After 17 weeks of regular-season football, we have come to the much-anticipated 2008 NFL playoffs. The playoffs are littered with surprising stories like the Jacksonville Jaguars and their quarterback, David Garrard; the Washington Redskins honoring their slain safety Sean Taylor; and of course, the Green Bay Packers and their lovable, record-setting quarterback Brett Favre. But of course, the favorites reside in New England, where the perfect Patriots look to become the second team ever to go undefeated and win the Super Bowl.
Today, we look at the NFC playoff picture and see who will represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
NFC
The story of the year in the NFC has been Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers coming back from am 8-8 season last year in which they won their final 4 games, to go 13-3 this year and win the number 2 seed in the NFC. However, the number 1 seed went to the Dallas Cowboys, lead by a guy you might have heard of named Tony Romo. Romo brings the Cowboys in at 13-3, but they are a team that is struggling recently, going 1-2 in their last three games. There is no doubt that the offense is prolific, ranking 3rd in the NFL in yards per game and 2nd in points at 28.4. The passing attack has been the most lethal weapon they have with over 250 per game, and they have been able to protect Romo, allowing only 25 sacks all year. However, it is Terrell Owens who makes this offense click. In their six close games or losses this season, Owens has not played a big factor in the game. In a 25-24 victory over Buffalo, he only had 25 receiving yards; a 48-27 loss to New England resulted in only 66 receiving yards; in the comeback win over Detroit, he registered 21 receiving yards; he had only 27 yards in their loss to Philadelphia; and only 48 receiving yards before leaving with an injury in a 7 point victory over Carolina; finally, in their season-ending loss to Washington, in which he didn’t play, Tony Romo looked hesitant in the pocket and was 7/16 for 86 yards and an interception. It’s safe to say that without Owens producing at a high level, Romo and the Cowboys look lost. Romo has 19 interceptions on the year, which is only one less than Eli Manning has on the year. In his last three games, he has only one touchdown and seven interceptions, so it is safe to say they are not coming in on a high note. The word around the Cowboys is that Owens may not play in their first playoff game in two weeks, which would be demoralizing to this offense.
Their defense has impressed for most of the year, ranking 9th in the NFL in yards against and 13th in points against at 20.3 per game, however, in games against playoff teams, they have given up 30 points per game, which won’t cut it in the playoffs. DeMarcus Ware, who has had a stellar season under Wade Phillips with 14 sacks and 84 tackles, must step up along with the rest of that defense if they would like to advance to the Super Bowl.
There were not many people outside of Green Bay that believed this team could make it to the playoffs. You are looking at one of the few who believed. Of course, did I think they would be THIS good? Absolutely not. Brett Favre has canned the risky throws this year in favor of the shorter, high-percentage throws, and it ended up with him throwing for 4000+ yards for the 5th time in his illustrious career. He has led the Packers offense to the 2nd most yards per game in the NFL and the 2nd best passing attack in the league, all while scoring the 4th most points in the league at 27.2 points per game. However, the defense is nothing to sneeze at either as they rank 6th in the NFL in points against at only 18.2 per game. While Favre was putting up big numbers, analysts were saying that Green Bay didn’t have a reliable running game for when the weather got nasty. However, Ryan Grant has emerged as one of the best young backs in the league. Since he became the starter, he has rushed for 927 yards in those ten games, and in the last eight, he averaged 5.5 yards per carry and had 8 touchdowns. If the Packers can get that kind of production from Grant in the playoffs, then they will have a great shot at making it to Arizona for Super Bowl XLII.
Seattle has once again successfully gone under the radar and won the NFC West for the fourth straight season. However, they have done it differently than in years past. While Shaun Alexander was the focus of the offense in previous years, he has experienced a few down years which has led to the emergence of Matt Hasselbeck as a premier passer in the NFL. He has led them to the 8th best passing attack in the league and the 9th best scoring offense at 24.6 points per game. However, they say defense wins championships, and Seattle has one of the better ones in the league. While they rank 15th in yards against, they stiffen up with their backs against the wall, ranking 6th at 18.2 points against, tied with Green Bay. It is their pass defense which is most impressive, as they have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league, are fourth in interceptions, and have the second best defensive quarterback efficiency, as passers only have a 73.0 QB rating against them. Patrick Kerney left Atlanta at the right time, and has taken his game to another level this year, registering 14.5 sacks coming off the edge. Lofa Tatupu and Julian Peterson have gotten even better this year and anchor a linebacker core that is one of the best in the league. However, it is the emergence of Marcus Trufant which has brought this defense to another level. Trufant set a career high this year with 7 interceptions, earning his first Pro Bowl selection. If Seatte is to go far, they will look to the defense to shut down the high-powered passing attacks in the NFC and rely on their own to score points and allow them to move on.
