NFC Championship Game Preview

Last weekend, the New York Football Giants pulled the upset in Dallas, creating one of the best story lines of the week: Eli making it further in the playoffs than his older and more talented brother, Peyton. It also gave us some of the best moments in post-game sports history as we saw Terrell Owens cry to defend his teammate, his quarterback in fact, Jerry Jones have that stunned look on his face as his $60 million investment crumbled in the fourth quarter, Wade Phillips have that dumbfounded look as he lost another playoff game, and Michael Strahan talking smack on TO and the ultra cocky Patrick Crayton. I’m pretty sure I haven’t had a more satisfying victory as a Giants fan since the NFC Championship game against the Vikings 7 years ago when they thrashed them 41-0. Unfortunately for New York, Brett Favre continued his storybook year by beating the Seahawks at Lambeau, and doing it convincingly. Now the road to the Super Bowl goes to Green Bay as the country will watch to see what improbable story continues: the Giants and their 9-1 record on the road with their oft-maligned quarterback, or the Packers and their ageless quarterback leading the young guns to Arizona.

As a die-hard Giants fan, I would obviously love for Big Blue to keep the road warrior theme going, but I believe that this weekend’s test against the Pack is their toughest of the season. I always thought the Packers were a better team than the Cowboys, and it starts with their defense. The Packers have a much better secondary than Dallas does, mostly because they actually have a safety who can cover, unlike Roy Williams, who is inexplicably a Pro Bowler this year. Atari Bigby, who I praised before the playoffs started, had a huge game against Seattle, forcing a fumble and causing the Seahawks wideouts to think twice about catching the ball. The Giants are going to have a problem on offense because those short-to-intermediate routes are going to be tough to come by as the Packers corners, Al Harris and Charles Woodson, get a good jam on receivers at the line of scrimmage, disrupting routes early. The Giants don’t have fast receivers that can take advantage of their slight lack of speed, and that is going to force Eli to try and fit the ball into tight windows. If he is a little bit off, those corners and safeties can step in and pick if off, and you have to wonder how early struggles would mess with Eli’s psyche.

I don’t fear the Green Bay front seven as much as other people do, as they failed to get any sacks in 4 of their last 5 games of the regular season. The Giants offensive line has gotten into the Packers heads a little bit with their so-called “dirty” play, which can only work in the Giants favor. Look for Eli to have solid protection, as the offensive line will most likely double Aaron Kampman and force someone else to beat them. The Giants will have to run the ball effectively in order to stay in this game early on, which means Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw must get big chunks of yards on first down to keep the Giants out of 2^nd and 3^rd and long situations to keep the defense off of Eli. I think they can do this with good effectiveness and should be able to keep the Packers defense guessing.

The Packers offense poses more problems for the Giants defense than the Cowboys offense did. They have the ability to spread the field and use more receivers to a better effect than Dallas, and their receivers get a lot of yards after the catch, which hurts the Giants because their secondary doesn’t exactly have the best tacklers in the league. Also, the Packers offensive line is incredible, allowing only 19 sacks all season. Combine that with the Packers short-pass attack and you have a recipe for disaster against the Giants. New York loves to blitz and use their front seven to get pressure on the quarterback, but if the Packers only use 3-step drops, then it is almost impossible to get there in time to sack Favre. When passing, the Pack should spread this thin secondary out with 4 and 5 wide receiver sets, forcing practice squad extraordinaire Geoffrey Pope into action more than we would like to see. Also, the Giants are vulnerable deep, as their safeties have trouble in deep coverage against speedy receivers, so when Green Bay takes shots down field, Greg Jennings should be open for Favre.

When running the ball, Green Bay has the former New York Giant Ryan Grant in the backfield. He has become one of the better young backs in the NFL, rushing for 201 yards against the Seahawks last week. The Giants will have to stop Grant if they want their pass rush to get to Favre, and it is going to be very hard to bring Grant down. He has a good burst of speed to make it to the second and third levels of a defense, then has enough power to run over linebackers and safeties. After watching Antonio Pierce get run over by Marion Barber last week, and knowing the tackling struggles of the safeties, the Giants will have a tough time if Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield can’t disrupt the play in the backfield early.

I can’t see the Giants offense being able to keep up with Green Bay’s early on. The Giants will have to lean on Eli more than they have so far this postseason, and he doesn’t perform well when asked to carry the load. I believe that they will be effective and be in the game, but it will be a far cry from last week’s. Favre should have a good game against the Giants depleted secondary and the quick throws will nullify the Giants pass rush. Ryan Grant will keep the defense honest and have a good game as well, although not the monstrous 200 yard game he had last week. By the time the 4^th quarter comes though, Grant will become a huge factor and should wear down this Giants defense. Believe me, it hurts to know the season should end this weekend, as they have a much tougher task this weekend than they did last weekend. This Packers team is peaking at the right time, and while the Giants are as well, this Packers squad is more talented and not banged up like the Giants are. The Packers should move on to Arizona and face off against Tom Brady and the undefeated Pats in one of the more entertaining Super Bowls in recent memory. And hey, I picked against the Giants (albeit slightly) last week, so maybe my incorrect pick will come true again…. maybe.

Prediction: Packers 27-17 (Again, I hope I’m wrong)

AFC Championship Game Preview

Last weekend, the Chargers pulled the stunner of the playoff year as they went to Indianapolis and took out the defending Super Bowl champions, 28-24 behind the strong contributions of backups Billy Volek and Michael Turner. Their defense grabbed three turnovers by the Colts offense, stopping them in the red zone each time. Most impressively, they were able to put up 28 points on a Colts defense that lead the league in points against this season at 16 per game, and doing it with a backup quarterback, running back, and their All-Pro tight end playing at about 50%.

However, this weekend they go up against one of the best teams in the history of the game: the vaunted, undefeated, New England Patriots. Both teams have been undefeated since week 12, and they are a combined 15-0. But one team has to lose this weekend, and it will be the team from Southern California.

