After 17 weeks of regular-season football, we have come to the much-anticipated 2008 NFL playoffs. The playoffs are littered with surprising stories like the Jacksonville Jaguars and their quarterback, David Garrard; the Washington Redskins honoring their slain safety Sean Taylor; and of course, the Green Bay Packers and their lovable, record-setting quarterback Brett Favre. But of course, the favorites reside in New England, where the perfect Patriots look to become the second team ever to go undefeated and win the Super Bowl.
Today, we look at the AFC playoff picture and see who will represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
AFC
Obviously, we have to start the playoff preview by talking about the undefeated Patriots. They have a lethal passing attack led by Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Brady set an NFL record with 50 touchdown passes this year, and also threw for an NFL-leading 4,806 yards. He has won 3 Super Bowls, and yet this is his best season to date. Moss had an NFL record 23 touchdown receptions while hauling in 1,493 receiving yards on the year. Wes Welker is another outstanding wideout who was tied for the league lead with 112 catches on the year. However, their defense is also statistically stout, ranking 4th in the NFL in both yards and points against. They have proven that they can win close games, something that you need to be able to do in the playoffs.
However, this team is far from perfect, contrary to what their record shows. A key to beating this team is being able to score early to keep the pressure on them and their defense, and it allows teams to run on a defense that is suspect against the run. While they were 10th against the rush this year, that stat is misleading because most teams had to abandon the run in order to try and keep up with them. The Patriots rank 26th in yards per rush defensively, as teams average 4.4 yards per carry against them. That bodes well for teams such as the Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, and Jaguars, who can all run the ball effectively.
They say that you can’t count out the champs until you beat them, and that certainly applies to the Indianapolis Colts. They are arguably better this year than they were last year, with Joseph Addai coming into his own in his second season. He has given Peyton Manning a reliable run game to fall back on, which has been key as Marvin Harrison was lost most of the year with a leg injury. However, Harrison should be healthy when the playoffs start, which makes the Colts that much more dangerous on offense. However, it is the Colts defense that has made them better than last year’s version. Quietly, they have lead the league in points against at 16.4 per game, which is the opposite of what we have gotten used to with the Colts. They never gave up more than 25 points in a game, which is less than the 28 points per game they average on offense. In fact, they gave up more than 20 points only 4 times all year, although 3 of those were against playoff teams in the Patriots, Jaguars, and Chargers. You can expect that defense to continue in the playoffs, and remember that defense wins championships.
The third seed in the AFC is the San Diego Chargers who have gone on a tear since a 1-3 start, going 10-2 in their last 12 games, losing only at Minnesota and at Jacksonville. They have gone back to their bread and butter, which is turning around and handing the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson. He has run for 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games, with the only game he didn’t do it in was the season finale against the Chargers, when he wasn’t needed anyway. He has averaged over 6 yards per carry in that stretch, which helped him win the rushing title once again while scoring a total of 18 touchdowns. However, it is also important to note than in the last six games of the year, Philip Rivers had a quarterback rating of over 100 in four of them, including the last three. If Rivers can continue to be efficient and Tomlinson can be the back he is capable of being, the Chargers can make a serious run at the Super Bowl.
Pittsburgh is a team who started off hot and was viewed as a team that could legitimately contend with the Patriots in the AFC. However, after a 7-2 start, they stumbled to the finish line with a 3-4 record and backed in to a division title. Willie Parker was leading the league in rushing before he broke his leg, and he was a huge part of the Steelers offense. However, more glaring is the play of Ben Roethlisberger, who started the year as one of the best in the NFL. After starting the year with seven 200 yard passing games in their first nine, he has only accomplished that feat once in the past seven, although he didn’t play the season finale against Baltimore. Also, with the exception of one game against the lowly Rams, he has not had a QB rating of 100 since a week 9 victory against Baltimore. Without Parker, Big Ben will have to pick up the slack, as well as the normally stifling Steel Curtain defense, which has given up at least 24 points in four straight games.
Jacksonville is the last team anybody wants to face in the playoffs, and the struggling Steelers have that unlucky task. Since starting 5-3, they have gone 6-2 since, although one of those losses was the last game against Houston and the other was a three point loss at Indianapolis. Fred Taylor has been rejuvenated this year, rushing for 598 yards and 4 touchdowns in the last 5 games he played in, as he sat out the finale like all of the Jaguars players. He has averaged 7.6 yards per carry over that time, and with Pittsburgh’s line problems, you can expect that he will rip off some big runs. One of the most underappreciated players in all of football this year, other than Taylor, has been Jags QB David Garrard. He finished 3rd in the league with a 102.1 QB rating and threw only 3 interceptions all year. With their run-first offense and a quarterback who is efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over, you have to like what the Jaguars bring to the table.
Finally, Tennessee is a team that brings a lot of question marks to the table. First, and most importantly, is the status of Vince Young. He got hurt in the last game against the Colts, and they will need him to play well if they are to beat a hot Chargers team. However, LenDale White quietly had a 1000-yard season in his second year in the league. Like the Chargers, they have a strong running game, but their passing game is not at the same level as San Diego’s. Their defense, however, has been a phenomenal turn around. While they were 27th last year in yards given up, they rose all the way to 5th this year. Their wild card game matches strength against strength, as the Chargers rush offense will match up against the Tennessee rush defense. However, if Tennessee can’t garner anything on offense, it likely won’t matter how good their defense appears to be. Expect a short playoff stay for the Titans, but that is what you expect out of the 6 seed anyway.
What can we expect out of the AFC? I believe we will see the Chargers handle the Titans in San Diego and Jacksonville will use that punishing running game and efficient quarterback play to beat the Steelers, who are banged up and have been playing poorly as of late. That would set up divisional round matchups of Patriots-Jaguars and Colts-Chargers. The Patriots-Jaguars game is extremely intriguing, as the Jags have a running game that would be able to chew up clock and keep the vaunted Patriots offense off the field. I’m not saying that they will beat the Patriots, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they did. The Colts-Chargers matchup would underline the importance of quarterback play in the NFL. Philip Rivers has had a roller coaster year, and his inconsistency will cost the Chargers dearly in this one. Peyton Manning and the offense will be able to score and that stout defense will keep the Chargers at bay.
That brings us to the AFC championship game, which should be a rematch of last year’s AFC title game between the Colts and the Patriots. However, this game could not be much more different than last year’s game. This time around, it’s the Patriots who have the high-powered offense and the Colts who have the standout defense. This game will be played in Foxborough where the elements always come in to play. The Patriots have not fared well in poor weather games, often finding their passing attack being adversely affected by wind and poor conditions. If that is the case, which you would expect to be true, the Patriots would have to establish a running game against one of the league’s best defenses. With Bob Sanders healthy, that Colts rush defense takes it to another level, and with the emergence of Ed Johnson on the interior, they have the ability to make you one dimensional. If they can do that, you will be forced to throw against the 2nd best pass defense in the league, as the Colts only give up 173 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, on offense the Colts should be able to run the ball effectively early on against the Patriots defense and open up the passing game with Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzalez. They weren’t all healthy for the regular season matchup against the Patriots, and they still came close to beating them. I believe that the Colts, who are well rested and finally becoming healthy, will be able to turn it on and beat the Patriots in Foxborough to advance to their second consecutive Super Bowl.
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