Tuesday, December 9, 2008

Mets sign Rodriguez

It's official.

The signing everyone expected to happen since the season ended has been completed, as ESPN reports that the Mets and closer Francisco Rodriguez have agreed to a 3-year deal worth approximately $37 million. The deal includes incentives which are undisclosed at the time, which would increase the value of the contract.

Foxsports.com's Ken Rosenthal also reports that the deal is completed, and that there is a vesting option for a fourth year, estimated to be worth $14 million, raising the value of the contract to four years, $51 million.

Closer was the Mets' top priority this off-season, after learning that Billy Wagner will likely be out for all of the 2009 season, the last year on Wagner's $43 million contract with the Mets, which he signed after the 2005 season.

Rodriguez saved 62 games for the Angels last year, a new major league record. Agent Paul Kinzer was initially looking for a 5-year deal worth $75 million for Rodriguez, who has registered at least 40 saves in each of the past four seasons. The closer will turn 27 in January.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Thanksgiving Football Losing Its Luster

Growing up, the best part about Thanksgiving wasn't the turkey, stuffing, or mashed potatoes. It wasn't the break from school for two and a half days. It was always sitting with family and watching NFL football.

People across the nation were treated to annual games at Detroit and Dallas, two teams that were always relevant throughout my childhood. They were able to see stars like Aikman, Irvin, Deion, Emmitt, and Barry Sanders carve up other teams and entertain like no others could.

But when you turn on the television tomorrow, you won't see those teams. You won't be wowed like you once were. Instead, you will have the opportunity of watching two games where the spread is over 11, and the third game isn't appealing, if you can even watch it.

Fact is, Thanksgiving football has become a sideshow, at best. The games have been toothless for years, and we haven't seen a legitimately interesting game since Barry retired.

Detroit has been irrelevant since that time, losing six of the last seven Thanksgiving games while not sporting a winning record over that span. They have been consistently blown out, losing their last four by an average of 13 points, and last year would have been worse if not for a few garbage time touchdowns. This year doesn't look any better, as the 0-11 Lions host the 10-1 Titans.

Throughout their history, Detroit has been average on the holiday, going 33-33-2. But Sanders was vital to their success. The three years previous to Sanders joining the Lions, the Lions were 0-3. With Sanders, they went 7-3. After tomorrow, their record over the ten years since his retirement will be the exact opposite.

Dallas hasn't been much better. The organization hasn't won a playoff game since 1996, and has a 91-94 record overall in that span. Fans have been treated to quarterback performances by Mike Quinn, Randall Cunningham, Anthony Wright, Clint Stoerner, Quincy Carter, Ryan Leaf, Chad Hutchinson, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Henson, and Drew Bledsoe, all of which were either past their primes or never relevant in the NFL.

Clearly, the draw for Thanksgiving games has not been there since the heydeys of the 1990s for these two teams. But the NFL tried to jump-start the nostalgic tradition by adding a third game in 2006, but the games have been shown on NFL Network, which many people still do not have in their homes. Not that the match-ups have been desirable (Broncos-Chiefs in 2006, Colts-Falcons in 2007, and Eagles-Cardinals in 2008).

The sad part about this Thanksgiving is that the games all feature one team which is unbearable to watch. Dallas gets the Seahawks, who would be completely irrelevant if it wasn't Mike Holmgren's final season. We all know how bad Detroit is, but it will be compelling to see if they can run the table in reverse, looking terrible the entire way. And of course, there is the night game, which involves an Eagles team who has a lame-duck quarterback and a head coach who lost his team three years ago.

So as you sit down tomorrow after stuffing yourself with good food and you contemplate whether to turn on the games, take a nap instead. You will thank me later.

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Russell Struggling, But Don't Blame Him

Jamarcus Russell was the conventional choice for the Oakland Raiders in the 2007 NFL Draft. NFL fans, draft pundits, and the so-called experts all agreed that the Raiders needed change, and no better place to initiate change than with your on-field general.

Rumors are then-new head coach Lane Kiffin objected, saying he didn’t want to draft Russell. However, owner Al Davis overrode his objection, taking Russell anyway. What looked to be a perfect fit quickly became a troublesome situation for the organization.

Russell sat out summer workouts, training camp, and all of preseason in a contract holdout. While it was certainly in Russell’s best interest to practice with the team, it would have behooved the Raiders to do anything possible to get their prized quarterback into camp.

Fact is, Davis didn’t do enough as an owner to put his team in the best possible position for 2007 and 2008. The holdout not only had Russell catching up all of 2007, but it made 2008 his rookie season. Some of this is Russell’s fault, of course. However, let’s not allow Davis to get off the hook.

But the real crimp in Russell’s progress was the unjust firing of Kiffin. While writers and others have piled on Russell for his poor play, let’s take a step back and look at the big picture.

When Kiffin was fired, Russell expressed his disappointment by the decision. He and Kiffin had developed a working relationship, and Russell defended the job Kiffin had done with him and the entire team.

The two worked together during the offseason, throughout training camp, and spoke off the field. The relationship between coach and quarterback, always an important ingredient for a team’s success, was heading in the right direction. Kiffin was a quarterback guy, an offensive guru, and a success everywhere he went. And he was finding success in Oakland, especially with his quarterback.

Perception is a funny thing. People look at a head coach and judge success by wins and losses. By those standards, Kiffin was a failure with the silver and black. A 5-15 record isn’t something you write home about, but it’s the other numbers which show why Russell was on his way to becoming a star.

Let’s throw out Russell’s abbreviated “rookie” season. Russell was the unquestioned starter in Oakland coming into the 2008 season. In his first four games, the only four coached by Kiffin, Russell was making remarkable progress as an NFL quarterback.

In those games, Russell managed to have a quarterback rating of 80 or higher three times. His total quarterback rating was a solid 84.9, which would place him 19th in the NFL, right behind Matt Ryan. Russell was completing 54.5% of his passes, with four touchdowns to only one interception.

The numbers were solid, if unspectacular, and would certainly project to a decent NFL season. He wasn’t making the Pro Bowl, but I imagine Raider Nation would have been happy with a 16 touchdown, four interception season from a first-year starter.

However, Davis fired Kiffin, and the story of Russell’s season changed drastically. Since, he has thrown for fewer yards (621 to 668) on more attempts (117 to 99) while completing fewer passes (51 to 54). Oh yeah, he has also thrown fewer touchdowns (2 to 4) and more interceptions (3 to 1). Naturally, his quarterback rating in those games is a paltry 55.5, has risen above 67 only once, and it has gone down in each of the last three weeks.

Clearly, coach Tom Cable, an offensive line coach before being named head coach, hasn’t developed the rapport with Russell that Kiffin did. Is that Russell’s fault? Absolutely not.

Davis not only hit the reset button with his coaching staff, but he has set his prized quarterback back at the beginning, expecting him to perform miracles. At the rate Cable is going, it wouldn’t be surprising to see another person lead the Raiders starting next season.

To say the least, it will once again put Russell in a difficult spot. Let’s stop thinking Russell is a flop, and if the Raiders give him a chance to succeed, we just may see the promise that made him the (disputed) number one pick just 19 months ago.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

Jamelle Cornley Transcript

The transcript of the interview Chris DiGiacomo (CD) and I (MP) had with senior captain Jamelle Cornley (JC). Cornley is one of the best players in Penn State basketball history. He is a 1,000 point scorer and looks to finish the year in the top 10 in school history in points and rebounds.

Cornley enters the year as the unquestioned leader of the team, bringing a high level of intensity to the court for each and every game. To say the least, he is fired up about this year and how last season ended.

MP: Jamelle, what are some of the things you’re looking to accomplish with this team, this being your senior season?

JC: First off, win as many games as possible. I think every team in the country wants to do that. But, to make sure we go ahead and play as hard as we can. Outside of the bigger goals, such as winning the Big Ten championship and getting to the NCAA tournament, we want to start at some of the smaller goals. And that would be protecting this home court and win as many games as possible and have fun. So it should be a season to remember, and hopefully we’ll be able to accomplish some of those goals.

CD: You talked about the home court. What do you want to say to those fans out there? We saw them pack it strong especially late last season. What are you gonna say to them to come back and fill this place up again?

JC: I think we’re not done yet. We’ve just really started. That’s pretty much my message. I’m actually meeting with some of the student section later on tonight, and we’re not done yet. We’re just starting, and hopefully you can come out and support us because we’re gonna give it our all, especially under me. I’m gonna make sure we play as hard as we can. I can’t promise you we’re gonna win every game or we’ll score a ton of points, but we’re gonna play as hard as we can. We can control that.

MP: Now you guys, you had the unfortunate injury with Geary Claxton early in Big Ten play last season. However, a lot of the young guys then got to play, and you guys got to play together as a group, and a lot of those guys came back this season. How big do you think that was in terms of the team’s success this season?

JC: It was huge because now they’re able to play in pressure situations. We lost close games and we won close games. An example of that is the Indiana game here, and another example of that is the Illinois game in the Big Ten tournament. So we know what it takes to win and we know what it takes to lose, and you know your feeling on that. You never want those feelings when you lose close games. So, you carry on some of that experience and some of that energy and all that stuff and bring it to the beginning of the season, and hopefully things will happen on the positive end.