Why won’t the Chargers win? Well we can start by looking at the Patriots offense going against their defense. I don’t want to hear about how good the Chargers defense is, because it isn’t as good as people say it is. The fact is they were not that good against the Colts on Sunday, and had a few fortunate bounces go their way in order to hold them off. They gave up an astonishing 446 yards of offense, and if it wasn’t for some sloppy play by the Colts, they would have been blown out. The Colts had 10 offensive possessions in the game; they scored on 4 of those possessions (24 points), had three fluke turnovers in the red zone, turned it over on downs twice and forced one punt. That equates to a 30% “stop rate” as I call it. Looking back at the Colts game, if Marvin Harrison remembered how to run with a football and Kenton Keith didn’t drop an easy screen pass for an interception, the Colts most likely add another 10-14 points to their score. That would translate to a 38 point night on the Chargers defense, which would hardly be considered a good night.

The other problem is, the Patriots won’t be careless with the football, and they won’t be stopped inside the 10 for zero points. They only turned the ball over 15 times during the year, so to expect any more than one is a little much. However, the Chargers have a better pass rush than the Jaguars do, so they should be able to create more pressure on Tom Brady. Of course, that just means the Patriots receivers will have less defenders covering them and it opens up the defensive backfield that much more. The Chargers may have good individuals on their defense, but schematically they have a lot of issues this weekend against the Pats.

On the offensive side of the ball, it was recently reported that Philip Rivers has a partial tear of his ACL in his left knee and is worse off than what the Chargers are saying. That poses more problems than one would think. Billy Volek may have lead his team down the field last week for one score, but it becomes totally different when you have to do it over an entire game. He is only 3-7 as a starting quarterback in the NFL, and in a one-game season, I would doubt that Chargers fans really feel that comfortable with him back there. He will be looked at to manage the game and not make mistakes, which is dangerous against the Patriots.

The good news for San Diego is that LaDanian Tomlinson should be ready to go. He practiced a few times this week and expects to play. The bad news for Tomlinson is that if Volek plays, and maybe even if he doesn’t, the Pats should stuff 7 or 8 in the box to stop the run and force the Chargers to pass into the 20+ MPH winds that there will be on Sunday. That will cause lots of problems to this Chargers team who will have a severely weakened Antonio Gates hobbling around once again. He was only truly effective in the first and third quarters last week, and they will need a full game from him in order to have an effective passing game. I doubt it will be able to happen, and the Chargers should have a tough time keeping up with New England.

I believe the Patriots will dominate this football game from start to finish. I don’t believe in the Chargers defense as much as everyone else seems to, and I think that the Patriots offense will score a lot of points against them early and often. Tom Brady will pick apart the Chargers secondary when he has time to throw, and when he doesn’t he will throw his check downs and screen passes and allow his playmakers to pick up yards after the catch. The Chargers will have trouble establishing the run early on because the Pats will stuff the box. After New England builds an early lead, San Diego will be forced to throw in order to stay in the game, and I don’t think Billy Volek, or a hampered Philip Rivers, will be able to throw consistently in the high winds. The Chargers are in for a long day in Foxborough and it will show on the scoreboard. You can punch the Patriots ticket to the Super Bowl now, because this one isn’t going to be close.

Prediction: Patriots 42-17.

NFC Divisional Round Preview: Cowboys-Giants

All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. We finish up today, as we look at the Giants-Cowboys game, being played Sunday afternoon at 4:30 on FOX.

This is arguably the most talked about game of the weekend, as this is the third time these two teams meet this season. In the first game of the year, Dallas won an up-and-down shootout with the Giants in the stadium with the hole in the roof 45-35. In the rematch 9 weeks later at the Meadowlands, Dallas once again won a close game 31-21. However, there isn’t as much talk this week about those games as there is talk about the recent Dallas struggles, Terrell Owens’ ankle, and Tony Romo’s love interest, Jessica Simpson. With a hot quarterback in Eli Manning and a defense that has been dominant since Week 3 of the season, the Giants have become a trendy pick this week. But, before we simply pick based on trends, let’s take a look at this game and come to a real conclusion.

We may as well start with the melodrama that is the Dallas Cowboys, who have had all of the media focus this week. Dallas had an explosive offense this year, ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in yards, passing yards, and points. That was consistent with their performances against the Giants, although the second time around, the Giants defense performed much better than the first. However, Dallas was able to nullify the Giants pass rush and exploit the Giants weak secondary. Of the Giants 53 sacks this year, only 2 came against the Cowboys, who have a very good offensive line. The lack of pressure, or should I say, effective pressure, allowed Romo to find open receivers, especially ones named Terrell Owens.

There have been questions about TO’s status for the game on Sunday, but let’s get this straight: Owens is playing, regardless of how well he feels. There are two reasons for this: 1) Owens is a “gamer” and wouldn’t miss this one, or any playoff game, for the world, and 2) Cowboys owner Jerry Jones just might kill Wade Phillips in his sleep if TO doesn’t play.

Owens has been an absolute torture for many teams around the league, but especially the Giants. This year, Owens had 212 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, and it shows no sign of stopping if he plays this weekend. Sam Madison, regarded as the Giants best cornerback for who knows what reason, would most likely be assigned to Owens, and he simply does not have the speed to keep up with him. Combined with the poor coverage abilities of the Giants safeties, Owens should have another good day against Big Blue just by stepping on to the field. His presence opens up the possibilities for tight end Jason Witten and wide receiver Patrick Crayton. Also, Terry Glen may play this weekend, and he has been one of the more underrated receivers in the league.

However, the success of the passing game and the Cowboys as a whole depends on the legs of running back Marion Barber (oh heck, it also has to do with TO, but back to him in a second). In the 7 games in which the Cowboys as a team did not rush for 100 yards, they went 4-3 and threw for 300+ yards only once. You can argue they should have only been 2-5 in those games, as Buffalo and Detroit choked away victories in the last minutes with their shoddy play. Barber, the lead back for Dallas, must be fed the ball at least 20 times in this game to keep the threat of the run there for the Giants. If the neglect to use the running game, the Giants will be able to open up their wide array of blitzes to confuse Romo and force him to make mistakes, which he is prone to do, as evidenced by his 19 interceptions on the year. Going back to TO for a quick second, if you look at my NFC playoff preview, you can see the effectiveness the Cowboys offense lacks when Owens isn’t being fed the ball. It becomes a real problem for them when Owens and Barber aren’t feature players in this offense, and it will be the job of the Giants defense to stop them.

