All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. Today, we look at the Patriots-Jaguars game, being played Saturday night at 8:30 on CBS.
This game has been called the most intriguing game by a number of analysts on television. I am excited to see what happens in this game, whether the Jaguars can use their powerful running game to keep the Patriots offense, lead by league MVP Tom Brady, on the sideline.
How effective will the Jaguars be? Let’s take a look, as it’s time to play myth buster here on The Sports Argument.
MYTH: The Patriots can’t run the ball and control the clock.
The Patriots actually ranked 13th in the NFL in rushing yards, which is very good considering their lethal passing attack. In eight of their games this season, they rushed for 130+ yards. Laurence Maroney started finding his groove at the end of the year, running for 100+ yards twice in the last three games. The Patriots have also controlled the ball for 34 minutes or more in seven games this season, and held it for more than 30 minutes eleven times. They may not always use the running game by turning around and handing it to Maroney, but they use short passes to Wes Welker as a substitute to the running game, allowing him to run after the catch, which he is so good at doing.
FACT: The Jaguars will be able to run on the Patriots defense.
When you look at the broad stat sheet, you will see that the Patriots have a top 10 rush defense in the NFL. What gets overlooked, however, is that most teams have to abandon the run early in order to make up deficits that the Patriots create. The Patriots faced the least amount of rushing attempts, but they gave up an average of 4.4 yards per carry, 26th in the NFL. They key is not just being able to rush the ball, but being able to score on most possessions as well, in order to allow yourself to stay in the game.
MYTH: The Jaguars can keep up with the Patriots high-powered offense.
Yes, the Jags were 6th in the NFL with 25.7 points per game this season. However, in games where they went against top 10 offenses where they were asked to keep up with a team of this magnitude, they averaged under 19 per game, and gave up almost 33 per game. They were 0-3 in those games. Yes, their running game will be successful, but if they get down early, they don’t have the kind of offense that is capable of keeping up with
MYTH: The Jaguars can stop the Patriots offense with their defense.
The Jaguars were 10th in the NFL in points against, giving up just 19 points per game, but there is no way they can stop this attack. However, they are completely different against top offenses in the NFL. Against the pass-happy offenses of the Colts and Saints this year, they gave up an average of 319 passing yards and 32.7 points. Their pass rush also struggled to get there, only netting 4 sacks in those 3 games. The teams that have had the most success defensively against the Patriots have gotten pressure on Tom Brady, and this group will most likely struggle against a quality offensive line like
The Patriots may be 16-0, but they are not a perfect team. However, this is not the week that they would be in danger of losing. They have a huge advantage when they are on offense with their passing game, and while they have struggled to establish a true running game recently (less than 100 yards in 4 of their last 6 games), they should be able to use their passing game to beat the Jags. David Garrard proved to me on Saturday night that he is not capable of carrying a team on his own, as he had a dismal 9/21 140 yard, 1 touchdown, 2 interception performance against the Steelers. For the Jags to be in contention in this game, he will have to play better and be more accurate. The Patriots will probably put 8 in the box to stop the run, which the Jaguars did with limited success against the Steelers, and force Garrard to beat them with his arm, which I don’t believe he can do. This game has potential to be close, but don’t bank on it. Look for the Patriots to make it through to the AFC Championship game next weekend.
Prediction: Patriots 34-20
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