College Football Conference Look Out

All over the country, there are surprising teams looking to compete for their conference championships. The question is who will win and who will compete with them as the season comes down the stretch. We separate the men from the boys, the pretenders from the contenders, in every major conference and project who will end up in the BCS bowls.

ACC
Atlantic Division: Last year's winner, Wake Forest, has gotten off to a terrible start, going 2-2, including 1-1 in conference play, so it's safe to say they won't be making an appearance in the ACC championship game this year. It's clear that this is a two team race between Boston College and Clemson. Each team is 3-0, and BC has won all 3 conference games, and Clemson has won the only one they played. BC has the easier schedule left, and they probably have the better team. Matt Ryan has the senior leadership, and it has shown as he has thrown for 985 yards and 7 touchdowns over the first three games. They recently posted a solid win this week at Georgia Tech, which is no cupcake, and look to have the inside position. As for Clemson, they need junior QB Cullen Harper to continue improving like he has over the first 3 games, and this offense must keep scoring at its current rate. This division could be decided on November 17th when BC visits Clemson, which should be an exciting game with possible Heisman votes on the line for Ryan.

The Coastal division has arguably the worst two teams in the conference in Duke and North Carolina. The Tar Heels should be able to turn it around, however, with Butch Davis as head coach. Duke just ended a 22-game losing streak with a win at Northwestern. In any case, neither of those teams will finish at the top of the ACC this year, and that's what we are most concerned about. This division is weak, and teams such as Virginia and Miami have a chance to come through and beat Virginia Tech for the division title. Watch out for Miami, who looked impressive in crushing Texas A&M in the Orange Bowl last Thursday night. If Kyle Wright can play like he did (21-26, 275 yards, 2 TDs), look out for the Canes and new coach Randy Shannon. A successful season would be a huge boost in recruiting for Miami, who is moving into Joe Robbie Stadium next season, the current home of the Miami Dolphins.

Prediction: Look for Boston College to ride the arm of Matt Ryan into the ACC Championship game with hopes of a BCS bowl bid. In a late-season push, Miami will stun college football by winning the Coastal division after surviving the last 3 weeks of the season against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and BC. The rematch will be fun to watch, but expect Boston College to win the ACC Championship and represent arguably the country's worst conference in the BCS.

Big 12
North Division: As usual, the conference powers are in the South division, which means the North division is really just playing for second best in the conference. Of course, we did see this happen in 2003, when Kansas State shocked the college football world by absolutely destroying then #1 Oklahoma 35-7 (someone please tell me how Oklahoma went to the BCS title game after that and not USC, who was #1 in both the AP and coaches polls?) so who knows what will happen this season. When I look at the North, I see three teams that can compete for the conference title: Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska. Missouri is for real people, and they get tough tests in the next two weeks, hosting Nebraska next weekend and then traveling to Norman for a match-up against the Sooners of Oklahoma. The Missouri offense should have fun against Nebraska's "black shirt" defense, which has looked like a shell of its old self in giving up 49 points to USC and 40 at home to Ball State. Make no mistake, Nebraska can score as well, and look for them to do just that behind the arm of Sam Keller. Marlon Lucky is second in the conference in rushing, and that should continue. Kansas has to be the least-talked about 4-0 team in college football history. Consider this: they are 4-0, play in a major conference, and are 3rd in the nation in points per game at 53.5, only behind Oklahoma and Hawaii. Sure, they have only played Central Michigan, Southeast Louisiana, Toledo, and Florida International, but they have manhandled the teams they were supposed to beat. This could be a three team race to the finish. Key games: 10/06 Nebraska @ Missouri; 11/03 Nebraska @ Kansas; 11/24 Missouri @ Kansas.

South Division: The usual suspects are around in this division, as Oklahoma and Texas received a lot of pre-season hype, and Oklahoma has surpassed what many thought they were capable of. Everyone in this division is currently at least .500, which should make for some fun southern football the rest of the year. You can't help but think that Baylor and Oklahoma State will fall off, which leaves us with Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, and Texas Tech. Tech was upset last week against Ok. St. which gives me the impression that the pass-happy offense, featuring Graham Harrel this year, who is first in the country in attempts, yards, and passing touchdowns, isn't ready to seriously compete for a Big-12 title. A&M was destroyed two Thursdays ago by Miami in the Orange Bowl, and I can't see them making it through the rest of the season unscathed. They have to play Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri all on the road, along with Kansas and Texas at home. And that is how they finish the season. So after discarding the Aggies and Red Raiders, we come back to the premier teams: Oklahoma and Texas. Oklahoma, while young (QB Sam Bradford and RB DeMarco Murray are both freshman), has scored the most points in the nation, averaging an astonishing 61.5 points per game. They get to cruise through this weekend's game against Colorado before playing the Red River Shootout against Texas on Oct. 6. Speaking of those Longhorns, what has gone on down there? Sure they are 4-0, but you can't help but wonder about those first three games that were much closer than they should have been. Colt McCoy better be ready to step up, because we know that the only conference game that matters to Texas is the one against the Sooners.
Key game: 10/06 Oklahoma vs. Texas (neutral field) is the only game that matters... ever