On offense, the Giants have been pretty average all season long, playing to the level of their competition. There are no huge disparities in their point totals whether they play a top 10 or bottom 10 defense, but recently the offense has been playing much better. Since the Redskins debacle, the Giants have averaged 32 points per game. They have gone back to Giants football, pounding the defense with Brandon Jacobs and then using play action and smart passes from Eli Manning to get down the field and score points. In their second game against the Cowboys this year, the Giants were able to dominate time of possession overall, having the ball for almost 10 more minutes than Dallas. However, it was in the second half when the Giants got away from their running game, and outside of one 9 minute drive, the Giants had the ball for a total of 7 minutes on 4 drives. Not surprisingly, Dallas took advantage of more time with the ball to score two critical touchdowns, which proved to be the difference in the game. If the Giants stay true to recent form by running the football around 30 times on Sunday, then use Manning to attack Dallas’ mediocre secondary, they will be able to have success.

In the passing game, Plaxico Burress has been injured all year long, much worse than TO is this week, and he has had an unbelievable year, catching 70 balls for 12 touchdowns. He is the big play threat for New York, and one of Eli’s favorite targets. However, it is Amani Toomer who is critical to the success of the Giants passing game. Toomer is Eli’s security blanket, and he is looked to for big third down completions. On the 9 minute drive last week against Tampa Bay, it was Toomer who, time after time, came up with the big catch to keep the drive going, and eventually, it was Toomer who caught the touchdown pass. Assuming the Cowboys try to keep Burress out of the game, it will be Toomer, fellow wide out Steve Smith, and tight end Kevin Boss who will be responsible for the big chunk of the passing game. Speaking of Boss, he has earned himself a cult following in New York, sparking cheers of “Who’s the Boss?!” amongst Giants fans. If the three of them are able to catch short-to-medium passes and turn them into first downs, that will open up the deep ball to Burress.

Ok, it’s time to wrap it all up and conclude who exactly will win the big game down in Dallas. I believe Dallas will come to their senses and go back to the running game they have lacked since their big win against Green Bay (averaging 72 yards per game). Even if Marion Barber doesn’t have a huge game, the number of carries will be what’s important to keep the Giants defense honest. Because of the threat of the run, Dallas will be able to use play action to open up the Giants secondary. They will find TO, but it will be up to the Giants corners and safeties to tackle him quickly and avoid giving up the big play. I think Terry Glen will be limited in his effectiveness, but Jason Witten should have a big game going against the Giants backup linebackers. I know the Giants defense is playing well, but we saw how troublesome a good set of wide receivers can be for this secondary in the Patriots game.

I think the Giants will run the ball on offense and will be able to keep Dallas off the field for the most part. They will turn and hand the ball of to Brandon Jacobs, who was 3^rd in the league in yards per game and also 3^rd amongst 1000+ yard rushers in yards per carry, along with Ahmad Bradshaw as a change-of-pace back. Dallas’ defense has struggled against the run lately, and that will continue in this game against Big Blue. Eli will have a fairly effective game, as he always does against this defense, but you can count on one interception. This time, I think we will see the Giants stick to the game plan in the second half of the game, not getting away from the run in order to “keep up” with Dallas. By running the ball, they will keep the Cowboys offense off the field and will use it to get down field.

I have been going back and forth on this pick all week. There are lots of reasons to pick both teams, as the Giants are hot and the Cowboys aren’t, but the Cowboys are going for the season sweep, which they have never completed. However, in typical Giants fashion, I believe they will resort to field goals in the red zone too often, whereas Dallas will score touchdowns. This is going to be a fierce, hard-hitting, close game, just like many of these games are. But in the end, it will be Terrell Owens who has a big game, and a big catch by Jason Witten will set up the winning field goal. And because Romo doesn’t hold for field goals anymore, they won’t screw it up. This game will be close all game, and it will come down to the final minutes, and it will be the best game of the weekend, but in the end, Dallas will prevail.

Prediction: Dallas 31-30 (Although I hope I’m wrong)

AFC Divisional Round Preview: Colts-Chargers

All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. Today, we look at the Chargers-Colts game, being played Sunday afternoon at 1:00 on CBS.

This game is a rematch of a Week 10 game played in San Diego where the Chargers took advantage of 6 Peyton Manning interceptions to squeak out a 23-21 victory. Adam Vinatieri shockingly pushed a 29-yard field goal wide right with 1:31 left, and the Chargers came out with an improbable victory. However, just because the Chargers are on a hot streak and were able to beat the Colts then doesn’t mean they are going to beat them the second time around. In fact, I give you 6 reasons that the Colts will win on Sunday and why the Chargers don’t stand a chance.

1. Peyton Manning won’t throw 6 interceptions

How many times is the great Peyton Manning going to throw 6 interceptions in a game? How about this: Peyton has thrown 3 interceptions in only 2 other games since the start of the 2003 season. That spans 90 games, a stretch where he has a total of 184 touchdown passes and 68 interceptions, almost a 3 to 1 ratio. And you think he is going to throw 3 or more in this game? He only does that once every 30 games, so we will have to wait until 2009 for that to happen again.

2. It’s playoff time, so Adam Vinatieri won’t miss

Again, how many times is Adam Vinatieri going to miss a 29-yard field goal? He also doesn’t miss all that often on turf, which is what the Colts play on at home in the RCA Dome. Since the start of the 2001 season, when he became famous for his clutch kicking, he is 52/56 on turf, an astonishing 93% success rate. Also forgotten is that Vinatieri missed a 42-yard field goal at the end of the first half, which, if made (which we assume he will on the turf field) also is enough to make up the deficit and give the Colts a win. If the Chargers are banking on this guy to miss another kick like the one he did in the regular season, they may as well not even bother showing up.

3. The Chargers need an offense to beat the Colts

When these two teams played in the regular season, San Diego had only 177 yards of total offense, relying on two Darren Sproles return touchdowns to score (one on a kickoff, another on a punt, and both in the first quarter). Outside of those two returns, they used two of Manning’s interceptions (which he threw 4 of on their first 4 drives of the game) to set up good field position and score 10 points. As we said before, Manning isn’t going to turn the ball over like he did, so they need to find a way to move the ball down the field. Tomlinson was kept relatively quiet in that game, rushing for only 76 yards on 21 carries, and Philip Rivers turned the ball over three times, something we have grown accustomed to seeing with him. The San Diego offense only collected 11 first downs the entire game, which won’t suffice the second time around. Also…

4. The Chargers may not have Antonio Gates

Whether they have Antonio Gates or not makes a huge difference in this game. Of course, they may only have an Antonio Gates at about 70% if he can play because of his ankle, which is being called a sprain by the team, but dislocated by Gates. If he can’t go, that takes away the biggest threat in the passing game for San Diego, which would make it much easier for Indianapolis to attack Philip Rivers with their speed. If he can play, you would assume it would be very difficult for him to make cuts on that ankle, which would severely diminish his effectiveness. Speaking of injuries...

