego
3. Indianapolis
4. Pittsburgh
5. Jacksonville
6. Buffalo
AFC Championship
New England over San Diego
Shawn Merriman’s knee isn’t bad enough to lose the division, but it’s not good enough to beat the Patriots. Remember, New England still has the best coach (Belichick), best quarterback (Brady), and best wide receiver (Moss), and one heck of a defense. Speaking of which, watch for Jerod Mayo to be the defensive Rookie of the Year.
NFC Playoff Teams
1. New Orleans
2. Dallas
3. Green Bay
4. Seattle
5. NY Giants
6. Philadelphia
NFC Championship
New Orleans over Dallas
Tony Romo actually wins a playoff game, but still doesn’t get to the Super Bowl. New Orleans somehow finds a way to score enough points to win, and it costs Wade Phillips his job. Home field advantage plays a huge factor in this one, and Dallas can thank the tough NFC East for costing them a game or two for a trip to New Orleans. However, they get what they want when Jason Garrett agrees to become their head coach.
Super Bowl
New England over New Orleans
You don’t think the Pats are hungry after losing last year’s Super Bowl? This won’t be a perfect season, but they won’t be dogged by those questions all season. Brady cements himself as the best quarterback who ever lived, and Randy Moss and Junior Seau get their long-awaited rings. Last year’s version is still the best team to ever play (even without the ring, and it’s something I will contest forever) and this team wouldn’t beat last year’s, but they are still the best team this year, and that’s all that matters to Belichick.
Friday, September 5, 2008
Thursday, September 4, 2008
2008 New York Giants Preview
Are you ready for some football? The college football season started this past weekend, but now it’s time for the real deal. Thursday night will kick off the NFL season as the New York Football Giants will have their ceremonious home opener against the Washington Redskins (NBC 7 pm). The defending Super Bowl champions – yes I just had to say that to hear it in my own words, ‘cause it still sounds incredible, and unbelievable – look to prove the critics wrong again in 2008.
To say the least, this will be a difficult season for the Giants in many respects. Starting with the obvious, they have lost 4 starters on the defensive side of the ball, all of which were important to the team’s recent success. Gibril Wilson was one of the most underrated safeties in the NFC, but now he is with Oakland; and Kawika Mitchell, the team’s only significant free agent signee before last season, is now in Buffalo.
But the biggest losses are on the defensive line, where future Hall of Famer Michael Strahan retired and now injured All-Pro Osi Umenyiora once were. The two combined for 22 sacks last season, and even more, they were game changers. Losing one wasn’t catastrophic due to the emergence of Justin Tuck, the backup defensive end who registered 10 sacks last season. However, with Umenyiora now out with a knee injury, Matthias Kiwanuka has now been forced to move to defensive end.
Here is why I don’t think it’s AS big of a deal as people are making it out to be. Steve Spagnuolo’s system with his defense is complex, both for the Giants players and especially for the opposing offenses. Just ask the Patriots offensive line, who had no idea what was coming at them in February. Look at the place he came from: Philadelphia. In their years of dominance, with the exception of 2004 when they had Jevon Kearse, the Eagles never had a traditionally dominant pass rusher. Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson was able to use schemes to make his front seven more formidable as a unit than they were as individual parts.
I believe Spagnuolo has the same type of system in place in New York. While the individuals this year may not blow you away – Tuck, Barry Cofield, Fred Robbins, Kiwanuka, Antonio Pierce, Gerris Wilkinson, and Danny Clark – the scheming will have the players appear to be better than they actually are. While this isn’t a knock against Kawika Mitchell, who I thought was a solid linebacker in the system, I don’t regard his loss as highly as others have. Last year, the G-Men lost their best pass-rushing linebacker in Kiwanuka to a broken leg in week 6, and had to rely on Wilkinson and career underachiever Reggie Torbor at linebacker. Having another two who have learned the system won’t be as big of a downgrade as people think.