CD: Obviously, this is your senior year. Let’s say 5-10 years from now, what do you want people to say about you and the way that you played, remembering your time here at Penn State?

JC: 5-10 years from now, I pretty much want them to say that Jamelle Cornley came out here and gave everything he had to turn around this program. He was a leader that made sure everyone felt comfortable, and he wanted to make sure that everybody understood that if you continue to work hard, you’ll be successful one way or another. That’s pretty much my biggest goal. There’s no individual stats that I want. I don’t really care for that at all, but to make sure that Jamelle Cornley put everything out here, and that he tried to put some people in these seats.

MP: Now you talked about the Illinois game last year that ended your season in the Big Ten tournament. A lot of people thought that might have been a premature ending, that you guys maybe could have made a run the way you were playing at the end of the season. How much have you guys thought about that game, and in the off-season, use that as fuel to get you guys going in the off-season?

JC: I think that that game, unfortunately it was the last game of the season, but that game I was probably most proud of the team because they were so angry at the end. And when you have the anger that they had, I think that they were ready to play some more, and they were ready to get back into the flow of the upcoming season. So we use that as motivation because Illinois kind of over-celebrated, we felt. We took that as, we did our job, we beat them twice already. They deserved that win. They played hard and everything. But I think the team was pretty pissed off and we’re gonna use that as some motivation for not just them this year, but for every team that we play against.

CD: Obviously, everyone we have talked to says that you are the unquestioned leader of this team. But guys like Stanley and Talor, they got to get some experience last year, and they’ve been able to give some advice to the freshmen. What has their transition to becoming team leaders done for this team in your mind?

JC: It’s done a lot because now they have to look at themselves and say ‘I’m here now. I’m a veteran now.’ They understand what it takes to win the games and how hard it is to fight back. Now, they have to take that knowledge and pass it on to somebody else. So it not only helps the team, but it helps me too, because now I don’t have to feel obligated to try to tell everybody certain things. The younger guys can go and talk to Stanley and Talor and guys like that, so it helps out a lot.

Talor Battle Transcript

The transcript of the interview Chris DiGiacomo (CD) and I (MP) had with sophomore point guard Talor Battle (TB). Last year as a freshman, Battle became a leader on the Nittany Lions squad and made a number of big shots throughout the season. Battle became a star last year against Michigan, setting career highs with 28 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, and 7 three-pointers made.

Battle enters the season as one of Penn State's young guns, and the expectations for the second-year player from Albany, NY are as high as any point guard in Penn State history.

MP: Alright, Talor, last year you guys took a lot of steps certainly late in the year to become a better team. What kind of stuff did you do in the off-season to prepare for this season?

TB: I just wanted to be a consistent shooter. Last year, I started off the season poorly shooting the basketball, so one of my goals was to work on my consistency in knocking down shots, and working on my pull-up, mid-range jump shots, and I really think I progressed throughout the summer.

CD: Talor, we saw at times last year where you would put the team on your back and really step up as a playmaker. What would you say coming into this year are you bringing to the table that would help define you from last year?

TB: I think a big thing is leadership. Obviously, as a point guard, leadership really comes along with it and I think I need to help lead more. And obviously, it’s not just about shooting. I just want to be a playmaker, like you said. Whether it’s one game I have 13 assists one night, or scoring 25 another night, I just want to go out and be able to do whatever I can do to help my team win.

MP: A lot of times last year you were looked at to take a shot late in the game to either win a game or send it to overtime. How much confidence did the coaching staff really instill in you when they were looking to you at the end of the game?

TB: I guess they had some confidence in me to give me the ball. My whole life I always wanted to take the last shot. And I’m obviously man enough if I miss it to take it and deal with the fact that I kind of lost us the game, maybe if you want to say that. But, obviously, I’m just real confident, so in late game situations, I just want to step up and take the shot, and I’m glad the coaches have confidence in me to do so.

CD: You guys had some big wins here, especially in this house last year against Michigan State, most notably. What do you say to those fans out there that you hope continue to keep coming back and filling up the seats here at the BJC?

TB: They’re big. They’re a big component to our success, and none of that last year could have been possible without them, and we just hope they keep showing up, and we’re gonna do our best to win games for them and for ourselves and for the program.

MP: Jamelle said that after the Illinois loss last year to end your season that a lot of the team was upset and really angry about how the season had ended. What did you come out of that game with, personally. Were you angry, upset or anything?

TB: I was really upset because I kind of left my man and let him score the game winning lay-up. So, I kind of blew us a game so to speak, so I was really upset and it kind of ate at me. I’m just really ready to get back at it and just hopefully the NCAA tournament.

MP: Did you use that as motivation in the off-season to prepare for this year?

TB: I don’t know if I used that, I used a lot of things as motivation. Obviously, I just want to get better. I don’t really think you should need motivation, you should just want to be able to go out and get better on your own. That’s kind of what I do, and I’m just really looking forward to this year.

CD: Where do you see this team ending up this season? There are a lot of hopes this year and you guys seem very, very confident in getting the record better, and continuing on your progress to next year. Where do you guys see at the end of this season? What’s your ultimate goal?

TB: We want to be dancing at the end of the season. I would be lying to you if I told you we didn’t. That’s our goal, we just want to be in the NCAA tournament and we’re working hard and hopefully we got all the pieces of the puzzle to get there and we just win games. But what we gotta do is to win on the road. Obviously, we have shown that we can win here, but the road is what’s going to determine whether or not we get into the dance.

MP: What do you think is the most important part in taking that next step and making the NCAA tournament?

TB: I think we gotta defend. Obviously, that’s been a knock the past couple years, that we haven’t defended, and we’ve really been working hard this preseason and over the summer. We’re ready to go and we’re fired up, trying to get into guys, and create offense off our defense, like I said so we can get to the tournament.

Andrew Jones Transcript

Here is the transcript of the interview Chris DiGiacomo (CD) and I (MP) had with redshirt sophomore forward Andrew Jones III (AJ) earlier today. Last year, Jones saw increased playing time after the injury of Geary Claxton. He posted season-highs in points and rebounds against Ohio State January 29th, scoring 11 points and pulling in 10 rebounds. In the Big Ten tournament loss against Illinois, Jones impressed again with 10 points and 6 rebounds.

MP: Andrew, last year you saw a lot of progression, especially towards the end of the season, both as a team and for you personally. What kinds of things are you looking to do this year to carry over that momentum that you had at the end of last season into this year?

AJ: Just building on my strengths and trying to work on my weaknesses. Finishing around the basket a lot more, I think that some of the weight and strength games helped me with that, and my confidence has been through the roof. And pretty much just rebounding the ball, you know, not letting guys relax on the defensive glass or on the offensive glass, knowing that I’ll be coming through the lane trying to snag them. Just trying to keep defenses on their heels, continuing to run the floor cause we want to play a more up-tempo game. Not letting defenses set up, stuff like that.

CD: Especially last year, we saw you work your way into a bigger role onto this team, and now a year under your belt, what do you see with this team as a whole, improvements and what not, going into the Big Ten and hopefully the NCAA tournament.

AJ: As hard as we’ve worked, I definitely can’t see us doing anything but reaching the NCAA tournament. I mean, we go hard at it every practice. We’re constantly trying to make each other better, constantly trying to buy into the concepts that Coach and the assistant coaches are trying to instill in us. And I just think that our work ethic and our will to win is definitely so strong that we pretty much can’t accept anything but that. And with the talent we have on this team, there’s definitely no reason we can’t achieve that goal.

MP: You talked about putting on more weight in the off-season coming into this year. How do you think that’s going to help you compete in a physical Big Ten?

AJ: Well because the Big Ten is so physical, and even in a lot of our regular season games, you gotta be able to hold your own. You know, you can’t be pushed around, you can’t be thrown around the lane. You know, you gotta hold your position, you gotta hold your box-outs, hold your low-post position so you can score around the basket and stuff like that. You know, when a guy is driving, you gotta be able to body up, push him back out, stuff like that, and a lot of that comes with core strength. We do a lot of core strength, stuff like that, so it’s just like the little muscles that you need to rely on when your bigger muscles break down, stuff like that. So I definitely think stuff like that, as far as all my teammates, that we’ve done is gonna help.

CD: Especially last year, we saw against Michigan State and a few other games, like Indiana, you guys really fed off the crowd and it really helped you late in games. What do you gotta do this year? What do you have to say to the fans out there who really started packing into this place last season? What do you say to them about this team and to continue coming back here to the BJC and watch you guys?

AJ: I think the first thing is thank you, cause like you said, we feed off of their energy. That’s where we get ours from. You know, a lot of times when we’re fatigued, we hear them, we look over to the side, see Nittany Nation, and that gets us going. So we definitely appreciate all their support and all of our season ticket holders, their support. They come out and support us all the time here at all the functions when we’re out here. And we see that kind of support, it just wants you to work harder. It forces you to buckle down, you know, get that extra stop on defense, you know, hit those extra free throws that we need.