5. The Colts will have their injured players ready to go.

The last time these two teams played, Indianapolis was without the following players: top WR Marvin Harrison, slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez, TE Dallas Clark, starting left tackle Tony Ugoh, linebackers Freddy Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler, and during the game lost All-Pro defensive end Dwight Freeney and right tackle Ryan Diem during the game. While Freeney is out for the year, all of the other players are expected to play this weekend. While all of the eyes focus on Harrison’s name, as well they should, they tend to overlook the impact that Clark and Gonzalez have on this team. Clark was the slot receiver the past two years, and is one of the more underrated tight ends in football. He is their second-leading receiver this year, and also snagged 11 touchdowns. Gonzalez is the ever-important slot receiver in this offense. If you recall, that spot was held by Brandon Stokley for years, and he was a key part of the passing attack. With Gonzalez back in there, the Colts attack becomes lethal. Also, Ugoh is a very good tackle who protects Manning’s backside, which is one of the most important yet overlooked things in football. With his backside covered, Manning’s confidence and protection increases dramatically. Oh and one more thing about the Colts offense vs. the Chargers defense…

6. The Chargers struggle against top-flight offenses

On the year as a whole, the Chargers rank 5^th in the league in points against at 17.8 per game. However, they built that number by playing Denver, Kansas City, and Oakland a total of six times. Against the top-tier offenses in the NFL, they went 1-3 and gave up an average of 28.5 points per game. They give up almost 100 more yards per game against them than against the teams in their division, and they struggle to get pressure on the quarterback in those games as well. Where they average 2.6 sacks per game overall, they only get 1.5 against the best offenses, and that figures to be even lower against the Colts, who gave up 23 sacks all year. Without pressure, this team suffers, and it will be tough to come by on Sunday.

Sunday, expect the Colts defense to exploit the weaknesses in the offense of the Chargers. If Antonio Gates plays, I believe his effect on the game will be minimal because of the damage to his ankle. You should see the Colts key in on LaDanian Tomlinson to try and force Philip Rivers to beat them, which he hasn’t shown the ability to do this year, or really at any point in his career. The Colts staunch defense, which leads the NFL in points against, should be able to shut down the Chargers offense, much like Tennessee did in the Wild Card round. Also, the Colts will be at full strength, which will make a big difference on the offensive side of the ball. Joseph Addai has been a fantastic complement to the Peyton Manning, and if the Chargers play the pass too much, the Colts will be content with just handing the ball to Addai and keeping the ball in their possession. The Chargers’ struggles against the top offenses will continue, and the Colts should come out on top.

Prediction: Colts 24-14

NFC Divisional Round Preview: Packers-Seahawks

All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. Today, we look at the Packers-Seahawks game, being played Saturday afternoon at 4:30 on FOX.

The biggest intrigue in this game is the rematch of Brett Favre and Mike Holmgren, who were together in Green Bay during the Super Bowl years. Homgren is still revered in Green Bay, as Holmgren Way is right outside of Lambeau Field. However, his Seattle Seahawks are currently 8 point road underdogs to the Packers, who are the #2 seed in the NFC. Many people, including myself, were impressed with how much Seattle dominated the Redskins, as they outplayed Washington for 55 of the 60 minutes in the game. More than anything else, I was surprised at how easily the defense was able to stop the Redskins’ offense. They held Washington to 4-18 on 3^rd down, and were continuously pressuring Todd Collins into incompletions, sacks, and interceptions.

However, Green Bay’s quarterback is just a bit better than Todd Collins. He is the record-setting gunslinger. The league’s only three time MVP. The Super Bowl champion and incomparable (although some people try to do so with Tony Romo, which simply blows my mind) Brett Favre. Favre and the Packers have used a short-pass attack to gain lots of yards and score the 4^th most points in the NFL at 27.2 per game.

Seattle’s defense is going to have a tough time having success against Green Bay’s stellar offense. They were only 19^th in the league against the pass, and most of their success on defense is due to their pass rush. In their regular-season victories, they registered 40 of their 45 sacks, an average of 2.8 per game. However, when they go against a top 10 offense, like the Packers’ offense is, they only average .75 per game. This reflects in how successful their overall defense is. Overall, they give up just over 18 points per game. However, they give up 26.5 against top 10 offenses, and an astonishing 392 yards on average in those games.

Most importantly, the Packers have allowed only 19 sacks all season. The tackles have gotten a little bit slower and have allowed some more pressure, but you can expect the Packers to counter any problems off the edge by keeping in a tight end to help block the Seahawks edge rushers.

When Seattle has the ball, they have become so one-dimensional that their recent game against the Redskins was viewed as a success on the ground, even though they only picked up 77 yards. They rely heavily on the arm of Matt Hasselbeck to generate offense, which in turn makes them vulnerable to sacks. They gave up 36 sacks this season, and you can expect the Packers excellent pass rush to disrupt the passing game of Seattle. Aaron Kampman is dangerous off the edge, but Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila has been slowed by injuries this year after a fast start. He has not registered a sack since Week 12 against Detroit, and that has shown in the Packers overall pass rush. They haven’t had a sack in 4 of their past 5 games, and if they can’t do that against the Seahawks, they might be in trouble.

The Green Bay secondary is one that has done a lot better this year than it did in previous years. Charles Woodson and Al Harris have had rejuvenated seasons, but you cannot overlook the play of Atari Bigby at the safety position. He has five interceptions on the season, and the second year player out of Central Florida will look to snag one against Hasselbeck. The return of Deion Branch should be a boost to this offense, and you can expect a lot of three wide receiver sets to try and neutralize the blitzing linebackers of Green Bay. If they can do that and keep the ball away from Green Bay’s offense, they have a very real chance at winning.

