All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. Today, we look at the Chargers-Colts game, being played Sunday afternoon at 1:00 on CBS.
This game is a rematch of a Week 10 game played in San Diego where the Chargers took advantage of 6 Peyton Manning interceptions to squeak out a 23-21 victory. Adam Vinatieri shockingly pushed a 29-yard field goal wide right with 1:31 left, and the Chargers came out with an improbable victory. However, just because the Chargers are on a hot streak and were able to beat the Colts then doesn’t mean they are going to beat them the second time around. In fact, I give you 6 reasons that the Colts will win on Sunday and why the Chargers don’t stand a chance.
1. Peyton Manning won’t throw 6 interceptions
How many times is the great Peyton Manning going to throw 6 interceptions in a game? How about this: Peyton has thrown 3 interceptions in only 2 other games since the start of the 2003 season. That spans 90 games, a stretch where he has a total of 184 touchdown passes and 68 interceptions, almost a 3 to 1 ratio. And you think he is going to throw 3 or more in this game? He only does that once every 30 games, so we will have to wait until 2009 for that to happen again.
2. It’s playoff time, so Adam Vinatieri won’t miss
Again, how many times is Adam Vinatieri going to miss a 29-yard field goal? He also doesn’t miss all that often on turf, which is what the Colts play on at home in the RCA Dome. Since the start of the 2001 season, when he became famous for his clutch kicking, he is 52/56 on turf, an astonishing 93% success rate. Also forgotten is that Vinatieri missed a 42-yard field goal at the end of the first half, which, if made (which we assume he will on the turf field) also is enough to make up the deficit and give the Colts a win. If the Chargers are banking on this guy to miss another kick like the one he did in the regular season, they may as well not even bother showing up.
3. The Chargers need an offense to beat the Colts
When these two teams played in the regular season, San Diego had only 177 yards of total offense, relying on two Darren Sproles return touchdowns to score (one on a kickoff, another on a punt, and both in the first quarter). Outside of those two returns, they used two of Manning’s interceptions (which he threw 4 of on their first 4 drives of the game) to set up good field position and score 10 points. As we said before, Manning isn’t going to turn the ball over like he did, so they need to find a way to move the ball down the field. Tomlinson was kept relatively quiet in that game, rushing for only 76 yards on 21 carries, and Philip Rivers turned the ball over three times, something we have grown accustomed to seeing with him. The San Diego offense only collected 11 first downs the entire game, which won’t suffice the second time around. Also…
4. The Chargers may not have Antonio Gates
Whether they have Antonio Gates or not makes a huge difference in this game. Of course, they may only have an Antonio Gates at about 70% if he can play because of his ankle, which is being called a sprain by the team, but dislocated by Gates. If he can’t go, that takes away the biggest threat in the passing game for San Diego, which would make it much easier for Indianapolis to attack Philip Rivers with their speed. If he can play, you would assume it would be very difficult for him to make cuts on that ankle, which would severely diminish his effectiveness. Speaking of injuries...
5. The Colts will have their injured players ready to go.
The last time these two teams played, Indianapolis was without the following players: top WR Marvin Harrison, slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez, TE Dallas Clark, starting left tackle Tony Ugoh, linebackers Freddy Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler, and during the game lost All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney and right tackle Ryan Diem during the game. While Freeney is out for the year, all of the other players are expected to play this weekend. While all of the eyes focus on Harrison’s name, as well they should, they tend to overlook the impact that Clark and Gonzalez have on this team. Clark was the slot receiver the past two years, and is one of the more underrated tight ends in football. He is their second-leading receiver this year, and also snagged 11 touchdowns. Gonzalez is the ever-important slot receiver in this offense. If you recall, that spot was held by Brandon Stokley for years, and he was a key part of the passing attack. With Gonzalez back in there, the Colts attack becomes lethal. Also, Ugoh is a very good tackle who protects Manning’s backside, which is one of the most important yet overlooked things in football. With his backside covered, Manning’s confidence and protection increases dramatically. Oh and one more thing about the Colts offense vs. the Chargers defense…
6. The Chargers struggle against top-flight offenses
On the year as a whole, the Chargers rank 5th in the league in points against at 17.8 per game. However, they built that number by playing Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland a total of six times. Against the top-tier offenses in the NFL, they went 1-3 and gave up an average of 28.5 points per game. They give up almost 100 more yards per game against them than against the teams in their division, and they struggle to get pressure on the quarterback in those games as well. Where they average 2.6 sacks per game overall, they only get 1.5 against the best offenses, and that figures to be even lower against the Colts, who gave up 23 sacks all year. Without pressure, this team suffers, and it will be tough to come by on Sunday.
Sunday, expect the Colts defense to exploit the weaknesses in the offense of the Chargers. If Antonio Gates plays, I believe his effect on the game will be minimal because of the damage to his ankle. You should see the Colts key in on LaDanian Tomlinson to try and force Philip Rivers to beat them, which he hasn’t shown the ability to do this year, or really at any point in his career. The Colts staunch defense, which leads the NFL in points against, should be able to shut down the Chargers offense, much like Tennessee did in the Wild Card round. Also, the Colts will be at full strength, which will make a big difference on the offensive side of the ball. Joseph Addai has been a fantastic complement to the Peyton Manning, and if the Chargers play the pass too much, the Colts will be content with just handing the ball to Addai and keeping the ball in their possession. The Chargers’ struggles against the top offenses will continue, and the Colts should come out on top.
Prediction: Colts 24-14
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