MP: You talked about some of the things you want to improve from last season. What are some of the things that you yourself are looking to improve upon from last season. Is it scoring? Rebounding? What are some of those things for you personally?

AJ: I’m looking to improve everything: defense, post defense, perimeter defense, finishing around the basket, free throw shooting, scoring, more offensive rebounds, and more defensive rebounds. So pretty much anything that I can do to get us better is what I’m looking to do.

MP: You guys lost to Illinois at the end of last season to end your season, and we’ve heard a couple guys say ‘Yeah, you know, it was upsetting. We weren’t happy with the way that the season ended, and we’ve kind of used it to focus in the off season.’ Do you find that true with yourself?

AJ: Definitely. I didn’t get over that for awhile. That whole week, just watching them continue to move on in the Big Ten tournament, that was tough to see them get all the way there, knowing that should have been us. But, we just use it as motivation. About a week or two after that we were right back at it, right back in the gym trying to get better, using that as motivation. We still have a sour taste in our mouth to this day. That’s just still motivation to come out here and work hard and do what we gotta do so we can win more games.

Cammeron Woodyard Transcript

Here is the transcript of the interview Chris DiGiacomo (CD) and I (MP) had with freshman guard Cammeron Woodyard (CM). Woodyard is a 6-5 195 lb. freshman out of Winters Mill High School in Westminster, Maryland.

MP: You guys took the trip to Canada. You’re a freshman. What was that experience like, playing at a collegiate level with the team?

CW: I would say it was a positive experience. Coming in, practicing early in August and getting a few practices under your belt coming into the season. Overall, I think it was pretty good. Got to bond with the team a little bit off the court and on the court. I think we got closer and got better as a team overall.

MP: Now, from what I hear the coaches were very impressed with how you played up in Canada. How important is that to establish yourself early in the season to get more playing time later in the year?

CW: I see it as very important. Every chance you get to hit the floor, even in practice, you gotta play hard, show the coaches you could play at this level. If that’s what they’re saying, then obviously I think I’ve done an ok job of playing hard and I’m just gonna continue doing what I can do.

MP: What are some of the things you’re looking to improve on as the season goes on? Is it physically, maybe mentally, or maybe on and off the court?

CW: Everything. Like you just asked, on and off the court: class. That’s first and foremost. You can’t be a student-athlete without the student. You gotta take care of business in the classroom before you come on the court, step inside the lines. When you get on the court, it’s just play hard, mentally and physically and everything. Physically, I gotta stay strong, stay in it. And mentally, I gotta keep my head in the game.

CD: Certainly, this team has a lot of leaders with Jamelle and Talor. What would you say they have done for you so far in your time here and are you happy to play with them this year?

CW: Oh yeah, I’m very happy to play with everybody on the team. But the leaders, Jamelle, D-Mor [Danny Morrissey], Talor, everyone on the team that’s not a freshman, anyone that gives advice, I appreciate their advice. They give great advice, even if it’s not on the court. You know, get up every morning, go to breakfast to make sure you eat right, get enough sleep at night. It’s the little things that count, and they make sure that you know the little things and make sure you get things done.

MP: What’s been the biggest adjustment between high school and college so far?

CW: I would say the biggest adjustment would have to be, probably as far as the game, the speed of the game, how much more physical it is. The referees are going to make less calls as far as fouls and things like that. I just say the speed of the overall game, things like that.

MP: What are your personal goals for this year?

CW: Just to work hard, get a little bit of playing time, impress the coaches, and show them I can compete at a Big Ten level.

CD: Exciting atmosphere, obviously. How exciting is it going to be to be in a stadium like this? Obviously, you don’t see anything like this in high school. Just being on a big level like this, just explain some of your thoughts on it.

CW: It’s going to be very exciting. I came on my visit last year was when they played Michigan State here, beat them. It was huge. The arena erupted, and that was a big part of my commitment, just seeing the fans around the BJC, how many people come out and support and everything like that. It’s just overwhelming.

MP: You talked about academics before. What kind of classes are you taking right now and how do you feel that things are going? What kind of services does the team provide to make sure that you guys do well in the classroom?

CW: Well, right now I’m taking gen-ed classes. I’m undecided right now, so general education classes, things like that. Academically, we get things done because we have study hall, we have a team advisor, things like that. We have meetings set up, we have certain people we can go to, to make sure we make it to our meetings on time to help manage our time and things like that.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Penn State Basketball Media Day 2008

Earlier today, the Penn State men's basketball team held their annual media day, opening the doors to the Bryce Jordan Center for members of the media to talk to coach Ed DeChellis and his players. Between 30 and 40 media members showed up, and I, along with two colleagues from The Lion 90.7fm, Chris DiGiacomo and John Hayes, were able to talk to some of the team and listen to DeChellis' press conference.

I'll be posting the transcripts of as many interviews as I can over the next few days, both of what Chris and I recorded and what John got as well.

Overall, I would say that the team is eager to get their season started, and many of the players stated that their ultimate goal is to make the NCAA tournament. They truly believe that this team can make it, and they sound confident that they will do it.

Many of the players spoke at length about how upsetting their Big Ten tournament loss to Illinois was at the end of last season. They told us that they have been using it as motivation throughout the off-season, and have been working hard in order to be more successful.

Keep checking back for more interviews in the next few days, and anytime I get information, news, or interviews with people involved in Penn State basketball, I will post them here.

In the meantime, I encourage all of you Penn State hoops fans to check out Stacey Wild's blog/MySpace page for the men's basketball team. You can access it at www.myspace.com/wild4pennstatehoops. Stacey is working for the Penn State Athletic Department this year and will be close with the team all season. Be sure to check that out for all the great things she will be posting there.

Remember, the season tips off with the home opener November 14th against William & Mary.

Friday, September 5, 2008

Fearless Predictions for the 2008 NFL Season

Here they are. Write them down and place your bets, here is how the teams will finish this season. Also, take note of two of the boxes on the side of this page every week. One will be the winners of each game, the other will be picks against the spread. Take note and I’ll be sure to keep my record updated, don’t worry.

AFC East
New England 13-3
Buffalo 10-6
NY Jets 8-8
Miami 4-12

I keep trying to tell people this, but the Bills will be one of the surprise teams in the AFC this year. Trent Edwards had a decent year last year, and you can only expect him to get better with more playing time. They have a good running attack with Marshawn Lynch and enough receivers around Edwards to make plays. They upgraded the defense in the offseason (Marcus Stroud, Kawika Mitchell) and they still have some of the best special teams in the business. New England won’t be perfect, but they’ll still be the best team. Brett can’t get the Jets to the playoffs – yet – and Miami is on the upswing.

AFC North
Pittsburgh 10-6
Cincinnati 8-8
Cleveland 7-9
Baltimore 6-10

Cleveland is bound to have a down year after the ugly preseason they had. Derek Anderson slumped the second half of last year and that defense is suspect. Playing the NFC East doesn’t help their case. Pittsburgh wins this division mostly because every other team is incredibly flawed. Rashard Mendenhall better figure out his fumbling problems, though.

AFC South
Indianapolis 12-4
Jacksonville 11-5
Houston 10-6
Tennessee 6-10

This is the other surprise team of the year: Houston. A franchise that has been down for so long finally rises up and makes a serious run at the playoffs, that is if Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson stay healthy. Mario Williams is no joke, and Amobi Okoye is talented. DeMeco Ryans is a special talent, and don’t be surprised is Xavier Adibi out of Virginia Tech gets some playing time and surprises people. But this is the Colts’ division until proven otherwise. Peyton is still there, but the Jaguars are ready for another run. Tennessee doesn’t have the offense to hang with everyone.

AFC West
San Diego 12-4
Denver 8-8
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 5-11

There always has to be one division that isn’t up to snuff with the others, and that division is the West in the AFC (and NFC for that matter). The Chargers are clearly the class of the division, although Denver will make things interesting. Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall have a special connection, and playing in Mile High is never easy. Kansas City and Oakland continue to rebuild, and watch out for Herm Edwards’ job security. Another terrible year and he could be gone.

NFC East
Dallas 11-5
NY Giants 10-6
Philadelphia 10-6
Washington 6-10

Super Bowl champs have too much to replace to win the division, but it’s still a team that can compete (see previous post for further analysis). Dallas is just a tad too talented for the rest, but Philadelphia will hang tough. The Eagles success hinges on the health of Donovan McNabb, but their wide receivers are just too – how do you say it – underwhelming? – to make a difference. Washington struggles under first-year head coach Jim Zorn, but they could be a factor in a year.

NFC North
Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 9-7
Chicago 7-9
Detroit 6-10

So what if Brett is gone? The Pack are still set up to be a force in the NFC for years with a stalwart defense lead by AJ Hawk and a solid running game, courtesy of Ryan Grant. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is no Favre, but he doesn’t have to be. Minnesota’s passing game will bring the team down, and Chicago’s resurgent defense will bring them up (but not enough to overcome Kyle Orton, Rex Grossman, or whoever they put in at quarterback). Detroit’s passing game will decline with the departure of Mike Martz, but they will rediscover a running game with Kevin Smith and Rudi Johnson.