However, I see the Packers offense being explosive and keeping the ball for the majority of the game against Seattle. I believe they will use short passes early to neutralize Seattle’s pass rush, and once Marcus Trufant looks to jump a short route on Brett Favre, they will be able to go over the top for the big play to Greg Jennings. Also, Ryan Grant should play a pivotal role in the offense, continuing his solid season by becoming a change of pace against the Seattle defense. On the defensive side of the ball, I believe the Packers home field advantage will force the Seahawks into some mistakes and the Packers defense will do enough to keep them out of the end zone. Look for the Packers to win this game and go on to the NFC Championship game.

Prediction: Packers 27-17

AFC Divisional Round Preview: Patriots-Jaguars

All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. Today, we look at the Patriots-Jaguars game, being played Saturday night at 8:30 on CBS.

This game has been called the most intriguing game by a number of analysts on television. I am excited to see what happens in this game, whether the Jaguars can use their powerful running game to keep the Patriots offense, lead by league MVP Tom Brady, on the sideline.

How effective will the Jaguars be? Let’s take a look, as it’s time to play myth buster here on The Sports Argument.

MYTH: The Patriots can’t run the ball and control the clock.

The Patriots actually ranked 13^th in the NFL in rushing yards, which is very good considering their lethal passing attack. In eight of their games this season, they rushed for 130+ yards. Laurence Maroney started finding his groove at the end of the year, running for 100+ yards twice in the last three games. The Patriots have also controlled the ball for 34 minutes or more in seven games this season, and held it for more than 30 minutes eleven times. They may not always use the running game by turning around and handing it to Maroney, but they use short passes to Wes Welker as a substitute to the running game, allowing him to run after the catch, which he is so good at doing.

FACT: The Jaguars will be able to run on the Patriots defense.

When you look at the broad stat sheet, you will see that the Patriots have a top 10 rush defense in the NFL. What gets overlooked, however, is that most teams have to abandon the run early in order to make up deficits that the Patriots create. The Patriots faced the least amount of rushing attempts, but they gave up an average of 4.4 yards per carry, 26^th in the NFL. They key is not just being able to rush the ball, but being able to score on most possessions as well, in order to allow yourself to stay in the game.

MYTH: The Jaguars can keep up with the Patriots high-powered offense.

Yes, the Jags were 6^th in the NFL with 25.7 points per game this season. However, in games where they went against top 10 offenses where they were asked to keep up with a team of this magnitude, they averaged under 19 per game, and gave up almost 33 per game. They were 0-3 in those games. Yes, their running game will be successful, but if they get down early, they don’t have the kind of offense that is capable of keeping up with New England.

MYTH: The Jaguars can stop the Patriots offense with their defense.

The Jaguars were 10^th in the NFL in points against, giving up just 19 points per game, but there is no way they can stop this attack. However, they are completely different against top offenses in the NFL. Against the pass-happy offenses of the Colts and Saints this year, they gave up an average of 319 passing yards and 32.7 points. Their pass rush also struggled to get there, only netting 4 sacks in those 3 games. The teams that have had the most success defensively against the Patriots have gotten pressure on Tom Brady, and this group will most likely struggle against a quality offensive line like New England’s.

The Patriots may be 16-0, but they are not a perfect team. However, this is not the week that they would be in danger of losing. They have a huge advantage when they are on offense with their passing game, and while they have struggled to establish a true running game recently (less than 100 yards in 4 of their last 6 games), they should be able to use their passing game to beat the Jags. David Garrard proved to me on Saturday night that he is not capable of carrying a team on his own, as he had a dismal 9/21 140 yard, 1 touchdown, 2 interception performance against the Steelers. For the Jags to be in contention in this game, he will have to play better and be more accurate. The Patriots will probably put 8 in the box to stop the run, which the Jaguars did with limited success against the Steelers, and force Garrard to beat them with his arm, which I don’t believe he can do. This game has potential to be close, but don’t bank on it. Look for the Patriots to make it through to the AFC Championship game next weekend.

Prediction: Patriots 34-20

NFL Playoff Preview - NFC

After 17 weeks of regular-season football, we have come to the much-anticipated 2008 NFL playoffs. The playoffs are littered with surprising stories like the Jacksonville Jaguars and their quarterback, David Garrard; the Washington Redskins honoring their slain safety Sean Taylor; and of course, the Green Bay Packers and their lovable, record-setting quarterback Brett Favre. But of course, the favorites reside in New England, where the perfect Patriots look to become the second team ever to go undefeated and win the Super Bowl.

Today, we look at the NFC playoff picture and see who will represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

NFC
The story of the year in the NFC has been Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers coming back from am 8-8 season last year in which they won their final 4 games, to go 13-3 this year and win the number 2 seed in the NFC. However, the number 1 seed went to the Dallas Cowboys, lead by a guy you might have heard of named Tony Romo. Romo brings the Cowboys in at 13-3, but they are a team that is struggling recently, going 1-2 in their last three games. There is no doubt that the offense is prolific, ranking 3^rd in the NFL in yards per game and 2^nd in points at 28.4. The passing attack has been the most lethal weapon they have with over 250 per game, and they have been able to protect Romo, allowing only 25 sacks all year. However, it is Terrell Owens who makes this offense click. In their six close games or losses this season, Owens has not played a big factor in the game. In a 25-24 victory over Buffalo, he only had 25 receiving yards; a 48-27 loss to New England resulted in only 66 receiving yards; in the comeback win over Detroit, he registered 21 receiving yards; he had only 27 yards in their loss to Philadelphia; and only 48 receiving yards before leaving with an injury in a 7 point victory over Carolina; finally, in their season-ending loss to Washington, in which he didn’t play, Tony Romo looked hesitant in the pocket and was 7/16 for 86 yards and an interception. It’s safe to say that without Owens producing at a high level, Romo and the Cowboys look lost. Romo has 19 interceptions on the year, which is only one less than Eli Manning has on the year. In his last three games, he has only one touchdown and seven interceptions, so it is safe to say they are not coming in on a high note. The word around the Cowboys is that Owens may not play in their first playoff game in two weeks, which would be demoralizing to this offense.