This is also possible because the secondary is as good as it has been in many years. With Aaron Ross proving himself at the end of last year, and Corey Webster’s incredible performance in the playoffs, the addition of Kenny Phillips in the draft makes this secondary young and extremely talented. Word out of Giants camp was that Webster and Ross were playing great and had easily sealed the deal as the starting cornerbacks. That leaves key contributors Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters as the Nickel and Dime cornerbacks, which is better than what most teams have. I think that the pass rush doesn’t need to sustain itself as much as it needed to in recent years because of this secondary improvement, and the Giants defense should be a top-10 defense once again.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants of course lost Jeremy Shockey in the trade to the Saints. Once again, everyone doubts Big Blue’s ability on offense to score and sustain drives, which is precisely what the loyal followers heard after Tiki Barber retired after the 2006 season. Last year there were doubts about the running back depth and how the Giants would overcome the loss of Barber. Those doubts were answered emphatically with outstanding seasons from Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, and Reuben Droughns. Bank on those four to be a huge factor once again in the Giants’ offense.
This year, the questions are at the tight end position. Fact is, Kevin Boss (who’s the Boss?!) is no Jeremy Shockey, and I don’t think anyone plans on him catching 80 balls a year while racking up 800 yards and 9 touchdowns. That’s for the other guys to handle. What they do expect is for Boss to be a solid blocker and catch somewhere around 50 passes and maybe take in 6 touchdowns. I’m not sure if anyone realized this, but Shockey only averaged about 60 catches and 4 touchdowns per year in his six seasons in New York anyway. Sure, he was a huge mismatch on safeties and linebackers, but the Giants didn’t use him as effectively anyway.
This is where the real strength of the Giants offense can come into play: wide receivers. Let’s look at the Giants top seven wide receivers: Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, Domenik Hixon, David Tyree. Yes that’s right. The Super Bowl hero is seventh on the depth chart. We all know what Burress can do and that Toomer is Eli’s favorite security blanket, but did anyone notice how well Steve Smith played when he was healthy? (See playoffs, 4th quarter catch in Super Bowl XLII on final drive) The dude is from USC, has hands of gold, and knows what it’s like to be on the big stage. Expect a huge year from him if he can stay healthy. Manningham is a Michigan guy (like Toomer) who, trust me on this being a Penn State fan and Michigan-hater, can run good routes and surprise a defense with his speed. If he can stay out of trouble, he will be a good player in this league. Moss has to stay healthy, but he, Hixon, and Tyree can all stretch the field when they are healthy. Look for this “weakness,” as the experts are calling it, to be a real strength for the Giants this year.
Finally, that brings us to – not Eli just yet – the offensive line. We’ll simply say this about these guys: Joe Theismann may have said they were the worst offensive line a few years ago, but he would say right now that they are one of the best. They don’t get any publicity, and nobody says that they are one of the best in the league, but this group has played together for a few years and they have gelled. Shaun O’Hara is an invaluable leader, and David Diehl and Chris Snee have really come into their own. There is a reason this rushing game has been so good for so many years. Give some credit to the big guys up front for that.
NOW we can start talking Eli. Put simply, the guy had a great end of the season after one of the worst stretches in the history of the NFL. Eli was terrible from weeks 11-16 last year (from the Minnesota debacle to the crazy game in Buffalo) where he combined for four touchdowns and eight interceptions, while completing 45% of his passes. That’s not a misprint – 45%. He was pathetic, inept, and generally awful – putting it mildly. Then, all of a sudden, he became the golden boy everyone thought he would be starting with that week 17 Patriots game. We all know what happened from there.
But the past is the past and now it’s time to start talking about THIS YEAR’s Eli Manning. What does he have to do? Well exactly what he did in those magical five games. It’s simple, really: keep it simple. Don’t try to be a hero, let the players around you do the hard work. I think Kevin Gilbride understands this as will gear his offense around that, although I do see them taking shots down the field more often with the wide receivers. I think Eli will have an above-average year. Nothing flashy to make him the league MVP, but solid quarterback play.
As for predictions, here is where I see this team. The Giants are one of only four teams to have made the playoffs each of the last four years – along with the Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks. So why does everyone think that every year this team will be 6-10, 7-9 at best? I’m not sure. Eli is a true leader on this team, and they have overcome a lot going into every season the past three years. Who’s to say that a few losses in personnel won’t hurt them this year? Everything is eerily similar to last year’s beginning, with the exception that the Giants have newly minted rings on their fingers. This team should get out of the gate quickly with games against Washington, St. Louis, and Cincinnati, but the last four games could be disastrous – Philadelphia, at Dallas, Carolina, at Minnesota. If they play up to their capabilities, they should win three of those last four, but if they falter, they could go 0-4 in that stretch.