NFC South
New Orleans 12-4
Tampa Bay 8-8
Carolina 7-9
Atlanta 5-11

I think New Orleans is the best team in the NFC. A loaded offense with Brees, Bush, Shockey, and Colston, and an improved defense will make a difference. The addition of DT Sedrick Ellis (#7 overall pick was a beast at USC) in the middle will help the run defense, and the pass rush of Will Smith and Charles Grant will help a shaky secondary. Jonathan Vilma will also display the form that won him the 2004 defensive Rookie of the Year award. Joey Galloway finally shows his age, and Earnest Graham goes back to being, well, Earnest Graham. Carolina sputters under the expectations again, and Matt Ryan doesn’t pan out his first year in Atlanta.

NFC West
Seattle 10-6
Arizona 8-8
St. Louis 7-9
San Francisco 6-10

Seattle plays too well at home to not win this division. Any team that wins 7 or 8 games at home already has a jump start, and when you throw in Matt Hasselbeck, you have a recipe for success. Kurt Warner keeps Arizona competitive, though, but the defense is ultimately their undoing. The Rams rebound from a disastrous 2007, but Marc Bulger won’t be the same. Expect them to struggle, but start showing signs of life again. San Francisco is an absolute mess, but don’t blame head coach Mike Nolan. It’s not his fault Alex Smith was a product of the Urban Meyer system.

AFC Playoff Teams
1. New England
2. San Diego
3. Indianapolis
4. Pittsburgh
5. Jacksonville
6. Buffalo

AFC Championship
New England over San Diego

Shawn Merriman’s knee isn’t bad enough to lose the division, but it’s not good enough to beat the Patriots. Remember, New England still has the best coach (Belichick), best quarterback (Brady), and best wide receiver (Moss), and one heck of a defense. Speaking of which, watch for Jerod Mayo to be the defensive Rookie of the Year.

NFC Playoff Teams
1. New Orleans
2. Dallas
3. Green Bay
4. Seattle
5. NY Giants
6. Philadelphia

NFC Championship
New Orleans over Dallas

Tony Romo actually wins a playoff game, but still doesn’t get to the Super Bowl. New Orleans somehow finds a way to score enough points to win, and it costs Wade Phillips his job. Home field advantage plays a huge factor in this one, and Dallas can thank the tough NFC East for costing them a game or two for a trip to New Orleans. However, they get what they want when Jason Garrett agrees to become their head coach.

Super Bowl
New England over New Orleans

You don’t think the Pats are hungry after losing last year’s Super Bowl? This won’t be a perfect season, but they won’t be dogged by those questions all season. Brady cements himself as the best quarterback who ever lived, and Randy Moss and Junior Seau get their long-awaited rings. Last year’s version is still the best team to ever play (even without the ring, and it’s something I will contest forever) and this team wouldn’t beat last year’s, but they are still the best team this year, and that’s all that matters to Belichick.

Thursday, September 4, 2008

2008 New York Giants Preview

Are you ready for some football? The college football season started this past weekend, but now it’s time for the real deal. Thursday night will kick off the NFL season as the New York Football Giants will have their ceremonious home opener against the Washington Redskins (NBC 7 pm). The defending Super Bowl champions – yes I just had to say that to hear it in my own words, ‘cause it still sounds incredible, and unbelievable – look to prove the critics wrong again in 2008.

To say the least, this will be a difficult season for the Giants in many respects. Starting with the obvious, they have lost 4 starters on the defensive side of the ball, all of which were important to the team’s recent success. Gibril Wilson was one of the most underrated safeties in the NFC, but now he is with Oakland; and Kawika Mitchell, the team’s only significant free agent signee before last season, is now in Buffalo.

But the biggest losses are on the defensive line, where future Hall of Famer Michael Strahan retired and now injured All-Pro Osi Umenyiora once were. The two combined for 22 sacks last season, and even more, they were game changers. Losing one wasn’t catastrophic due to the emergence of Justin Tuck, the backup defensive end who registered 10 sacks last season. However, with Umenyiora now out with a knee injury, Matthias Kiwanuka has now been forced to move to defensive end.

Here is why I don’t think it’s AS big of a deal as people are making it out to be. Steve Spagnuolo’s system with his defense is complex, both for the Giants players and especially for the opposing offenses. Just ask the Patriots offensive line, who had no idea what was coming at them in February. Look at the place he came from: Philadelphia. In their years of dominance, with the exception of 2004 when they had Jevon Kearse, the Eagles never had a traditionally dominant pass rusher. Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson was able to use schemes to make his front seven more formidable as a unit than they were as individual parts.

I believe Spagnuolo has the same type of system in place in New York. While the individuals this year may not blow you away – Tuck, Barry Cofield, Fred Robbins, Kiwanuka, Antonio Pierce, Gerris Wilkinson, and Danny Clark – the scheming will have the players appear to be better than they actually are. While this isn’t a knock against Kawika Mitchell, who I thought was a solid linebacker in the system, I don’t regard his loss as highly as others have. Last year, the G-Men lost their best pass-rushing linebacker in Kiwanuka to a broken leg in week 6, and had to rely on Wilkinson and career underachiever Reggie Torbor at linebacker. Having another two who have learned the system won’t be as big of a downgrade as people think.

This is also possible because the secondary is as good as it has been in many years. With Aaron Ross proving himself at the end of last year, and Corey Webster’s incredible performance in the playoffs, the addition of Kenny Phillips in the draft makes this secondary young and extremely talented. Word out of Giants camp was that Webster and Ross were playing great and had easily sealed the deal as the starting cornerbacks. That leaves key contributors Sam Madison and R.W. McQuarters as the Nickel and Dime cornerbacks, which is better than what most teams have. I think that the pass rush doesn’t need to sustain itself as much as it needed to in recent years because of this secondary improvement, and the Giants defense should be a top-10 defense once again.

On the other side of the ball, the Giants of course lost Jeremy Shockey in the trade to the Saints. Once again, everyone doubts Big Blue’s ability on offense to score and sustain drives, which is precisely what the loyal followers heard after Tiki Barber retired after the 2006 season. Last year there were doubts about the running back depth and how the Giants would overcome the loss of Barber. Those doubts were answered emphatically with outstanding seasons from Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Ward, and Reuben Droughns. Bank on those four to be a huge factor once again in the Giants’ offense.

This year, the questions are at the tight end position. Fact is, Kevin Boss (who’s the Boss?!) is no Jeremy Shockey, and I don’t think anyone plans on him catching 80 balls a year while racking up 800 yards and 9 touchdowns. That’s for the other guys to handle. What they do expect is for Boss to be a solid blocker and catch somewhere around 50 passes and maybe take in 6 touchdowns. I’m not sure if anyone realized this, but Shockey only averaged about 60 catches and 4 touchdowns per year in his six seasons in New York anyway. Sure, he was a huge mismatch on safeties and linebackers, but the Giants didn’t use him as effectively anyway.

This is where the real strength of the Giants offense can come into play: wide receivers. Let’s look at the Giants top seven wide receivers: Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Steve Smith, Mario Manningham, Sinorice Moss, Domenik Hixon, David Tyree. Yes that’s right. The Super Bowl hero is seventh on the depth chart. We all know what Burress can do and that Toomer is Eli’s favorite security blanket, but did anyone notice how well Steve Smith played when he was healthy? (See playoffs, 4th quarter catch in Super Bowl XLII on final drive) The dude is from USC, has hands of gold, and knows what it’s like to be on the big stage. Expect a huge year from him if he can stay healthy. Manningham is a Michigan guy (like Toomer) who, trust me on this being a Penn State fan and Michigan-hater, can run good routes and surprise a defense with his speed. If he can stay out of trouble, he will be a good player in this league. Moss has to stay healthy, but he, Hixon, and Tyree can all stretch the field when they are healthy. Look for this “weakness,” as the experts are calling it, to be a real strength for the Giants this year.

Finally, that brings us to – not Eli just yet – the offensive line. We’ll simply say this about these guys: Joe Theismann may have said they were the worst offensive line a few years ago, but he would say right now that they are one of the best. They don’t get any publicity, and nobody says that they are one of the best in the league, but this group has played together for a few years and they have gelled. Shaun O’Hara is an invaluable leader, and David Diehl and Chris Snee have really come into their own. There is a reason this rushing game has been so good for so many years. Give some credit to the big guys up front for that.

NOW we can start talking Eli. Put simply, the guy had a great end of the season after one of the worst stretches in the history of the NFL. Eli was terrible from weeks 11-16 last year (from the Minnesota debacle to the crazy game in Buffalo) where he combined for four touchdowns and eight interceptions, while completing 45% of his passes. That’s not a misprint – 45%. He was pathetic, inept, and generally awful – putting it mildly. Then, all of a sudden, he became the golden boy everyone thought he would be starting with that week 17 Patriots game. We all know what happened from there.