Their defense has impressed for most of the year, ranking 9^th in the NFL in yards against and 13^th in points against at 20.3 per game, however, in games against playoff teams, they have given up 30 points per game, which won’t cut it in the playoffs. DeMarcus Ware, who has had a stellar season under Wade Phillips with 14 sacks and 84 tackles, must step up along with the rest of that defense if they would like to advance to the Super Bowl.

There were not many people outside of Green Bay that believed this team could make it to the playoffs. You are looking at one of the few who believed. Of course, did I think they would be THIS good? Absolutely not. Brett Favre has canned the risky throws this year in favor of the shorter, high-percentage throws, and it ended up with him throwing for 4000+ yards for the 5^th time in his illustrious career. He has led the Packers offense to the 2^nd most yards per game in the NFL and the 2^nd best passing attack in the league, all while scoring the 4^th most points in the league at 27.2 points per game. However, the defense is nothing to sneeze at either as they rank 6^th in the NFL in points against at only 18.2 per game. While Favre was putting up big numbers, analysts were saying that Green Bay didn’t have a reliable running game for when the weather got nasty. However, Ryan Grant has emerged as one of the best young backs in the league. Since he became the starter, he has rushed for 927 yards in those ten games, and in the last eight, he averaged 5.5 yards per carry and had 8 touchdowns. If the Packers can get that kind of production from Grant in the playoffs, then they will have a great shot at making it to Arizona for Super Bowl XLII.

Seattle has once again successfully gone under the radar and won the NFC West for the fourth straight season. However, they have done it differently than in years past. While Shaun Alexander was the focus of the offense in previous years, he has experienced a few down years which has led to the emergence of Matt Hasselbeck as a premier passer in the NFL. He has led them to the 8^th best passing attack in the league and the 9^th best scoring offense at 24.6 points per game. However, they say defense wins championships, and Seattle has one of the better ones in the league. While they rank 15^th in yards against, they stiffen up with their backs against the wall, ranking 6^th at 18.2 points against, tied with Green Bay. It is their pass defense which is most impressive, as they have allowed the fewest passing touchdowns in the league, are fourth in interceptions, and have the second best defensive quarterback efficiency, as passers only have a 73.0 QB rating against them. Patrick Kerney left Atlanta at the right time, and has taken his game to another level this year, registering 14.5 sacks coming off the edge. Lofa Tatupu and Julian Peterson have gotten even better this year and anchor a linebacker core that is one of the best in the league. However, it is the emergence of Marcus Trufant which has brought this defense to another level. Trufant set a career high this year with 7 interceptions, earning his first Pro Bowl selection. If Seatte is to go far, they will look to the defense to shut down the high-powered passing attacks in the NFC and rely on their own to score points and allow them to move on.

Tampa Bay took advantage of Philadelphia’s mistake in letting Jeff Garcia go by turning him into their solid, if unspectacular, quarterback. Garcia was consistent all season long, throwing only 4 interceptions all year, and 3 of those were in a loss to Jacksonville. By not turning the ball over, he gives his offense a chance to move down the field and put points on the board. He also gives the defense a chance to show why they are once again one of the top units in the NFL. Like the Tampa defenses of old, they ranked 2^nd in the NFL in yards against this year, and 3^rd in points against at 16.9 per game. They give up the fewest passing yards per game at just over 170, which bodes well for success in the NFC. However, their offense must be able to score points, and they haven’t done that enough this year. They only average 20.9 points per game, and their three 30+ point games came against two of the worst defenses in football in Atlanta and New Orleans. Joey Galloway continues to defy age with another solid season at wideout. The defense has been stout again, led by Derrick Brooks and newcomer Barrett Ruud. Ruud started the year with 78 tackles in the first 8 games, but his production slipped in the second half as he only registered 36 tackles in the team’s final eight games. They also don’t register much pressure on offense, which could turn out to be a problem. They come in losing 3 of their last 4, with their only victory coming against Atlanta in week 15. They must turn around their play and do it quickly if they are going to move on, as they have a tough first round draw in the New York Giants.

The New York Giants were another welcome surprise this season, finishing 10-6 in the always tough NFC East. When Tiki Barber left the Giants after the 2006 season, most believed the Giants would fade out of the playoff picture and Tom Coughlin would not be able to bring this team back to the playoffs, losing his job in the process. However, Coughlin has brought this team back to the playoffs for a third consecutive year, something only the Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks can say they have done as well. The Giants have gone back to their old-school offensive ways, using the run to anchor their offense. They ranked 4^th in the NFL this year by rushing for 134 yards per game using a plethora of backs, including Brandon Jacobs, Reuben Droughns, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward. Jacobs, injured throughout parts of the season, ended up with over 1000 yards rushing and a 5 yard per carry average. Droughns has become the short yardage back, rushing for only 275 yards this year but 6 touchdowns. Yet, no matter what the running game does, the spotlight is focused squarely on Eli Manning, who, in his fourth year in the NFL, has yet to lead the Giants to a playoff victory. This year we saw his completion percentage drop, his touchdowns drop (albeit, just one), and his interceptions rise, an ugly threesome. However, we saw something out of Eli in the team’s last regular season game against New England that we haven’t seen a lot of in his four years in New York: poise. He finished with 251 yards and 4 touchdowns, often leading the Giants on important scoring drives to keep them in the game. The good news for the Giants is that they are out of Giants Stadium, where they were only 3-5 this season, and get to go on the road, where they went 7-1, their only loss coming in the season opener at Dallas in a close game. The other good news for the Giants is that their defense is playing extremely well, ranking 7^th in total defense, 8^th against the rush, and 1^st in sacks. However, they are weak in the secondary, as Sam Madison is just too old to be relied upon if he cannot jam receivers at the line of scrimmage. They are arguably the worst secondary of all twelve playoff teams, but their pass rush allows them to mask that problem. Osi Umenyiora is headed back to the Pro Bowl with 13 sacks on the year, and his fellow defensive end Michael Strahan registered 9. However, surprising Justin Tuck made huge contributions from the defensive tackle position, notching 10 sacks. Fred Robbins is a stud in the middle as well, stuffing the run and coming up with 5.5 sacks himself. If the Giants can take advantage of Tampa Bay’s mediocre offensive line and pressure Jeff Garcia, they can give their offense good field position to start their drives. Expect the Giants to use the run to set up the pass throughout the playoffs, taking pressure off of Manning to do too much. The defense should be able to shut a team like Tampa Bay down, but we’ll see what they can do against better competition, such as the Cowboys and Packers.