I see them splitting their division schedule to go 3-3. I imagine them taking at least three of four from the NFC West (the game against the Seahawks is in the Meadowlands, so that’s a coin flip), which brings their record to 6-4. As for the out of conference games (AFC North), I see Cleveland having a down year, Baltimore and Cincinnati should be wins, and Pittsburgh should be a loss considering how strong they are at home, bringing the record to 9-5. This brings us to the last two games against the Panthers and Vikings, who are two teams that could be anywhere from division winners to third-place finishers in their division. They rely on the quarterback position, and banking on Jake Delhomme is risky for me, and Tarvaris Jackson has proven little, if anything so far in his career. I’ll say they split those games as well, bringing them to a record of 10-6 overall. That should place them second in the division behind Dallas, and one spot ahead of Philadelphia. Washington should struggle with Jim Zorn, finishing fourth, although that doesn’t mean you’re a bad team in the NFC East.
Look for another Wild Card this year, Giants fans. 10-6 is not out of the question, although with this team’s potential, neither is 12-4. I’ll stick with 10 wins, which every Giants fan should be happy with this year.
To say the least, this will be a difficult season for the Giants in many respects. Starting with the obvious, they have lost 4 starters on the defensive side of the ball, all of which were important to the team’s recent success. Gibril Wilson was one of the most underrated safeties in the NFC, but now he is with Oakland; and Kawika Mitchell, the team’s only significant free agent signee before last season, is now in Buffalo.
But the biggest losses are on the defensive line, where future Hall of Famer Michael Strahan retired and now injured All-Pro Osi Umenyiora once were. The two combined for 22 sacks last season, and even more, they were game changers. Losing one wasn’t catastrophic due to the emergence of Justin Tuck, the backup defensive end who registered 10 sacks last season. However, with Umenyiora now out with a knee injury, Matthias Kiwanuka has now been forced to move to defensive end.
Here is why I don’t think it’s AS big of a deal as people are making it out to be. Steve Spagnuolo’s system with his defense is complex, both for the Giants players and especially for the opposing offenses. Just ask the Patriots offensive line, who had no idea what was coming at them in February. Look at the place he came from: Philadelphia. In their years of dominance, with the exception of 2004 when they had Jevon Kearse, the Eagles never had a traditionally dominant pass rusher. Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson was able to use schemes to make his front seven more formidable as a unit than they were as individual parts.
I believe Spagnuolo has the same type of system in place in New York. While the individuals this year may not blow you away – Tuck, Barry Cofield, Fred Robbins, Kiwanuka, Antonio Pierce, Gerris Wilkinson, and Danny Clark – the scheming will have the players appear to be better than they actually are. While this isn’t a knock against Kawika Mitchell, who I thought was a solid linebacker in the system, I don’t regard his loss as highly as others have. Last year, the G-Men lost their best pass-rushing linebacker in Kiwanuka to a broken leg in week 6, and had to rely on Wilkinson and career underachiever Reggie Torbor at linebacker. Having another two who have learned the system won’t be as big of a downgrade as people think.
This is also possible because the secondary is as good as it has been in many years. With Aaron Ross proving himself at the end of last year, and Corey Webster’s incredible performance in the playoffs, the addition of Kenny Phillips in the draft makes this secondary young and extremely talented. Word out of Giants camp was that Webster and Ross were playing great and had easily sealed the deal as the starting cornerbacks. That leaves key contributors Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters as the Nickel and Dime cornerbacks, which is better than what most teams have. I think that the pass rush doesn’t need to sustain itself as much as it needed to in recent years because of this secondary improvement, and the Giants defense should be a top-10 defense once again.
On the other side of the ball, the Giants of course lost Jeremy Shockey in the trade to the Saints. Once again, everyone doubts Big Blue’s ability on offense to score and sustain drives, which is precisely what the loyal followers heard after Tiki Barber retired after the 2006 season. Last year there were doubts about the running back depth and how the Giants would overcome the loss of Barber. Those doubts were answered emphatically with outstanding seasons from Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, and Reuben Droughns. Bank on those four to be a huge factor once again in the Giants’ offense.
This year, the questions are at the tight end position. Fact is, Kevin Boss (who’s the Boss?!) is no Jeremy Shockey, and I don’t think anyone plans on him catching 80 balls a year while racking up 800 yards and 9 touchdowns. That’s for the other guys to handle. What they do expect is for Boss to be a solid blocker and catch somewhere around 50 passes and maybe take in 6 touchdowns. I’m not sure if anyone realized this, but Shockey only averaged about 60 catches and 4 touchdowns per year in his six seasons in New York anyway. Sure, he was a huge mismatch on safeties and linebackers, but the Giants didn’t use him as effectively anyway.