But the past is the past and now it’s time to start talking about THIS YEAR’s Eli Manning. What does he have to do? Well exactly what he did in those magical five games. It’s simple, really: keep it simple. Don’t try to be a hero, let the players around you do the hard work. I think Kevin Gilbride understands this as will gear his offense around that, although I do see them taking shots down the field more often with the wide receivers. I think Eli will have an above-average year. Nothing flashy to make him the league MVP, but solid quarterback play.

As for predictions, here is where I see this team. The Giants are one of only four teams to have made the playoffs each of the last four years – along with the Patriots, Colts, and Seahawks. So why does everyone think that every year this team will be 6-10, 7-9 at best? I’m not sure. Eli is a true leader on this team, and they have overcome a lot going into every season the past three years. Who’s to say that a few losses in personnel won’t hurt them this year? Everything is eerily similar to last year’s beginning, with the exception that the Giants have newly minted rings on their fingers. This team should get out of the gate quickly with games against Washington, St. Louis, and Cincinnati, but the last four games could be disastrous – Philadelphia, at Dallas, Carolina, at Minnesota. If they play up to their capabilities, they should win three of those last four, but if they falter, they could go 0-4 in that stretch.

I see them splitting their division schedule to go 3-3. I imagine them taking at least three of four from the NFC West (the game against the Seahawks is in the Meadowlands, so that’s a coin flip), which brings their record to 6-4. As for the out of conference games (AFC North), I see Cleveland having a down year, Baltimore and Cincinnati should be wins, and Pittsburgh should be a loss considering how strong they are at home, bringing the record to 9-5. This brings us to the last two games against the Panthers and Vikings, who are two teams that could be anywhere from division winners to third-place finishers in their division. They rely on the quarterback position, and banking on Jake Delhomme is risky for me, and Tarvaris Jackson has proven little, if anything so far in his career. I’ll say they split those games as well, bringing them to a record of 10-6 overall. That should place them second in the division behind Dallas, and one spot ahead of Philadelphia. Washington should struggle with Jim Zorn, finishing fourth, although that doesn’t mean you’re a bad team in the NFC East.

Look for another Wild Card this year, Giants fans. 10-6 is not out of the question, although with this team’s potential, neither is 12-4. I’ll stick with 10 wins, which every Giants fan should be happy with this year.

Friday, July 11, 2008

The Mets Next Big Move

The New York Mets are currently on a tear. They have won six in a row, closing the Phillies’ division lead to 1.5 games, and have finally started to look like the team everyone thought they would be at the start of the season. They are 4 games over .500, tied for their season high since being 10-6 on April 19. The pitching has started to really come around, and the hitting has started to really produce. However, this team is not built to get to win in October, and maybe not even to get there. They have one big move left to make.

Sign Barry Bonds.

I know, Mets fans. You’re saying I’m crazy and have no credibility left. But let me explain to you why he is not only a good fit but also the best move the Mets can make.

If you have spoken to me about the Barry Bonds situation in recent years, you know that I am no fan of Bonds. I think he is a cheater and I hate that he played a big part in baseball’s darkest days.

However, I am also a realist and I know a flawed team when I see one. Just yesterday, it was revealed that Moises Alou has a torn hamstring and is likely out for the year, if not for the rest of his career. That leaves a spot open in left field. Yes, I know some of you will say, “Well, that’s why we have Endy Chavez, the super sub who makes incredible catches.” Yes, but he is exactly that: a super sub, not a true starter.

Just to add on to the problem in the outfield, Ryan Church is on the DL again. When healthy, Church has been arguably the Mets most consistent hitter. But two concussions have severely hindered his productivity, and he just hasn’t been the same since his collision in Atlanta. Now, if Endy is in left, who will play right? Let’s review the options the Mets have for right field if Endy is in left: Fernando Tatis, Nick Evans, Marlon Anderson, Chris Aguila, Damion Easley, and maybe some other minor league players.

They can all fill a void and be a body in the corner outfield, but they don’t fulfill the other need the Mets have. They need a power hitter in the middle of that lineup. Carlos Delgado is too inconsistent and Carlos Beltran is not a true cleanup hitter. He is a better #3 or #5, and seeing that David Wright has the #3 spot locked up, Beltran best fits in the 5-hole.

Bonds would fit perfectly here; a corner outfielder with a ton of power and gets on base a lot. Consider Barry Bonds’ stats from 2007: 126 games, 340 at-bats, .276 average, 28 home runs and 66 RBI on a team that didn’t have anyone else in the lineup, 132 walks, .480 on base percentage, 1.045 OPS.

He gives the Mets the power numbers they need, and would make the Mets lineup one of the best in the league. Consider this starting nine with Bonds in left and Chavez in right:

Jose Reyes
Endy Chavez
David Wright
Barry Bonds
Carlos Beltran
Carlos Delgado
Damion Easley/Luis Castillo
Brian Schneider/Ramon Castro

That would be an intimidating lineup that few in the league could match. Mets fans: forget the possible steroid use, forget the public relations nightmare that the move could be. Answer this question, because it is the only one that matters: does this move make the Mets a better team?

The answer is a resounding yes. Bonds would make the Mets the best team in the East and probably the best team in the NL. The best part? You don’t have to trade for him, don’t lose any prospects to get him, you don’t have to enter a bidding war like you would with Roger Clemens. He has received no offers, and his agent says he can be ready in ten days. So heck, why not offer him a one year, $1 million contract?

When you have a chance to add a premier player like Bonds, sometimes it’s just best to swallow your pride and make your team as good as it can be.

Monday, March 10, 2008

Mets May Have an Angel in Pagan

The Mets made the biggest off-season splash this winter by trading for Johan Santana at the end of January. With that move they became the favorites in the National League and filled their biggest need of the off-season, which was an ace for the top of their rotation.

However, Omar Minaya was up to his old tricks, making moves under the radar that could pay off as the year continues. He has a history of steals and finding gems around the league, and this year that acquisition could be Angel Pagan. Not only does Pagan fill the Mets’ need for outfield depth, but he also came at a cheap price. Minaya gave up two minor leaguers for Pagan, who could find a lot of playing time this year in New York.

The Mets have a very old team and it’s a team that can be injury-prone. They have already seen that so far in spring training as the Mets watched six of their eight projected starters along with some key reserves get injured. Included in those injuries are the three starting outfielders, Carlos Beltran, Moises Alou, and Ryan Church, and their primary backup in Chavez.

While Beltran and Church are both projected to be starting on Opening Day, Alou is out after having hernia surgery March 6 and is believed to be sidelined four to six weeks. That means Endy Chavez will most likely be the primary starter in his absence.

That brings us to Pagan, who will likely become the fourth outfielder and share time with Chavez. In case you haven’t been following spring training, Pagan has been the most impressive hitter the Mets have seen. After Monday’s game against the Red Sox, Pagan is hitting .421 and his hustle impressed Willie Randolph after turning a bloop single into a double Sunday.

“That’s how you make the ballclub – with things like that. You’re batting average is not going to make the team. Those types of plays are going to make the team,” said Randolph. He must have been impressed when Pagan scored the Mets’ lone run on Monday on a ground out to first against a drawn-in infield.

Two years ago, Minaya found a gem when he traded Kris Benson for Jorge Julio, who was later traded to Arizona for Orlando Hernandez, and current starter John Maine. Later that year, Minaya got Oliver Perez as a throw in as a part of the Xavier Nady-for-Roberto Hernandez deal.

He also signed Endy Chavez in December of 2005. Jose Valentin was also an underrated signing, becoming the Mets starting second baseman in the 2006 division-winning season and was the second baseman until he broke his leg last year.

If Pagan is productive, the pressure of producing as a lineup without Alou is lightened, and Alou can make sure he comes back when he is 100% and not sooner. Pagan provides depth at a position where the Mets need it most. He is young, he hustles, and plays well defensively, which are all qualities you look for in a backup.

You can bet that Randolph would love a player like Pagan to be on the roster on Opening Day, and he should feel confident in his outfield depth if Pagan can keep up his play.

Thanks to another crafty move by Minaya, the Mets may already have the answer to their outfield problems already. They just might have to call him their “Angel in the Outfield.”

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

The Imperfect Champions

They didn’t deserve to take the field with this team. They were supposed to lose by double digits. The pressure of a Super Bowl was supposed to rattle this young team. The defense was supposed to be licking its wounds with dented confidence. The offense was supposed to be flummoxed because Bill Belichick had two weeks to prepare for them. They were supposed to be outcoached by the greatest coach in Super Bowl history and shredded by the greatest quarterback of the modern era.

The orders were flowing in for the "19-0" book that was being written before the game started. The term “19-0” was being trademarked by the franchise. Their quarterback laughed when it was predicted they would only score 17 points.

Turns out he could have used 17 points. Sorry Tom, the joke’s on you.

The New York Football Giants stunned everyone outside of Gotham (and even a few within) by beating the unbeatable New England Patriots. For one of the few times in my life, I can honestly say that I am thrilled I was wrong. In fact, I’m thrilled I was wrong three times in a row. Now of course, I was partially picking against them by the end out of superstition, but regardless, I was wrong. Happily, joyfully wrong.