The Washington Redskins are the feel good story of the year in the NFL, as they have come back from the tragic shooting of teammate Sean Taylor to improbably make the playoffs. Besides Taylor, the center of it all has been backup quarterback Todd Collins, who hadn’t started a game since 1997, yet has led the Redskins to three consecutive victories and into the playoffs. When starter Jason Campbell went down with a leg injury against the Bears, it seemed that all hope had been lost for a playoff spot, yet Collins has brought higher production out of Washington’s offense since stepping in, as the offense has averaged 26.25 points when he is playing, whereas they averaged only 19 points with Campbell in. Their defense has been dominant against the run all season long, ranking 4^th in the NFL giving up only 91 rushing yards per game. However, they have been somewhat susceptible to the pass, allowing an average of 214 yards per game, which is middle of the pack in the NFL. This could be attributed to an average pass rush, which is lead by Andre Carter’s 10.5 sacks this season. However, the rest of the Redskins starters on the defensive line only have 5.5 sacks between them, which would allow teams to focus on Carter and nullify his production. London Fletcher has continued to produce at middle linebacker, conjuring up images of his younger days with 129 tackles this year. The secondary is a weakness for the Redskins, obviously with the loss of Taylor but also with cornerback Carlos Rogers being put on injured reserve earlier in the year with a knee injury. That has forced Fred Smoot into action and he has not performed consistently, opening up one side of the field to the pass. If they are to advance, they will need their pass rush to step it up to take pressure off the depleted secondary. If they cannot overcome this, then teams will be able to move the ball downfield and score too many points for this Washington offense to overcome.

So what will happen in the NFC? Wild Card weekend will showcase Seattle’s deafening 12^th man, which will be one of many reasons the Redskins will have trouble with the Seahawks. Hasselbeck should have no trouble picking apart the Washington secondary and racking up points on their defense. That will put a lot of pressure on Collins to make big plays, which I don’t believe this offense is capable of doing. You can bank on the Seahawks moving on to Lambeau Field next week. The Giants should be able to get pressure on Bucs QB Jeff Garcia, which will force him to use his legs. He has been banged up all year, and you know the Giants pass rushers are looking to pound him. Eli won’t be looked at to throw much against the stifling Bucs secondary, so the Bucs can expect a heavy dose of Brandon Jacobs. I think the Giants beat the Bucs and move on to face Dallas. The result of the Dallas-New York game will hinge on the health of TO. If Owens isn’t healthy, Romo will have a lot of trouble finding receivers. Owens was huge in both games against the G-Men this year, racking up 212 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, the Giants have been able to do a lot of damage to Dallas’ defense each time they met. They can throw the deep ball over the Cowboys weak safeties, and have a punishing running game to keep them honest. If TO doesn’t play, I think the Giants have what it takes to win. However, I can’t imagine Owens doesn’t play, so I’m going with the Cowboys. Seattle and Green Bay played at Lambeau Field a few years ago, when Matt Hasselbeck made his ill-fated guarantee over the referee’s microphone at the start of overtime, saying “We want the ball and we’re going to score.” Well a few minutes later, Al Harris was running an interception thrown by Hasselbeck into the end zone for the game-winning touchdown. There will be none of that the second time around, as Green Bay should handle this Seattle team. Seattle is only 3-5 on the road, and Lambeau Field is one of the biggest home field advantages in all of sports. Favre will use the short passing game and the running of Ryan Grant to get back to Dallas (if TO plays against the Giants, otherwise they’ll be back at Lambeau to play Big Blue) and seek revenge for their loss earlier this season.

Assuming Dallas-Green Bay is our NFC Championship game, we will have another over-hyped media festival of Tony Romo vs. Brett Favre. You’ll hear a lot of the term “gunslinger” used in the build up for that game, even though neither man uses a gun at work. And yet, this game will simply be played to see who will get slammed in the Super Bowl by the AFC. But hey, the game has to be played, so we might as well see who is going to win. With the game being in Dallas, the Cowboys get to avoid dreaded Lambeau Field, which is much more important than you may think. While Brett Favre may be 0-9 in Dallas in his career, he doesn’t fear the dome with the hole in the roof. The Packers and Favre got away from their game plan last time in Dallas as Favre took too many downfield risks instead of staying with the year-long plan of short passes. I would bet Favre still takes those downfield shots, but at a far less rate, allowing them to pick up yards underneath while still picking on Roy Williams at safety. They will have more of the success they had the first time around, but this time with Favre instead of Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The Dallas passing game should still thrive as Al Harris simply can’t matchup against TO. Harris is too slow to keep up with Owens, who will use his size at the line to get off the jams Harris uses at the line of scrimmage and find himself open. If they double cover him, that allows Jason Witten to be used underneath against the linebackers, which can be lethal. Marion Barber should also be able to power into the Green Bay defense for sizeable gains, and the Dallas offense will be able to outscore Green Bay. That would send Romo and the Cowboys to Arizona for Super Bowl XLII.

NFL Playoff Preview - AFC

After 17 weeks of regular-season football, we have come to the much-anticipated 2008 NFL playoffs. The playoffs are littered with surprising stories like the Jacksonville Jaguars and their quarterback, David Garrard; the Washington Redskins honoring their slain safety Sean Taylor; and of course, the Green Bay Packers and their lovable, record-setting quarterback Brett Favre. But of course, the favorites reside in New England, where the perfect Patriots look to become the second team ever to go undefeated and win the Super Bowl.

Today, we look at the AFC playoff picture and see who will represent the conference in the Super Bowl.

AFC

Obviously, we have to start the playoff preview by talking about the undefeated Patriots. They have a lethal passing attack led by Tom Brady and Randy Moss. Brady set an NFL record with 50 touchdown passes this year, and also threw for an NFL-leading 4,806 yards. He has won 3 Super Bowls, and yet this is his best season to date. Moss had an NFL record 23 touchdown receptions while hauling in 1,493 receiving yards on the year. Wes Welker is another outstanding wideout who was tied for the league lead with 112 catches on the year. However, their defense is also statistically stout, ranking 4^th in the NFL in both yards and points against. They have proven that they can win close games, something that you need to be able to do in the playoffs.

