Last weekend, the New York Football Giants pulled the upset in Dallas, creating one of the best story lines of the week: Eli making it further in the playoffs than his older and more talented brother, Peyton. It also gave us some of the best moments in post-game sports history as we saw Terrell Owens cry to defend his teammate, his quarterback in fact, Jerry Jones have that stunned look on his face as his $60 million investment crumbled in the fourth quarter, Wade Phillips have that dumbfounded look as he lost another playoff game, and Michael Strahan talking smack on TO and the ultra cocky Patrick Crayton. I’m pretty sure I haven’t had a more satisfying victory as a Giants fan since the NFC Championship game against the Vikings 7 years ago when they thrashed them 41-0. Unfortunately for New York, Brett Favre continued his storybook year by beating the Seahawks at Lambeau, and doing it convincingly. Now the road to the Super Bowl goes to Green Bay as the country will watch to see what improbable story continues: the Giants and their 9-1 record on the road with their oft-maligned quarterback, or the Packers and their ageless quarterback leading the young guns to Arizona.
As a die-hard Giants fan, I would obviously love for Big Blue to keep the road warrior theme going, but I believe that this weekend’s test against the Pack is their toughest of the season. I always thought the Packers were a better team than the Cowboys, and it starts with their defense. The Packers have a much better secondary than Dallas does, mostly because they actually have a safety who can cover, unlike Roy Williams, who is inexplicably a Pro Bowler this year. Atari Bigby, who I praised before the playoffs started, had a huge game against Seattle, forcing a fumble and causing the Seahawks wideouts to think twice about catching the ball. The Giants are going to have a problem on offense because those short-to-intermediate routes are going to be tough to come by as the Packers corners, Al Harris and Charles Woodson, get a good jam on receivers at the line of scrimmage, disrupting routes early. The Giants don’t have fast receivers that can take advantage of their slight lack of speed, and that is going to force Eli to try and fit the ball into tight windows. If he is a little bit off, those corners and safeties can step in and pick if off, and you have to wonder how early struggles would mess with Eli’s psyche.
I don’t fear the Green Bay front seven as much as other people do, as they failed to get any sacks in 4 of their last 5 games of the regular season. The Giants offensive line has gotten into the Packers heads a little bit with their so-called “dirty” play, which can only work in the Giants favor. Look for Eli to have solid protection, as the offensive line will most likely double Aaron Kampman and force someone else to beat them. The Giants will have to run the ball effectively in order to stay in this game early on, which means Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw must get big chunks of yards on first down to keep the Giants out of 2nd and 3rd and long situations to keep the defense off of Eli. I think they can do this with good effectiveness and should be able to keep the Packers defense guessing.
The Packers offense poses more problems for the Giants defense than the Cowboys offense did. They have the ability to spread the field and use more receivers to a better effect than Dallas, and their receivers get a lot of yards after the catch, which hurts the Giants because their secondary doesn’t exactly have the best tacklers in the league. Also, the Packers offensive line is incredible, allowing only 19 sacks all season. Combine that with the Packers short-pass attack and you have a recipe for disaster against the Giants. New York loves to blitz and use their front seven to get pressure on the quarterback, but if the Packers only use 3-step drops, then it is almost impossible to get there in time to sack Favre. When passing, the Pack should spread this thin secondary out with 4 and 5 wide receiver sets, forcing practice squad extraordinaire Geoffrey Pope into action more than we would like to see. Also, the Giants are vulnerable deep, as their safeties have trouble in deep coverage against speedy receivers, so when Green Bay takes shots down field, Greg Jennings should be open for Favre.
When running the ball, Green Bay has the former New York Giant Ryan Grant in the backfield. He has become one of the better young backs in the NFL, rushing for 201 yards against the Seahawks last week. The Giants will have to stop Grant if they want their pass rush to get to Favre, and it is going to be very hard to bring Grant down. He has a good burst of speed to make it to the second and third levels of a defense, then has enough power to run over linebackers and safeties. After watching Antonio Pierce get run over by Marion Barber last week, and knowing the tackling struggles of the safeties, the Giants will have a tough time if Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield can’t disrupt the play in the backfield early.
I can’t see the Giants offense being able to keep up with Green Bay’s early on. The Giants will have to lean on Eli more than they have so far this postseason, and he doesn’t perform well when asked to carry the load. I believe that they will be effective and be in the game, but it will be a far cry from last week’s. Favre should have a good game against the Giants depleted secondary and the quick throws will nullify the Giants pass rush. Ryan Grant will keep the defense honest and have a good game as well, although not the monstrous 200 yard game he had last week. By the time the 4th quarter comes though, Grant will become a huge factor and should wear down this Giants defense. Believe me, it hurts to know the season should end this weekend, as they have a much tougher task this weekend than they did last weekend. This Packers team is peaking at the right time, and while the Giants are as well, this Packers squad is more talented and not banged up like the Giants are. The Packers should move on to Arizona and face off against Tom Brady and the undefeated Pats in one of the more entertaining Super Bowls in recent memory. And hey, I picked against the Giants (albeit slightly) last week, so maybe my incorrect pick will come true again…. maybe.
Prediction: Packers 27-17 (Again, I hope I’m wrong)
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