They did the unthinkable by holding the highest scoring offense in NFL history to 14 points and blew away the Patriots offensive line, regarded as one of the better units in NFL history, and sacked Tom Brady five times, knocking him down numerous other times as well. Steve Spagnuolo is now the hottest coaching candidate since Charlie Weis a few years ago. His masterful game plan of disguised blitzes conjured up memories of the Giants defensive masterpiece against the Bills in Super Bowl XXV. You might remember who the genius was behind that plan: none other than Bill Belichick himself.

Eli Manning may have won Super Bowl MVP, but there are 11 guys on the other side of the ball who could make a case for that award. Justin Tuck played like a Pro Bowler, making 6 tackles while recording 2 sacks and a forced fumble, which was recovered by the Giants. Michael Strahan had a huge sack of Tom Brady. You may remember the next play, which was the 4th and 13 incomplete pass to the end zone, saving the Giants from a possible three points.

The Giants won this game with defense. They held the Patriots to their lowest point total of the year, 274 yards of total offense, and just 45 rushing yards. They were able to get to Brady with their down four linemen, starring Strahan, Tuck, and Osi Umenyiora. Heck, even rookie Jay Alford got in on the act on the Patriot’s final possession, driving Brady into the ground. While they didn’t use the all-out blitz as much as you would have thought they needed to, they confused Brady by bringing the blitz from all different angles and from many different players. Whether it was linebackers Kawika Mitchell and Antonio Pierce or defensive backs such as Aaron Ross, R.W. McQuarters, Sam Madison, Gibril Wilson, James Butler, or Corey Webster, someone was coming and Brady didn’t know who it was.

Of course, this means that Spagnuolo is now the leading candidate to get offered the Washington Redskins head coaching position, but with a little luck, “Spags” will stick around for one more year and master this defense again. But even if he does leave, everyone in New York will thank him for bringing us a title.

I reflected on this victory after the game, and a number of thoughts came to mind. First was obviously that Eli Manning has officially become a top flight quarterback. In the fourth quarter, he left people thinking of Joe Montana, going 9-14 for 152 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a quarterback rating of 140.5. He picked up his game to another level, when it matters most, and elevated his play to one of the best 4th quarter performances in Super Bowl history.

The second thing that comes to mind is how much Tom Coughlin has gone through in New York. People were calling for his head just a year ago, and when he got a one year extension, he was seen as a lame duck coach. Instead, he became embraced by this group of players, and their passion for him showed on Sunday. He may be tough on the players, and is not historically viewed as a very kind coach, but he was as deserving as any coach to win a championship.

The last thing I thought about was a little known fact: Giants GM Jerry Reese became the first African-American GM to win the Super Bowl. History continues to be made in the Super Bowl, and there was no better one to do it in than this one.

In what was the most watched Super Bowl ever, millions got to see the upstart New York Giants squash history. They saw the Giants bring the Vince Lombardi Trophy back to New Jersey, where it is made (Parsippany, in fact; my old hometown). They saw Eli become a star in the biggest city in the world. And most of all, they saw a group of players who refused to believe the naysayers, who weren’t intimidated by perfection, and who didn’t care about the history that could have been made.

They may not be the ideal champion, and they are certainly not perfect. But they are imperfect champions.

19-0? More like "18 and No". Maybe that’s a book worth printing.

Friday, February 1, 2008

Super Bowl XLII Preview

New York. Boston. Manning. Brady. Cinderella. Perfection.

In one of the most intriguing Super Bowls in recent memory, there are enough story lines to make this the most-watched Super Bowl of all time. Two of the biggest media markets in the country, and arguably the two largest on the east coast, are participating, and the old New York-Boston rivalry gets renewed, but this time it’s on the football field, not on the diamond.

The New York Football Giants continued their improbable run to Glendale by going into the frozen tundra we call Lambeau Field in the third coldest NFL game of all time and coming out with a victory in overtime. Lawrence Tynes, the kicker who was going to be run out of New York for missing two field goals in regulation, came through with a 47-yard field goal, the longest by an opponent in playoff history at Lambeau Field. Plaxico Burress had the greatest game by a Giants wide receiver in playoff history by snagging 11 balls for 151 yards. The Giants defense was able to shut down the vaunted passing attack of the Packers and Brett Favre, picking him off in overtime to set up the game-winning field goal.

The Patriots, on the other hand, survived a mediocre performance by Tom Brady and beat the San Diego Chargers 21-12 in Foxborough. Brady threw three interceptions but Laurence Maroney rushed for 122 yards and a touchdown to carry the offense to victory. The Patriots defense stepped up when in the defensive red zone, as the Chargers made three trips inside the Patriots 20 yard line, but only came up with three field goals. The game put people’s confidence back into the aging defense, especially the linebackers, who were being questioned as the season wore on.

After two weeks of debates and a ridiculous amount of analysis by the most random former football players the planet has to offer (Solomon Wilcox, Brian Baldinger, Jaime Dukes??) we finally have come to Super Bowl weekend, where we can get to the game.

This game reminds me of Super Bowl XXV where the Giants were underdogs to the Buffalo Bills and their high-powered offense led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, and Andre Reed. The Giants were trotting out a questioned quarterback in Jeff Hostetler and were coming off a road victory in the NFC Championship game against the San Francisco 49ers on a last second field goal by Matt Bahr. They also had a very deep running game with Otis Anderson, Rodney Hampton, and Dave Meggett, much like this year’s group of Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns.

Now, to this year's game. I like what the Giants have been doing this postseason, keeping Eli Manning controlled and not asking him to win the games for them. He has kept his passes from the short to intermediate range and allowed his receivers to work for yards after the catch, and that has been successful. The only time they asked Eli to “win the game” so to speak was at the end of the first half of the Cowboys game when he led them on that crucial touchdown drive to get the Giants back into the game.

The Giants rushing attack, led by Brandon Jacobs, poses a big problem for the Patriots, as their aging linebackers will have to tackle the 265-pound Jacobs about 20 times per game. Jacobs has been less productive this postseason, but he also has been up against the top defenses in the NFC. I believe that Jacobs will be reasonably effective and the Giants will run the ball early and often in order to keep the Patriots offense off the field. One of the more overlooked things in this game is that Ahmad Bradshaw will be in the lineup, which he wasn’t in the week 17 game between these two teams. As it has been documented many times before, Bradshaw provides the Giants with a very good change of pace from Jacobs, and has a great ability to break tackles and extend his rushes. I like the Giants ability to produce on the ground more in this game than they did in the first matchup against New England.

Through the air, I think you will see much of the same things the Giants have been doing all postseason, utilizing short completions to move the ball down the field. It will be tough against the Patriots secondary, although they can be vulnerable down the middle of the field. The Giants will take a few shots downfield with Plaxico Burress to keep the New England defense honest. Contrary to the Chargers, the Giants had a lot of success in the red zone against the Patriots, scoring four touchdowns in their four trips. They will need to do that again if they want to win this contest. They will have the ability to throw the fade route to Plaxico Burress, and they have also been able to complete passes in the middle of the field in the red zone recently (see week 17 touchdowns to Brandon Jacobs and Kevin Boss, Bucs game touchdown to Amani Toomer, Dallas game touchdown to Toomer). The Giants know that they cannot settle for field goals, and will do their best to punch it into the end zone. They had some struggles against the Packers, but I believe the friendlier conditions will help them in that regard, especially Eli, who plays much better in warm weather.

On the other side of the ball, New England’s potent offense likely hinges on the success of Tom Brady, who has had an incredible season. Brady, as you know, has been scrutinized this week for his slightly sprained right ankle. I believe that while it won’t be a huge factor, it will affect him a little bit against that Giants pass rush. You know that the Giants will be getting to Brady, even if they aren’t sacks, and you just might see them going after that ankle to make Brady uncomfortable. The Giants were able to do this in week 17, and that was without Sam Madison and Kawika Mitchell. The two weeks in between games really helped the Giants defense get healthy, especially in the secondary where they have been thin recently.

Randy Moss has been quiet during the playoffs, as teams have been double teaming him and forcing Brady to use his other receivers, Wes Welker, Donte Stallworth, Jabar Gaffney, and Ben Watson. The Giants will most likely jam the receivers, especially Moss, at the line and then roll a safety, likely Gibril Wilson, over the top of Moss to take away the deep ball that burned the Giants the last time. However, the Giants will need to keep Welker under wraps and limit his yards after the catch in order to be successful. If the secondary can keep Welker under wraps and limit Moss’ impact, and maybe come up with a turnover or two, then they have a real chance at winning this football game.

The Giants defense overall has done a very good job in this postseason, allowing only 17 points per game to some of the top offenses in the NFL this year and some of the best passing attacks there are. If they can have similar success against the Patriots, they will be in great position to win. That being said, there isn’t an offense in the league that compares to the Patriots’ this year, and very few in NFL history are comparable. Also, the Giants front four will have a tough task against the New England offensive line, which is one of the best in the NFL. The Giants will be forced to bring extra men with their exotic blitz schemes, which has been effective in the second halves of games this season. Expect to see corners, safeties, and linebackers all blitzing at various times throughout this game to force Brady into quick decisions.

