All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. Today, we look at the Packers-Seahawks game, being played Saturday afternoon at 4:30 on FOX.
The biggest intrigue in this game is the rematch of Brett Favre and Mike Holmgren, who were together in Green Bay during the Super Bowl years. Homgren is still revered in Green Bay, as Holmgren Way is right outside of Lambeau Field. However, his Seattle Seahawks are currently 8 point road underdogs to the Packers, who are the #2 seed in the NFC. Many people, including myself, were impressed with how much Seattle dominated the Redskins, as they outplayed Washington for 55 of the 60 minutes in the game. More than anything else, I was surprised at how easily the defense was able to stop the Redskins’ offense. They held Washington to 4-18 on 3rd down, and were continuously pressuring Todd Collins into incompletions, sacks, and interceptions.
However, Green Bay’s quarterback is just a bit better than Todd Collins. He is the record-setting gunslinger. The league’s only three time MVP. The Super Bowl champion and incomparable (although some people try to do so with Tony Romo, which simply blows my mind) Brett Favre. Favre and the Packers have used a short-pass attack to gain lots of yards and score the 4th most points in the NFL at 27.2 per game.
Seattle’s defense is going to have a tough time having success against Green Bay’s stellar offense. They were only 19th in the league against the pass, and most of their success on defense is due to their pass rush. In their regular-season victories, they registered 40 of their 45 sacks, an average of 2.8 per game. However, when they go against a top 10 offense, like the Packers’ offense is, they only average .75 per game. This reflects in how successful their overall defense is. Overall, they give up just over 18 points per game. However, they give up 26.5 against top 10 offenses, and an astonishing 392 yards on average in those games.
Most importantly, the Packers have allowed only 19 sacks all season. The tackles have gotten a little bit slower and have allowed some more pressure, but you can expect the Packers to counter any problems off the edge by keeping in a tight end to help block the Seahawks edge rushers.
When Seattle has the ball, they have become so one-dimensional that their recent game against the Redskins was viewed as a success on the ground, even though they only picked up 77 yards. They rely heavily on the arm of Matt Hasselbeck to generate offense, which in turn makes them vulnerable to sacks. They gave up 36 sacks this season, and you can expect the Packers excellent pass rush to disrupt the passing game of Seattle. Aaron Kampman is dangerous off the edge, but Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has been slowed by injuries this year after a fast start. He has not registered a sack since Week 12 against Detroit, and that has shown in the Packers overall pass rush. They haven’t had a sack in 4 of their past 5 games, and if they can’t do that against the Seahawks, they might be in trouble.
The Green Bay secondary is one that has done a lot better this year than it did in previous years. Charles Woodson and Al Harris have had rejuvenated seasons, but you cannot overlook the play of Atari Bigby at the safety position. He has five interceptions on the season, and the second year player out of Central Florida will look to snag one against Hasselbeck. The return of Deion Branch should be a boost to this offense, and you can expect a lot of three wide receiver sets to try and neutralize the blitzing linebackers of Green Bay. If they can do that and keep the ball away from Green Bay’s offense, they have a very real chance at winning.
However, I see the Packers offense being explosive and keeping the ball for the majority of the game against Seattle. I believe they will use short passes early to neutralize Seattle’s pass rush, and once Marcus Trufant looks to jump a short route on Brett Favre, they will be able to go over the top for the big play to Greg Jennings. Also, Ryan Grant should play a pivotal role in the offense, continuing his solid season by becoming a change of pace against the Seattle defense. On the defensive side of the ball, I believe the Packers home field advantage will force the Seahawks into some mistakes and the Packers defense will do enough to keep them out of the end zone. Look for the Packers to win this game and go on to the NFC Championship game.
Prediction: Packers 27-17
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