Tampa Bay took advantage of Philadelphia’s mistake in letting Jeff Garcia go by turning him into their solid, if unspectacular, quarterback. Garcia was consistent all season long, throwing only 4 interceptions all year, and 3 of those were in a loss to Jacksonville. By not turning the ball over, he gives his offense a chance to move down the field and put points on the board. He also gives the defense a chance to show why they are once again one of the top units in the NFL. Like the Tampa defenses of old, they ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards against this year, and 3rd in points against at 16.9 per game. They give up the fewest passing yards per game at just over 170, which bodes well for success in the NFC. However, their offense must be able to score points, and they haven’t done that enough this year. They only average 20.9 points per game, and their three 30+ point games came against two of the worst defenses in football in Atlanta and New Orleans. Joey Galloway continues to defy age with another solid season at wideout. The defense has been stout again, led by Derrick Brooks and newcomer Barrett Ruud. Ruud started the year with 78 tackles in the first 8 games, but his production slipped in the second half as he only registered 36 tackles in the team’s final eight games. They also don’t register much pressure on offense, which could turn out to be a problem. They come in losing 3 of their last 4, with their only victory coming against Atlanta in week 15. They must turn around their play and do it quickly if they are going to move on, as they have a tough first round draw in the New York Giants.
The New York Giants were another welcome surprise this season, finishing 10-6 in the always tough NFC East. When Tiki Barber left the Giants after the 2006 season, most believed the Giants would fade out of the playoff picture and Tom Coughlin would not be able to bring this team back to the playoffs, losing his job in the process. However, Coughlin has brought this team back to the playoffs for a third consecutive year, something only the Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks can say they have done as well. The Giants have gone back to their old-school offensive ways, using the run to anchor their offense. They ranked 4th in the NFL this year by rushing for 134 yards per game using a plethora of backs, including Brandon Jacobs, Reuben Droughns, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward. Jacobs, injured throughout parts of the season, ended up with over 1000 yards rushing and a 5 yard per carry average. Droughns has become the short yardage back, rushing for only 275 yards this year but 6 touchdowns. Yet, no matter what the running game does, the spotlight is focused squarely on Eli Manning, who, in his fourth year in the NFL, has yet to lead the Giants to a playoff victory. This year we saw his completion percentage drop, his touchdowns drop (albeit, just one), and his interceptions rise, an ugly threesome. However, we saw something out of Eli in the team’s last regular season game against New England that we haven’t seen a lot of in his four years in New York: poise. He finished with 251 yards and 4 touchdowns, often leading the Giants on important scoring drives to keep them in the game. The good news for the Giants is that they are out of Giants Stadium, where they were only 3-5 this season, and get to go on the road, where they went 7-1, their only loss coming in the season opener at Dallas in a close game. The other good news for the Giants is that their defense is playing extremely well, ranking 7th in total defense, 8th against the rush, and 1st in sacks. However, they are weak in the secondary, as Sam Madison is just too old to be relied upon if he cannot jam receivers at the line of scrimmage. They are arguably the worst secondary of all twelve playoff teams, but their pass rush allows them to mask that problem. Osi Umenyiora is headed back to the Pro Bowl with 13 sacks on the year, and his fellow defensive end Michael Strahan registered 9. However, surprising Justin Tuck made huge contributions from the defensive tackle position, notching 10 sacks. Fred Robbins is a stud in the middle as well, stuffing the run and coming up with 5.5 sacks himself. If the Giants can take advantage of Tampa Bay’s mediocre offensive line and pressure Jeff Garcia, they can give their offense good field position to start their drives. Expect the Giants to use the run to set up the pass throughout the playoffs, taking pressure off of Manning to do too much. The defense should be able to shut a team like Tampa Bay down, but we’ll see what they can do against better competition, such as the Cowboys and Packers.