Prediction: Look for Missouri to beat Nebraska next weekend, setting up an important end-of-year game against Kansas, which they will win to move on to the Big 12 championship. Unfortunately, they are just playing for second place, because Oklahoma is going to blow everyone away this season, provided they stay healthy and Bradford doesn't have any hiccups along the way. Look for the Sooners to compete for the BCS championship this season, because they are one of the top 3-5 teams in the country.

Big East
When I was first writing this a few weeks ago, Louisville was actually a good team with a slight defensive problem. Good thing I waited to talk about them, because they have much more than a slight problem on that defense. I was OK with their loss at Kentucky, because they are a good team lead by a good QB. But Syracuse? A team that was 0-3 to start the year, was in the bottom 10 of almost every offensive category, and they hang 38 on you at home? Absolutely unforgivable, so they don't get considered for the conference champion here. Instead, this comes down to four teams; two are obvious and two ares just making names for themselves. Rutgers, the feel-good story of college football last season, is trying to prove it was no fluke last year under Greg Schiano, who is turning into one of the better coaches in college football. Ray Rice is having a spectacular start with 431 yards in 3 games and 8 touchdowns, while incredibly Mike Teel is leading the country in QB rating. The middle of their schedule will show us if this team is for real or if they are just pretending to be a good team as they play Cincinnati, South Florida, and West Virginia all at home in a 19 day period. They finish at Louisville, who could play spoiler. Previously mentioned West Virginia is one of the premier teams in the country. Pat White and Steve Slaton make them one of the best offenses in the nation, and possibly the best QB-RB tandem in college football. Unfortunately, they have to play at South Florida, Rutgers, and Cincinnati, which makes their quest for a BCS crown much tougher. Speaking of those Bulls, how about South Florida? Matt Grothe is causing quite a stir down there, and he has lifted this team to a whole different level. They get a tough test tonight as the Mountaineers of West Virginia come to town, but it should be an exciting game. They have already won at Auburn, so they are battle-tested, but West Virginia is a whole different animal. If they can pull off the upset for the 2nd straight year, they will have a chance at winning this conference. The last team that nobody is talking about is Cincinnati, who has started 4-0, winning by an average of 37.5 points per game. They should crush San Diego State before traveling to new Brunswick for a game against Rutgers. They can play, and have a chance to get to a large bowl game, but probably not the BCS.

Prediction: I can't pick Rutgers. I really can't. I think all Big East teams are overrated, and Rutgers is no different. West Virginia will beat them again, like they did last year, although I think they will drop one somewhere along the line (tonight at South Florida?) to keep them out of the BCS championship game.

Big Ten
What a strange year for the Big Ten. Michigan comes in with high expectations, only to drop to Appalachian State at home and then get destroyed by Oregon the next week. Then Mike Hart made the easiest prediction of the year when he said they would beat Notre Dame, then they just had to ruin my year by beating Penn State to get back into the Big Ten picture. Unfortunately for those of us in Happy Valley, they don't get really tested again until the end of the year, when they play Wisconsin and Ohio State back-to-back. Oh yeah, what's the deal with Wisconsin? Quite possibly the 4-0 team people have the least amount of confidence in, the Badgers have kept all of their games closer than they should have been. I'm just waiting for them to lose at this point, because it is bound to happen. It looks like they have sorely missed former QB John Stocco severely, because this team just isn't the same as last year's squad. Ohio State is back to their usual tricks, ranked #8 in the country and making people in Columbus forget about Troy Smith, Ted Ginn, Jr., Anthony Gonzalez, and Antonio Pittman. OK maybe not that much, but you get the point. Todd Boeckman has been solid, if not unspectacular, in leading the Buckeyes to 4-0, including a good win at Washington. Expect them to cruise into Happy Valley with a perfect record for a night game at Penn State. My, oh my, what have my Nittany Lions done? After beating down their first three opponents, they failed to show up for Michigan. Costly turnovers, an offense that might as well have not gotten off the bus, and play-calling that looked fit for the 1930s doomed them in the Big House, and now it's time to go back to the drawing board. There have been lots of calls for the playbook to be opened up, which could only help these guys. Anthony Morelli is coming under a lot of unfair scrutiny for his play, as he has completed about 60% of his passes for 8 touchdowns and only 1 interception, but a paltry 6.75 yards per attempt is incredibly low. Derrick Williams, who was brought in to provide a downfield threat is only averaging 6.2 yards per catch, as they are simply not stretching the field like they should. Austin Scott and Rodney Kinlaw are having an interesting battle at RB, although Scott has made his case to be taken out altogether, which is unfortunate. Dan Connor and Justin King have been their usual selves, shutting teams down, but they have to get help from the offense at some point.