Overall, I think this is going to be a very exciting and very tight game. The Giants must control the clock in order to stay close in this game, and I believe they will be able to do that. Eli Manning cannot, under any circumstances, turn the ball over, and he must make smart reads in order to keep the ball out of New England’s hands. Also, the Giants must do something on every possession. In the last matchup, they were only able to score touchdowns on the first and last possessions of each half, aided by a kick return touchdown. If they are to win this game, they will have to produce on most of their possessions. New York wasn’t able to do that, and they were dominated in time of possession, which killed their defense in the second half. However, Bradshaw and Jacobs will be running together, and that should make a positive impact for the Giants. They should be able to wear out the Patriots linebackers and use the run to take the pressure off of Eli. The Patriots on the other hand, will use their passing attack in order to score points on the Giants. While I have been impressed with the defensive attack of the Giants, the Patriots are a completely different animal. Their offensive line picks up blitzes better than anyone else in the NFL, and you can’t rattle Tom Brady. The secondary also worries me, and I believe the Pats will exploit the weaknesses the Giants have.

While I think the Giants can and will be able to play a close game with the Patriots, I think the offense of New England will be too much for the Giants to keep up with. This will be a close, competitive game, but in the end, the Patriots will come out on top. And heck, I have picked against Big Blue all postseason, so yeah, I’m doing this out of superstition as well. Hopefully, I’m wrong again.

Prediction: Patriots 31-24 (I really, really hope I’m wrong)

Saturday, January 19, 2008

NFC Championship Game Preview

Last weekend, the New York Football Giants pulled the upset in Dallas, creating one of the best story lines of the week: Eli making it further in the playoffs than his older and more talented brother, Peyton. It also gave us some of the best moments in post-game sports history as we saw Terrell Owens cry to defend his teammate, his quarterback in fact, Jerry Jones have that stunned look on his face as his $60 million investment crumbled in the fourth quarter, Wade Phillips have that dumbfounded look as he lost another playoff game, and Michael Strahan talking smack on TO and the ultra cocky Patrick Crayton. I’m pretty sure I haven’t had a more satisfying victory as a Giants fan since the NFC Championship game against the Vikings 7 years ago when they thrashed them 41-0. Unfortunately for New York, Brett Favre continued his storybook year by beating the Seahawks at Lambeau, and doing it convincingly. Now the road to the Super Bowl goes to Green Bay as the country will watch to see what improbable story continues: the Giants and their 9-1 record on the road with their oft-maligned quarterback, or the Packers and their ageless quarterback leading the young guns to Arizona.

As a die-hard Giants fan, I would obviously love for Big Blue to keep the road warrior theme going, but I believe that this weekend’s test against the Pack is their toughest of the season. I always thought the Packers were a better team than the Cowboys, and it starts with their defense. The Packers have a much better secondary than Dallas does, mostly because they actually have a safety who can cover, unlike Roy Williams, who is inexplicably a Pro Bowler this year. Atari Bigby, who I praised before the playoffs started, had a huge game against Seattle, forcing a fumble and causing the Seahawks wideouts to think twice about catching the ball. The Giants are going to have a problem on offense because those short-to-intermediate routes are going to be tough to come by as the Packers corners, Al Harris and Charles Woodson, get a good jam on receivers at the line of scrimmage, disrupting routes early. The Giants don’t have fast receivers that can take advantage of their slight lack of speed, and that is going to force Eli to try and fit the ball into tight windows. If he is a little bit off, those corners and safeties can step in and pick if off, and you have to wonder how early struggles would mess with Eli’s psyche.

I don’t fear the Green Bay front seven as much as other people do, as they failed to get any sacks in 4 of their last 5 games of the regular season. The Giants offensive line has gotten into the Packers heads a little bit with their so-called “dirty” play, which can only work in the Giants favor. Look for Eli to have solid protection, as the offensive line will most likely double Aaron Kampman and force someone else to beat them. The Giants will have to run the ball effectively in order to stay in this game early on, which means Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw must get big chunks of yards on first down to keep the Giants out of 2nd and 3rd and long situations to keep the defense off of Eli. I think they can do this with good effectiveness and should be able to keep the Packers defense guessing.

The Packers offense poses more problems for the Giants defense than the Cowboys offense did. They have the ability to spread the field and use more receivers to a better effect than Dallas, and their receivers get a lot of yards after the catch, which hurts the Giants because their secondary doesn’t exactly have the best tacklers in the league. Also, the Packers offensive line is incredible, allowing only 19 sacks all season. Combine that with the Packers short-pass attack and you have a recipe for disaster against the Giants. New York loves to blitz and use their front seven to get pressure on the quarterback, but if the Packers only use 3-step drops, then it is almost impossible to get there in time to sack Favre. When passing, the Pack should spread this thin secondary out with 4 and 5 wide receiver sets, forcing practice squad extraordinaire Geoffrey Pope into action more than we would like to see. Also, the Giants are vulnerable deep, as their safeties have trouble in deep coverage against speedy receivers, so when Green Bay takes shots down field, Greg Jennings should be open for Favre.

When running the ball, Green Bay has the former New York Giant Ryan Grant in the backfield. He has become one of the better young backs in the NFL, rushing for 201 yards against the Seahawks last week. The Giants will have to stop Grant if they want their pass rush to get to Favre, and it is going to be very hard to bring Grant down. He has a good burst of speed to make it to the second and third levels of a defense, then has enough power to run over linebackers and safeties. After watching Antonio Pierce get run over by Marion Barber last week, and knowing the tackling struggles of the safeties, the Giants will have a tough time if Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield can’t disrupt the play in the backfield early.

I can’t see the Giants offense being able to keep up with Green Bay’s early on. The Giants will have to lean on Eli more than they have so far this postseason, and he doesn’t perform well when asked to carry the load. I believe that they will be effective and be in the game, but it will be a far cry from last week’s. Favre should have a good game against the Giants depleted secondary and the quick throws will nullify the Giants pass rush. Ryan Grant will keep the defense honest and have a good game as well, although not the monstrous 200 yard game he had last week. By the time the 4th quarter comes though, Grant will become a huge factor and should wear down this Giants defense. Believe me, it hurts to know the season should end this weekend, as they have a much tougher task this weekend than they did last weekend. This Packers team is peaking at the right time, and while the Giants are as well, this Packers squad is more talented and not banged up like the Giants are. The Packers should move on to Arizona and face off against Tom Brady and the undefeated Pats in one of the more entertaining Super Bowls in recent memory. And hey, I picked against the Giants (albeit slightly) last week, so maybe my incorrect pick will come true again…. maybe.

Prediction: Packers 27-17 (Again, I hope I’m wrong)

Friday, January 18, 2008

AFC Championship Game Preview

Last weekend, the Chargers pulled the stunner of the playoff year as they went to Indianapolis and took out the defending Super Bowl champions, 28-24 behind the strong contributions of backups Billy Volek and Michael Turner. Their defense grabbed three turnovers by the Colts offense, stopping them in the red zone each time. Most impressively, they were able to put up 28 points on a Colts defense that lead the league in points against this season at 16 per game, and doing it with a backup quarterback, running back, and their All-Pro tight end playing at about 50%.

However, this weekend they go up against one of the best teams in the history of the game: the vaunted, undefeated, New England Patriots. Both teams have been undefeated since week 12, and they are a combined 15-0. But one team has to lose this weekend, and it will be the team from Southern California.

Why won’t the Chargers win? Well we can start by looking at the Patriots offense going against their defense. I don’t want to hear about how good the Chargers defense is, because it isn’t as good as people say it is. The fact is they were not that good against the Colts on Sunday, and had a few fortunate bounces go their way in order to hold them off. They gave up an astonishing 446 yards of offense, and if it wasn’t for some sloppy play by the Colts, they would have been blown out. The Colts had 10 offensive possessions in the game; they scored on 4 of those possessions (24 points), had three fluke turnovers in the red zone, turned it over on downs twice and forced one punt. That equates to a 30% “stop rate” as I call it. Looking back at the Colts game, if Marvin Harrison remembered how to run with a football and Kenton Keith didn’t drop an easy screen pass for an interception, the Colts most likely add another 10-14 points to their score. That would translate to a 38 point night on the Chargers defense, which would hardly be considered a good night.

The other problem is, the Patriots won’t be careless with the football, and they won’t be stopped inside the 10 for zero points. They only turned the ball over 15 times during the year, so to expect any more than one is a little much. However, the Chargers have a better pass rush than the Jaguars do, so they should be able to create more pressure on Tom Brady. Of course, that just means the Patriots receivers will have less defenders covering them and it opens up the defensive backfield that much more. The Chargers may have good individuals on their defense, but schematically they have a lot of issues this weekend against the Pats.