The Washington Redskins are the feel good story of the year in the NFL, as they have come back from the tragic shooting of teammate Sean Taylor to improbably make the playoffs. Besides Taylor, the center of it all has been backup quarterback Todd Collins, who hadn’t started a game since 1997, yet has led the Redskins to three consecutive victories and into the playoffs. When starter Jason Campbell went down with a leg injury against the Bears, it seemed that all hope had been lost for a playoff spot, yet Collins has brought higher production out of Washington’s offense since stepping in, as the offense has averaged 26.25 points when he is playing, whereas they averaged only 19 points with Campbell in. Their defense has been dominant against the run all season long, ranking 4th in the NFL giving up only 91 rushing yards per game. However, they have been somewhat susceptible to the pass, allowing an average of 214 yards per game, which is middle of the pack in the NFL. This could be attributed to an average pass rush, which is lead by Andre Carter’s 10.5 sacks this season. However, the rest of the Redskins starters on the defensive line only have 5.5 sacks between them, which would allow teams to focus on Carter and nullify his production. London Fletcher has continued to produce at middle linebacker, conjuring up images of his younger days with 129 tackles this year. The secondary is a weakness for the Redskins, obviously with the loss of Taylor but also with cornerback Carlos Rogers being put on injured reserve earlier in the year with a knee injury. That has forced Fred Smoot into action and he has not performed consistently, opening up one side of the field to the pass. If they are to advance, they will need their pass rush to step it up to take pressure off the depleted secondary. If they cannot overcome this, then teams will be able to move the ball downfield and score too many points for this Washington offense to overcome.
So what will happen in the NFC? Wild Card weekend will showcase Seattle’s deafening 12th man, which will be one of many reasons the Redskins will have trouble with the Seahawks. Hasselbeck should have no trouble picking apart the Washington secondary and racking up points on their defense. That will put a lot of pressure on Collins to make big plays, which I don’t believe this offense is capable of doing. You can bank on the Seahawks moving on to Lambeau Field next week. The Giants should be able to get pressure on Bucs QB Jeff Garcia, which will force him to use his legs. He has been banged up all year, and you know the Giants pass rushers are looking to pound him. Eli won’t be looked at to throw much against the stifling Bucs secondary, so the Bucs can expect a heavy dose of Brandon Jacobs. I think the Giants beat the Bucs and move on to face Dallas. The result of the Dallas-New York game will hinge on the health of TO. If Owens isn’t healthy, Romo will have a lot of trouble finding receivers. Owens was huge in both games against the G-Men this year, racking up 212 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, the Giants have been able to do a lot of damage to Dallas’ defense each time they met. They can throw the deep ball over the Cowboys weak safeties, and have a punishing running game to keep them honest. If TO doesn’t play, I think the Giants have what it takes to win. However, I can’t imagine Owens doesn’t play, so I’m going with the Cowboys. Seattle and Green Bay played at Lambeau Field a few years ago, when Matt Hasselbeck made his ill-fated guarantee over the referee’s microphone at the start of overtime, saying “We want the ball and we’re going to score.” Well a few minutes later, Al Harris was running an interception thrown by Hasselbeck into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown. There will be none of that the second time around, as Green Bay should handle this Seattle team. Seattle is only 3-5 on the road, and Lambeau Field is one of the biggest home field advantages in all of sports. Favre will use the short passing game and the running of Ryan Grant to get back to Dallas (if TO plays against the Giants, otherwise they’ll be back at Lambeau to play Big Blue) and seek revenge for their loss earlier this season.
Assuming Dallas-Green Bay is our NFC Championship game, we will have another over-hyped media festival of Tony Romo vs. Brett Favre. You’ll hear a lot of the term “gunslinger” used in the build up for that game, even though neither man uses a gun at work. And yet, this game will simply be played to see who will get slammed in the Super Bowl by the AFC. But hey, the game has to be played, so we might as well see who is going to win. With the game being in Dallas, the Cowboys get to avoid dreaded Lambeau Field, which is much more important than you may think. While Brett Favre may be 0-9 in Dallas in his career, he doesn’t fear the dome with the hole in the roof. The Packers and Favre got away from their game plan last time in Dallas as Favre took too many downfield risks instead of staying with the year-long plan of short passes. I would bet Favre still takes those downfield shots, but at a far less rate, allowing them to pick up yards underneath while still picking on Roy Williams at safety. They will have more of the success they had the first time around, but this time with Favre instead of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The Dallas passing game should still thrive as Al Harris simply can’t matchup against TO. Harris is too slow to keep up with Owens, who will use his size at the line to get off the jams Harris uses at the line of scrimmage and find himself open. If they double cover him, that allows Jason Witten to be used underneath against the linebackers, which can be lethal. Marion Barber should also be able to power into the Green Bay defense for sizeable gains, and the Dallas offense will be able to outscore Green Bay. That would send Romo and the Cowboys to Arizona for Super Bowl XLII.
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