However, this team is far from perfect, contrary to what their record shows. A key to beating this team is being able to score early to keep the pressure on them and their defense, and it allows teams to run on a defense that is suspect against the run. While they were 10^th against the rush this year, that stat is misleading because most teams had to abandon the run in order to try and keep up with them. The Patriots rank 26^th in yards per rush defensively, as teams average 4.4 yards per carry against them. That bodes well for teams such as the Colts, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, and Jaguars, who can all run the ball effectively.

They say that you can’t count out the champs until you beat them, and that certainly applies to the Indianapolis Colts. They are arguably better this year than they were last year, with Joseph Addai coming into his own in his second season. He has given Peyton Manning a reliable run game to fall back on, which has been key as Marvin Harrison was lost most of the year with a leg injury. However, Harrison should be healthy when the playoffs start, which makes the Colts that much more dangerous on offense. However, it is the Colts defense that has made them better than last year’s version. Quietly, they have lead the league in points against at 16.4 per game, which is the opposite of what we have gotten used to with the Colts. They never gave up more than 25 points in a game, which is less than the 28 points per game they average on offense. In fact, they gave up more than 20 points only 4 times all year, although 3 of those were against playoff teams in the Patriots, Jaguars, and Chargers. You can expect that defense to continue in the playoffs, and remember that defense wins championships.

The third seed in the AFC is the San Diego Chargers who have gone on a tear since a 1-3 start, going 10-2 in their last 12 games, losing only at Minnesota and at Jacksonville. They have gone back to their bread and butter, which is turning around and handing the ball to LaDainian Tomlinson. He has run for 100 yards in 4 of his last 5 games, with the only game he didn’t do it in was the season finale against the Chargers, when he wasn’t needed anyway. He has averaged over 6 yards per carry in that stretch, which helped him win the rushing title once again while scoring a total of 18 touchdowns. However, it is also important to note than in the last six games of the year, Philip Rivers had a quarterback rating of over 100 in four of them, including the last three. If Rivers can continue to be efficient and Tomlinson can be the back he is capable of being, the Chargers can make a serious run at the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh is a team who started off hot and was viewed as a team that could legitimately contend with the Patriots in the AFC. However, after a 7-2 start, they stumbled to the finish line with a 3-4 record and backed in to a division title. Willie Parker was leading the league in rushing before he broke his leg, and he was a huge part of the Steelers offense. However, more glaring is the play of Ben Roethlisberger, who started the year as one of the best in the NFL. After starting the year with seven 200 yard passing games in their first nine, he has only accomplished that feat once in the past seven, although he didn’t play the season finale against Baltimore. Also, with the exception of one game against the lowly Rams, he has not had a QB rating of 100 since a week 9 victory against Baltimore. Without Parker, Big Ben will have to pick up the slack, as well as the normally stifling Steel Curtain defense, which has given up at least 24 points in four straight games.

Jacksonville is the last team anybody wants to face in the playoffs, and the struggling Steelers have that unlucky task. Since starting 5-3, they have gone 6-2 since, although one of those losses was the last game against Houston and the other was a three point loss at Indianapolis. Fred Taylor has been rejuvenated this year, rushing for 598 yards and 4 touchdowns in the last 5 games he played in, as he sat out the finale like all of the Jaguars players. He has averaged 7.6 yards per carry over that time, and with Pittsburgh’s line problems, you can expect that he will rip off some big runs. One of the most underappreciated players in all of football this year, other than Taylor, has been Jags QB David Garrard. He finished 3^rd in the league with a 102.1 QB rating and threw only 3 interceptions all year. With their run-first offense and a quarterback who is efficient and doesn’t turn the ball over, you have to like what the Jaguars bring to the table.

Finally, Tennessee is a team that brings a lot of question marks to the table. First, and most importantly, is the status of Vince Young. He got hurt in the last game against the Colts, and they will need him to play well if they are to beat a hot Chargers team. However, LenDale White quietly had a 1000-yard season in his second year in the league. Like the Chargers, they have a strong running game, but their passing game is not at the same level as San Diego’s. Their defense, however, has been a phenomenal turn around. While they were 27^th last year in yards given up, they rose all the way to 5^th this year. Their wild card game matches strength against strength, as the Chargers rush offense will match up against the Tennessee rush defense. However, if Tennessee can’t garner anything on offense, it likely won’t matter how good their defense appears to be. Expect a short playoff stay for the Titans, but that is what you expect out of the 6 seed anyway.

What can we expect out of the AFC? I believe we will see the Chargers handle the Titans in San Diego and Jacksonville will use that punishing running game and efficient quarterback play to beat the Steelers, who are banged up and have been playing poorly as of late. That would set up divisional round matchups of Patriots-Jaguars and Colts-Chargers. The Patriots-Jaguars game is extremely intriguing, as the Jags have a running game that would be able to chew up clock and keep the vaunted Patriots offense off the field. I’m not saying that they will beat the Patriots, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they did. The Colts-Chargers matchup would underline the importance of quarterback play in the NFL. Philip Rivers has had a roller coaster year, and his inconsistency will cost the Chargers dearly in this one. Peyton Manning and the offense will be able to score and that stout defense will keep the Chargers at bay.

That brings us to the AFC championship game, which should be a rematch of last year’s AFC title game between the Colts and the Patriots. However, this game could not be much more different than last year’s game. This time around, it’s the Patriots who have the high-powered offense and the Colts who have the standout defense. This game will be played in Foxborough where the elements always come in to play. The Patriots have not fared well in poor weather games, often finding their passing attack being adversely affected by wind and poor conditions. If that is the case, which you would expect to be true, the Patriots would have to establish a running game against one of the league’s best defenses. With Bob Sanders healthy, that Colts rush defense takes it to another level, and with the emergence of Ed Johnson on the interior, they have the ability to make you one dimensional. If they can do that, you will be forced to throw against the 2^nd best pass defense in the league, as the Colts only give up 173 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, on offense the Colts should be able to run the ball effectively early on against the Patriots defense and open up the passing game with Manning, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, and Anthony Gonzalez. They weren’t all healthy for the regular season matchup against the Patriots, and they still came close to beating them. I believe that the Colts, who are well rested and finally becoming healthy, will be able to turn it on and beat the Patriots in Foxborough to advance to their second consecutive Super Bowl.