On the offensive side of the ball, it was recently reported that Philip Rivers has a partial tear of his ACL in his left knee and is worse off than what the Chargers are saying. That poses more problems than one would think. Billy Volek may have lead his team down the field last week for one score, but it becomes totally different when you have to do it over an entire game. He is only 3-7 as a starting quarterback in the NFL, and in a one-game season, I would doubt that Chargers fans really feel that comfortable with him back there. He will be looked at to manage the game and not make mistakes, which is dangerous against the Patriots.

The good news for San Diego is that LaDanian Tomlinson should be ready to go. He practiced a few times this week and expects to play. The bad news for Tomlinson is that if Volek plays, and maybe even if he doesn’t, the Pats should stuff 7 or 8 in the box to stop the run and force the Chargers to pass into the 20+ MPH winds that there will be on Sunday. That will cause lots of problems to this Chargers team who will have a severely weakened Antonio Gates hobbling around once again. He was only truly effective in the first and third quarters last week, and they will need a full game from him in order to have an effective passing game. I doubt it will be able to happen, and the Chargers should have a tough time keeping up with New England.

I believe the Patriots will dominate this football game from start to finish. I don’t believe in the Chargers defense as much as everyone else seems to, and I think that the Patriots offense will score a lot of points against them early and often. Tom Brady will pick apart the Chargers secondary when he has time to throw, and when he doesn’t he will throw his check downs and screen passes and allow his playmakers to pick up yards after the catch. The Chargers will have trouble establishing the run early on because the Pats will stuff the box. After New England builds an early lead, San Diego will be forced to throw in order to stay in the game, and I don’t think Billy Volek, or a hampered Philip Rivers, will be able to throw consistently in the high winds. The Chargers are in for a long day in Foxborough and it will show on the scoreboard. You can punch the Patriots ticket to the Super Bowl now, because this one isn’t going to be close.

Prediction: Patriots 42-17.

Friday, January 11, 2008

NFC Divisional Round Preview: Cowboys-Giants

All this week, we are looking at the divisional round matchups in the NFL playoffs. We finish up today, as we look at the Giants-Cowboys game, being played Sunday afternoon at 4:30 on FOX.

This is arguably the most talked about game of the weekend, as this is the third time these two teams meet this season. In the first game of the year, Dallas won an up-and-down shootout with the Giants in the stadium with the hole in the roof 45-35. In the rematch 9 weeks later at the Meadowlands, Dallas once again won a close game 31-21. However, there isn’t as much talk this week about those games as there is talk about the recent Dallas struggles, Terrell Owens’ ankle, and Tony Romo’s love interest, Jessica Simpson. With a hot quarterback in Eli Manning and a defense that has been dominant since Week 3 of the season, the Giants have become a trendy pick this week. But, before we simply pick based on trends, let’s take a look at this game and come to a real conclusion.

We may as well start with the melodrama that is the Dallas Cowboys, who have had all of the media focus this week. Dallas had an explosive offense this year, ranking in the top 5 in the NFL in yards, passing yards, and points. That was consistent with their performances against the Giants, although the second time around, the Giants defense performed much better than the first. However, Dallas was able to nullify the Giants pass rush and exploit the Giants weak secondary. Of the Giants 53 sacks this year, only 2 came against the Cowboys, who have a very good offensive line. The lack of pressure, or should I say, effective pressure, allowed Romo to find open receivers, especially ones named Terrell Owens.

There have been questions about TO’s status for the game on Sunday, but let’s get this straight: Owens is playing, regardless of how well he feels. There are two reasons for this: 1) Owens is a “gamer” and wouldn’t miss this one, or any playoff game, for the world, and 2) Cowboys owner Jerry Jones just might kill Wade Phillips in his sleep if TO doesn’t play.

Owens has been an absolute torture for many teams around the league, but especially the Giants. This year, Owens had 212 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, and it shows no sign of stopping if he plays this weekend. Sam Madison, regarded as the Giants best cornerback for who knows what reason, would most likely be assigned to Owens, and he simply does not have the speed to keep up with him. Combined with the poor coverage abilities of the Giants safeties, Owens should have another good day against Big Blue just by stepping on to the field. His presence opens up the possibilities for tight end Jason Witten and wide receiver Patrick Crayton. Also, Terry Glen may play this weekend, and he has been one of the more underrated receivers in the league.

However, the success of the passing game and the Cowboys as a whole depends on the legs of running back Marion Barber (oh heck, it also has to do with TO, but back to him in a second). In the 7 games in which the Cowboys as a team did not rush for 100 yards, they went 4-3 and threw for 300+ yards only once. You can argue they should have only been 2-5 in those games, as Buffalo and Detroit choked away victories in the last minutes with their shoddy play. Barber, the lead back for Dallas, must be fed the ball at least 20 times in this game to keep the threat of the run there for the Giants. If the neglect to use the running game, the Giants will be able to open up their wide array of blitzes to confuse Romo and force him to make mistakes, which he is prone to do, as evidenced by his 19 interceptions on the year. Going back to TO for a quick second, if you look at my NFC playoff preview, you can see the effectiveness the Cowboys offense lacks when Owens isn’t being fed the ball. It becomes a real problem for them when Owens and Barber aren’t feature players in this offense, and it will be the job of the Giants defense to stop them.

On offense, the Giants have been pretty average all season long, playing to the level of their competition. There are no huge disparities in their point totals whether they play a top 10 or bottom 10 defense, but recently the offense has been playing much better. Since the Redskins debacle, the Giants have averaged 32 points per game. They have gone back to Giants football, pounding the defense with Brandon Jacobs and then using play action and smart passes from Eli Manning to get down the field and score points. In their second game against the Cowboys this year, the Giants were able to dominate time of possession overall, having the ball for almost 10 more minutes than Dallas. However, it was in the second half when the Giants got away from their running game, and outside of one 9 minute drive, the Giants had the ball for a total of 7 minutes on 4 drives. Not surprisingly, Dallas took advantage of more time with the ball to score two critical touchdowns, which proved to be the difference in the game. If the Giants stay true to recent form by running the football around 30 times on Sunday, then use Manning to attack Dallas’ mediocre secondary, they will be able to have success.

In the passing game, Plaxico Burress has been injured all year long, much worse than TO is this week, and he has had an unbelievable year, catching 70 balls for 12 touchdowns. He is the big play threat for New York, and one of Eli’s favorite targets. However, it is Amani Toomer who is critical to the success of the Giants passing game. Toomer is Eli’s security blanket, and he is looked to for big third down completions. On the 9 minute drive last week against Tampa Bay, it was Toomer who, time after time, came up with the big catch to keep the drive going, and eventually, it was Toomer who caught the touchdown pass. Assuming the Cowboys try to keep Burress out of the game, it will be Toomer, fellow wide out Steve Smith, and tight end Kevin Boss who will be responsible for the big chunk of the passing game. Speaking of Boss, he has earned himself a cult following in New York, sparking cheers of “Who’s the Boss?!” amongst Giants fans. If the three of them are able to catch short-to-medium passes and turn them into first downs, that will open up the deep ball to Burress.

Ok, it’s time to wrap it all up and conclude who exactly will win the big game down in Dallas. I believe Dallas will come to their senses and go back to the running game they have lacked since their big win against Green Bay (averaging 72 yards per game). Even if Marion Barber doesn’t have a huge game, the number of carries will be what’s important to keep the Giants defense honest. Because of the threat of the run, Dallas will be able to use play action to open up the Giants secondary. They will find TO, but it will be up to the Giants corners and safeties to tackle him quickly and avoid giving up the big play. I think Terry Glen will be limited in his effectiveness, but Jason Witten should have a big game going against the Giants backup linebackers. I know the Giants defense is playing well, but we saw how troublesome a good set of wide receivers can be for this secondary in the Patriots game.

I think the Giants will run the ball on offense and will be able to keep Dallas off the field for the most part. They will turn and hand the ball of to Brandon Jacobs, who was 3rd in the league in yards per game and also 3rd amongst 1000+ yard rushers in yards per carry, along with Ahmad Bradshaw as a change-of-pace back. Dallas’ defense has struggled against the run lately, and that will continue in this game against Big Blue. Eli will have a fairly effective game, as he always does against this defense, but you can count on one interception. This time, I think we will see the Giants stick to the game plan in the second half of the game, not getting away from the run in order to “keep up” with Dallas. By running the ball, they will keep the Cowboys offense off the field and will use it to get down field.

I have been going back and forth on this pick all week. There are lots of reasons to pick both teams, as the Giants are hot and the Cowboys aren’t, but the Cowboys are going for the season sweep, which they have never completed. However, in typical Giants fashion, I believe they will resort to field goals in the red zone too often, whereas Dallas will score touchdowns. This is going to be a fierce, hard-hitting, close game, just like many of these games are. But in the end, it will be Terrell Owens who has a big game, and a big catch by Jason Witten will set up the winning field goal. And because Romo doesn’t hold for field goals anymore, they won’t screw it up. This game will be close all game, and it will come down to the final minutes, and it will be the best game of the weekend, but in the end, Dallas will prevail.

Prediction: Dallas 31-30 (Although I hope I’m wrong)