This is where the real strength of the Giants offense can come into play: wide receivers. Let’s look at the Giants top seven wide receivers: Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, Domenik Hixon, David Tyree. Yes that’s right. The Super Bowl hero is seventh on the depth chart. We all know what Burress can do and that Toomer is Eli’s favorite security blanket, but did anyone notice how well Steve Smith played when he was healthy? (See playoffs, 4th quarter catch in Super Bowl XLII on final drive) The dude is from USC, has hands of gold, and knows what it’s like to be on the big stage. Expect a huge year from him if he can stay healthy. Manningham is a Michigan guy (like Toomer) who, trust me on this being a Penn State fan and Michigan-hater, can run good routes and surprise a defense with his speed. If he can stay out of trouble, he will be a good player in this league. Moss has to stay healthy, but he, Hixon, and Tyree can all stretch the field when they are healthy. Look for this “weakness,” as the experts are calling it, to be a real strength for the Giants this year.
Finally, that brings us to – not Eli just yet – the offensive line. We’ll simply say this about these guys: Joe Theismann may have said they were the worst offensive line a few years ago, but he would say right now that they are one of the best. They don’t get any publicity, and nobody says that they are one of the best in the league, but this group has played together for a few years and they have gelled. Shaun O’Hara is an invaluable leader, and David Diehl and Chris Snee have really come into their own. There is a reason this rushing game has been so good for so many years. Give some credit to the big guys up front for that.
NOW we can start talking Eli. Put simply, the guy had a great end of the season after one of the worst stretches in the history of the NFL. Eli was terrible from weeks 11-16 last year (from the Minnesota debacle to the crazy game in Buffalo) where he combined for four touchdowns and eight interceptions, while completing 45% of his passes. That’s not a misprint – 45%. He was pathetic, inept, and generally awful – putting it mildly. Then, all of a sudden, he became the golden boy everyone thought he would be starting with that week 17 Patriots game. We all know what happened from there.
But the past is the past and now it’s time to start talking about THIS YEAR’s Eli Manning. What does he have to do? Well exactly what he did in those magical five games. It’s simple, really: keep it simple. Don’t try to be a hero, let the players around you do the hard work. I think Kevin Gilbride understands this as will gear his offense around that, although I do see them taking shots down the field more often with the wide receivers. I think Eli will have an above-average year. Nothing flashy to make him the league MVP, but solid quarterback play.
As for predictions, here is where I see this team. The Giants are one of only four teams to have made the playoffs each of the last four years – along with the Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks. So why does everyone think that every year this team will be 6-10, 7-9 at best? I’m not sure. Eli is a true leader on this team, and they have overcome a lot going into every season the past three years. Who’s to say that a few losses in personnel won’t hurt them this year? Everything is eerily similar to last year’s beginning, with the exception that the Giants have newly minted rings on their fingers. This team should get out of the gate quickly with games against Washington, St. Louis, and Cincinnati, but the last four games could be disastrous – Philadelphia, at Dallas, Carolina, at Minnesota. If they play up to their capabilities, they should win three of those last four, but if they falter, they could go 0-4 in that stretch.
I see them splitting their division schedule to go 3-3. I imagine them taking at least three of four from the NFC West (the game against the Seahawks is in the Meadowlands, so that’s a coin flip), which brings their record to 6-4. As for the out of conference games (AFC North), I see Cleveland having a down year, Baltimore and Cincinnati should be wins, and Pittsburgh should be a loss considering how strong they are at home, bringing the record to 9-5. This brings us to the last two games against the Panthers and Vikings, who are two teams that could be anywhere from division winners to third-place finishers in their division. They rely on the quarterback position, and banking on Jake Delhomme is risky for me, and Tarvaris Jackson has proven little, if anything so far in his career. I’ll say they split those games as well, bringing them to a record of 10-6 overall. That should place them second in the division behind Dallas, and one spot ahead of Philadelphia. Washington should struggle with Jim Zorn, finishing fourth, although that doesn’t mean you’re a bad team in the NFC East.
Look for another Wild Card this year, Giants fans. 10-6 is not out of the question, although with this team’s potential, neither is 12-4. I’ll stick with 10 wins, which every Giants fan should be happy with this year.
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