Prediction: Expect Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State to all be in it until the end. I'm going to stick with my boys and say that the wide receivers will have an effect on the play calling and get the deep balls they want. They get Ohio State and Wisconsin at home, and I expect them to win both, along with Michigan dropping a game or two somewhere along the line with that porous defense. Penn State will fulfill my hopes and win another Big Ten title to go to the Rose Bowl.

Pac-10
What once was a conference that was known as USC and "everybody else" has become more of a competition this year. As we have seen so far this season, California and Oregon are teams to be reckoned with, while UCLA is no pushover either. This Saturday, Cal and Oregon go out it in Eugene in a battle of two ranked teams. The winner of this contest has the best chance of competing with USC for the conference title, which has a whole different story. These teams have two of the top QBs in the country in Nate Longshore for the Bears and Dennis Dixon for the Ducks. Expect them to lock horns in a great offensive battle. What this game may come down to is the running game. Oregon not only has Dixon scrambling for 442 yards and 2 TDs, but also the leading rusher in the conference in Jonathan Stewart (503 rushing yards, 4 TDs). However, Cal has the second leading rusher in the conference, Justin Forsett. The senior has 484 yards and 7 touchdowns so far this season, adding another dimension to the Bears offense. Don't forget about the exciting punt returner/wide receiver DeSean Jackson, who has lit up the field this year with his 77 yard return against Tennessee. Don't forget he can still catch the ball, snaggin 59 balls for 1060 yards last year. The Trojans are at it once again, however, with John David Booty leading a talented offense with 639 passing yards and 9 touchdowns so far this year. However, the running backs are no slouches either. They have nine 5-star recruits at running back, and that group racked up 313 rushing yards at Nebraska. This group has combined for 724 yards and 9 touchdowns rushing, and you can bet that will continue throughout the season. The defense may be the best part about USC though. They could arguably have an All-American at every position, and they want to prove they are as good as LSU's vaunted defense is. They are, and will prove it to the rest of the country soon enough.

Prediction: This one was fairly simple. USC is the best team in the country, nevermind the conference. Cal, Oregon, and UCLA are all just playing for second place, but I think Cal will take 2nd when they win at Oregon this weekend. Look for USC to play in the national title game, and I think they will win it all.

SEC
America's favorite conference is deep once again, with talented teams such as Tennessee and Arkansas, ranked before the season started, looking up in their divisions. Each one has a top-5 team, and each one has excellent teams top to bottom.
East Division: Florida tops this division, and the defending national champions don't plan on giving that up anytime soon. Tim Tebow has played well so far this year, and has lead the Gators to a 4-0 record, including a huge win over Tennessee. However, there is an upstart team in Kentucky that is looking to spoil the Gators party. Heisman hopeful Andre Woodson is looking to give the Wildcats a stunning SEC title, and he has Lexington believing. Georgia, Tennessee, and South Carolina all have a different idea, and they would like to show their talents can get to the top.
West Division: LSU is not only competing for an SEC title, but they are trying to win a national title this year. The defense is playing as stout as ever, and should be one of the top ranked units at season's end. Les Miles has them excited again and you can bet they will be in every game they play, and will come out on top in almost all of them. I still don't buy in to Alabama, who got some favorable calls at the end of the game against Arkansas and still nearly blew it. Next year, however, they should be one of the better teams in the nation. Look for Darren McFaddon to stay in the running for the Heisman all year, because he is probably the best back in the country.

Prediction: LSU is way too good to lose to anybody in the West, and Florida will show that they can re-load with the best of them. However, expect Matt Flynn to lead the Tigers to the SEC Championship game and beyond, where they will play USC in the national title game.

College Football Week 3 Wrap-Up

After the third week of college football, we will finally see teams in conference play instead of beating up (or trying to at least) on cream puff teams at home. What can we conclude from these first three weeks? What can we look forward to seeing in the next few months? Who is for real and who is in trouble? We'll cover it all here as we get a look at the college football landscape.

Who's really number 1?
There has certainly been a lot of debate over who is the #1 team in the nation over the past few weeks, although USC has continued to hold down that spot in the polls. LSU has made a case to be ranked #1, and Oklahoma and Florida are making bids to be there as well. If I were to rank them, I would have it in the following order: USC, LSU, Oklahoma, Florida. The top 3 are clearly the three best teams in the nation, but Florida isn't far behind.

