New York. Boston. Manning. Brady. Cinderella. Perfection.
In one of the most intriguing Super Bowls in recent memory, there are enough story lines to make this the most-watched Super Bowl of all time. Two of the biggest media markets in the country, and arguably the two largest on the east coast, are participating, and the old New York-Boston rivalry gets renewed, but this time it’s on the football field, not on the diamond.
The New York Football Giants continued their improbable run to Glendale by going into the frozen tundra we call Lambeau Field in the third coldest NFL game of all time and coming out with a victory in overtime. Lawrence Tynes, the kicker who was going to be run out of New York for missing two field goals in regulation, came through with a 47-yard field goal, the longest by an opponent in playoff history at Lambeau Field. Plaxico Burress had the greatest game by a Giants wide receiver in playoff history by snagging 11 balls for 151 yards. The Giants defense was able to shut down the vaunted passing attack of the Packers and Brett Favre, picking him off in overtime to set up the game-winning field goal.
The Patriots, on the other hand, survived a mediocre performance by Tom Brady and beat the San Diego Chargers 21-12 in Foxborough. Brady threw three interceptions but Laurence Maroney rushed for 122 yards and a touchdown to carry the offense to victory. The Patriots defense stepped up when in the defensive red zone, as the Chargers made three trips inside the Patriots 20 yard line, but only came up with three field goals. The game put people’s confidence back into the aging defense, especially the linebackers, who were being questioned as the season wore on.
After two weeks of debates and a ridiculous amount of analysis by the most random former football players the planet has to offer (Solomon Wilcox, Brian Baldinger, Jaime Dukes??) we finally have come to Super Bowl weekend, where we can get to the game.
This game reminds me of Super Bowl XXV where the Giants were underdogs to the Buffalo Bills and their high-powered offense led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, and Andre Reed. The Giants were trotting out a questioned quarterback in Jeff Hostetler and were coming off a road victory in the NFC Championship game against the San Francisco 49ers on a last second field goal by Matt Bahr. They also had a very deep running game with Otis Anderson, Rodney Hampton, and Dave Meggett, much like this year’s group of Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns.
Now, to this year's game. I like what the Giants have been doing this postseason, keeping Eli Manning controlled and not asking him to win the games for them. He has kept his passes from the short to intermediate range and allowed his receivers to work for yards after the catch, and that has been successful. The only time they asked Eli to “win the game” so to speak was at the end of the first half of the Cowboys game when he led them on that crucial touchdown drive to get the Giants back into the game.
The Giants rushing attack, led by Brandon Jacobs, poses a big problem for the Patriots, as their aging linebackers will have to tackle the 265-pound Jacobs about 20 times per game. Jacobs has been less productive this postseason, but he also has been up against the top defenses in the NFC. I believe that Jacobs will be reasonably effective and the Giants will run the ball early and often in order to keep the Patriots offense off the field. One of the more overlooked things in this game is that Ahmad Bradshaw will be in the lineup, which he wasn’t in the week 17 game between these two teams. As it has been documented many times before, Bradshaw provides the Giants with a very good change of pace from Jacobs, and has a great ability to break tackles and extend his rushes. I like the Giants ability to produce on the ground more in this game than they did in the first matchup against New England.
Through the air, I think you will see much of the same things the Giants have been doing all postseason, utilizing short completions to move the ball down the field. It will be tough against the Patriots secondary, although they can be vulnerable down the middle of the field. The Giants will take a few shots downfield with Plaxico Burress to keep the New England defense honest. Contrary to the Chargers, the Giants had a lot of success in the red zone against the Patriots, scoring four touchdowns in their four trips. They will need to do that again if they want to win this contest. They will have the ability to throw the fade route to Plaxico Burress, and they have also been able to complete passes in the middle of the field in the red zone recently (see week 17 touchdowns to Brandon Jacobs and Kevin Boss, Bucs game touchdown to Amani Toomer, Dallas game touchdown to Toomer). The Giants know that they cannot settle for field goals, and will do their best to punch it into the end zone. They had some struggles against the Packers, but I believe the friendlier conditions will help them in that regard, especially Eli, who plays much better in warm weather.
On the other side of the ball, New England’s potent offense likely hinges on the success of Tom Brady, who has had an incredible season. Brady, as you know, has been scrutinized this week for his slightly sprained right ankle. I believe that while it won’t be a huge factor, it will affect him a little bit against that Giants pass rush. You know that the Giants will be getting to Brady, even if they aren’t sacks, and you just might see them going after that ankle to make Brady uncomfortable. The Giants were able to do this in week 17, and that was without Sam Madison and Kawika Mitchell. The two weeks in between games really helped the Giants defense get healthy, especially in the secondary where they have been thin recently.
Randy Moss has been quiet during the playoffs, as teams have been double teaming him and forcing Brady to use his other receivers, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, and Ben Watson. The Giants will most likely jam the receivers, especially Moss, at the line and then roll a safety, likely Gibril Wilson, over the top of Moss to take away the deep ball that burned the Giants the last time. However, the Giants will need to keep Welker under wraps and limit his yards after the catch in order to be successful. If the secondary can keep Welker under wraps and limit Moss’ impact, and maybe come up with a turnover or two, then they have a real chance at winning this football game.
The Giants defense overall has done a very good job in this postseason, allowing only 17 points per game to some of the top offenses in the NFL this year and some of the best passing attacks there are. If they can have similar success against the Patriots, they will be in great position to win. That being said, there isn’t an offense in the league that compares to the Patriots’ this year, and very few in NFL history are comparable. Also, the Giants front four will have a tough task against the New England offensive line, which is one of the best in the NFL. The Giants will be forced to bring extra men with their exotic blitz schemes, which has been effective in the second halves of games this season. Expect to see corners, safeties, and linebackers all blitzing at various times throughout this game to force Brady into quick decisions.
Overall, I think this is going to be a very exciting and very tight game. The Giants must control the clock in order to stay close in this game, and I believe they will be able to do that. Eli Manning cannot, under any circumstances, turn the ball over, and he must make smart reads in order to keep the ball out of New England’s hands. Also, the Giants must do something on every possession. In the last matchup, they were only able to score touchdowns on the first and last possessions of each half, aided by a kick return touchdown. If they are to win this game, they will have to produce on most of their possessions. New York wasn’t able to do that, and they were dominated in time of possession, which killed their defense in the second half. However, Bradshaw and Jacobs will be running together, and that should make a positive impact for the Giants. They should be able to wear out the Patriots linebackers and use the run to take the pressure off of Eli. The Patriots on the other hand, will use their passing attack in order to score points on the Giants. While I have been impressed with the defensive attack of the Giants, the Patriots are a completely different animal. Their offensive line picks up blitzes better than anyone else in the NFL, and you can’t rattle Tom Brady. The secondary also worries me, and I believe the Pats will exploit the weaknesses the Giants have.
While I think the Giants can and will be able to play a close game with the Patriots, I think the offense of New England will be too much for the Giants to keep up with. This will be a close, competitive game, but in the end, the Patriots will come out on top. And heck, I have picked against Big Blue all postseason, so yeah, I’m doing this out of superstition as well. Hopefully, I’m wrong again.
Prediction: Patriots 31-24 (I really, really hope I’m wrong)