All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. We finish up today, as we look at the Giants-Cowboys game, being played Sunday afternoon at 4:30 on FOX.
This is arguably the most talked about game of the weekend, as this is the third time these two teams meet this season. In the first game of the year, Dallas won an up-and-down shootout with the Giants in the stadium with the hole in the roof 45-35. In the rematch 9 weeks later at the Meadowlands, Dallas once again won a close game 31-21. However, there isn’t as much talk this week about those games as there is talk about the recent Dallas struggles, Terrell Owens’ ankle, and Tony Romo’s love interest, Jessica Simpson. With a hot quarterback in Eli Manning and a defense that has been dominant since Week 3 of the season, the Giants have become a trendy pick this week. But, before we simply pick based on trends, let’s take a look at this game and come to a real conclusion.
We may as well start with the melodrama that is the Dallas Cowboys, who have had all of the media focus this week. Dallas had an explosive offense this year, ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in yards, passing yards, and points. That was consistent with their performances against the Giants, although the second time around, the Giants defense performed much better than the first. However, Dallas was able to nullify the Giants pass rush and exploit the Giants weak secondary. Of the Giants 53 sacks this year, only 2 came against the Cowboys, who have a very good offensive line. The lack of pressure, or should I say, effective pressure, allowed Romo to find open receivers, especially ones named Terrell Owens.
There have been questions about TO’s status for the game on Sunday, but let’s get this straight: Owens is playing, regardless of how well he feels. There are two reasons for this: 1) Owens is a “gamer” and wouldn’t miss this one, or any playoff game, for the world, and 2) Cowboys owner Jerry Jones just might kill Wade Phillips in his sleep if TO doesn’t play.
Owens has been an absolute torture for many teams around the league, but especially the Giants. This year, Owens had 212 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, and it shows no sign of stopping if he plays this weekend. Sam Madison, regarded as the Giants best cornerback for who knows what reason, would most likely be assigned to Owens, and he simply does not have the speed to keep up with him. Combined with the poor coverage abilities of the Giants safeties, Owens should have another good day against Big Blue just by stepping on to the field. His presence opens up the possibilities for tight end Jason Witten and wide receiver Patrick Crayton. Also, Terry Glen may play this weekend, and he has been one of the more underrated receivers in the league.
However, the success of the passing game and the Cowboys as a whole depends on the legs of running back Marion Barber (oh heck, it also has to do with TO, but back to him in a second). In the 7 games in which the Cowboys as a team did not rush for 100 yards, they went 4-3 and threw for 300+ yards only once. You can argue they should have only been 2-5 in those games, as Buffalo and Detroit choked away victories in the last minutes with their shoddy play. Barber, the lead back for Dallas, must be fed the ball at least 20 times in this game to keep the threat of the run there for the Giants. If the neglect to use the running game, the Giants will be able to open up their wide array of blitzes to confuse Romo and force him to make mistakes, which he is prone to do, as evidenced by his 19 interceptions on the year. Going back to TO for a quick second, if you look at my NFC playoff preview, you can see the effectiveness the Cowboys offense lacks when Owens isn’t being fed the ball. It becomes a real problem for them when Owens and Barber aren’t feature players in this offense, and it will be the job of the Giants defense to stop them.
On offense, the Giants have been pretty average all season long, playing to the level of their competition. There are no huge disparities in their point totals whether they play a top 10 or bottom 10 defense, but recently the offense has been playing much better. Since the Redskins debacle, the Giants have averaged 32 points per game. They have gone back to Giants football, pounding the defense with Brandon Jacobs and then using play action and smart passes from Eli Manning to get down the field and score points. In their second game against the Cowboys this year, the Giants were able to dominate time of possession overall, having the ball for almost 10 more minutes than Dallas. However, it was in the second half when the Giants got away from their running game, and outside of one 9 minute drive, the Giants had the ball for a total of 7 minutes on 4 drives. Not surprisingly, Dallas took advantage of more time with the ball to score two critical touchdowns, which proved to be the difference in the game. If the Giants stay true to recent form by running the football around 30 times on Sunday, then use Manning to attack Dallas’ mediocre secondary, they will be able to have success.
In the passing game, Plaxico Burress has been injured all year long, much worse than TO is this week, and he has had an unbelievable year, catching 70 balls for 12 touchdowns. He is the big play threat for New York, and one of Eli’s favorite targets. However, it is Amani Toomer who is critical to the success of the Giants passing game. Toomer is Eli’s security blanket, and he is looked to for big third down completions. On the 9 minute drive last week against Tampa Bay, it was Toomer who, time after time, came up with the big catch to keep the drive going, and eventually, it was Toomer who caught the touchdown pass. Assuming the Cowboys try to keep Burress out of the game, it will be Toomer, fellow wide out Steve Smith, and tight end Kevin Boss who will be responsible for the big chunk of the passing game. Speaking of Boss, he has earned himself a cult following in New York, sparking cheers of “Who’s the Boss?!” amongst Giants fans. If the three of them are able to catch short-to-medium passes and turn them into first downs, that will open up the deep ball to Burress.
Ok, it’s time to wrap it all up and conclude who exactly will win the big game down in Dallas. I believe Dallas will come to their senses and go back to the running game they have lacked since their big win against Green Bay (averaging 72 yards per game). Even if Marion Barber doesn’t have a huge game, the number of carries will be what’s important to keep the Giants defense honest. Because of the threat of the run, Dallas will be able to use play action to open up the Giants secondary. They will find TO, but it will be up to the Giants corners and safeties to tackle him quickly and avoid giving up the big play. I think Terry Glen will be limited in his effectiveness, but Jason Witten should have a big game going against the Giants backup linebackers. I know the Giants defense is playing well, but we saw how troublesome a good set of wide receivers can be for this secondary in the Patriots game.
I think the Giants will run the ball on offense and will be able to keep Dallas off the field for the most part. They will turn and hand the ball of to Brandon Jacobs, who was 3rd in the league in yards per game and also 3rd amongst 1000+ yard rushers in yards per carry, along with Ahmad Bradshaw as a change-of-pace back. Dallas’ defense has struggled against the run lately, and that will continue in this game against Big Blue. Eli will have a fairly effective game, as he always does against this defense, but you can count on one interception. This time, I think we will see the Giants stick to the game plan in the second half of the game, not getting away from the run in order to “keep up” with Dallas. By running the ball, they will keep the Cowboys offense off the field and will use it to get down field.
I have been going back and forth on this pick all week. There are lots of reasons to pick both teams, as the Giants are hot and the Cowboys aren’t, but the Cowboys are going for the season sweep, which they have never completed. However, in typical Giants fashion, I believe they will resort to field goals in the red zone too often, whereas Dallas will score touchdowns. This is going to be a fierce, hard-hitting, close game, just like many of these games are. But in the end, it will be Terrell Owens who has a big game, and a big catch by Jason Witten will set up the winning field goal. And because Romo doesn’t hold for field goals anymore, they won’t screw it up. This game will be close all game, and it will come down to the final minutes, and it will be the best game of the weekend, but in the end, Dallas will prevail.
Prediction: Dallas 31-30 (Although I hope I’m wrong)
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