For everything that people have bbeen saying about LSU being better than USC, just remember that USC went to a tough place to play in Nebraska that was hyped for an upset, and then went on to completely destroy them, at one point going up 49-17 with 6:45 left. There is a reason they are #1 and it's not just because they have 10 running backs who were 5-star recruits out of high school. They can score when they want, and they have one of the best defenses in the nation.

LSU has been dominant as well, winning by an average margin of 43 points per game, including beating Virginia Tech by 41. However, Virginia Tech is slightly overrated, but that victory is still huge. I don't think they are quite as good as USC, but they are certainly a very good team.

Oklahoma may be the most dominant of the bunch. They have averaged an astounding 61 points per game, and one of those games was against Miami. I know Miami isn't as good as they have been in previous years, but putting 51 points on that defense is incredible. Their QB Sam Bradford may be a freshman, but anyone with a QB rating of 219.51 is a good one. RB DeMarco Murray is also a freshman, but anyone averaging 7 yards per carry is also very, very good. Look for this offense to keep it up throughout the season.

Defending national champions Florida have looked impressive so far this season, but I doubt they will be able to get through this season unscathed. They have games at LSU, at Kentucky, and at Georgia in consecutive games in October, then go to South Carolina to play former coach Steve Spurrier on November 10th. They will probably lose at least one of those games, which will knock them from the top of the rankings.

Disappointments
There have been quite a few disappointments so far this college football season, but it's safe to say that there are four that have disappointed more than the others. The biggest one of all is obvious, and that's Michigan. Losing to a Division I-AA team at home was embarrassing, and losing in the fashion they did was even worse. I don't care if Appalachian State has won the previous two I-AA championships; no Michigan team should ever lose to a I-AA team. Coming off of that must be tough, but when you still have a season to play, you cannot come out and lay down against Oregon like they did. They got a consolation victory on Saturday against our next disappointment, Notre Dame, bubt the road doesn't get easier this week against a very good Penn State team.

Speaking of those boys from South Bend, what happened to that vaunted offense? They were ranked #29 in the preseason USA Today poll, but what we have seen might be the worst offense in Division I-A football. How about this for statistics: 0 offensive touchdowns, 345 total yards, -14 rushing yards, 23 sacks allowed in three games. Yup. 115 yards of total offense per game and the QBs are getting sacked about 8 times per game. I know I wouldn't want to be Jimmy Clausen right now, and Charlie Weis has to figure something out to get this team going in the right direction. I'm not talking about victories. I'm talking about moving the ball and maybe getting into the end zone at some point. They might go 0-8 in their first 8 games. The next 5 games: home vs. Michigan State, at Purdue, at UCLA, home vs. Boston College, and home vs. USC. Good luck. I give them a maximum of 2 victories in that span before finishing off the year with Navy, Army, Duke, and Stanford.

A disappointing team that nobody is talking about is Tennessee. They had a much-hyped opener at Cal, but dropped the ball in losing 45-31. This Saturday, they got absolutely destroyed by Florida, giving up 59 points and losing by 39, which is certainly far from what people had in mind. They are simply an overrated football team who can't compete with the top teams in the nation. Erik Ainge is a good quarterback, but he doesn't seem to have the players around him to get them very far.

Surprises
Nothing has been more surprising this year than the Appalachian State upset over Michigan. Talk about a stunning result in the first weekend of college football. It was the first time in history that a I-AA team had beaten a top-5 football team. Nevermind the fact that it was at the Big House. They ruined Michigan's national title hopes and set them up for a bruising against Oregon the next week. Make no mistake, that loss to App. State was on Michigan's minds the week preparing for Oregon, and it showed that Saturday. Seeing that loss live underneath Beaver Stadium with a few thousand Penn State fans was an experience I won't forget, and it's a game that will be remembered for years to come.

Nick Saban is working his magic in the college game once again. This time he has turned around Alabama and those teams in the SEC are once again looking out for the Crimson Tide. What surprises me the most is their current ranking. After being unranked and squeaking out a victory against Arkansas (after being helped by the referees on that final drive) they jumped all the way up to #16 in the AP poll. I know it was an emotional victory and they beat a good team in Arkansas, but they are certainly not the 16th best team in college football. Kentucky, who beat a better team in Louisville on the same weekend, only got to #21. Seems like there is an SEC bias in the rankings, but who am I to question the pollsters?

Another SEC surprise has certainly been South Carolina. Unranked to start the season, they have jumped up to #12 in the polls after winning at Georgia, and the Old Ball Coach seems to have this team going in the right direction. I don't think they are really #12, but we can let that be for now. They can prove that they are truly a top team this weekend as they travel to #2 LSU in an early-season marquee SEC showdown. They will still have Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Clemson, Florida, and Arkansas still on the schedule, but for now they have a lot to worry about with LSU.

I bet you didn't think I was going to talk about these guys: how about the Missouri Tigers? They have snuck into the polls at #25 this week after beating Illinois and Ole Miss away, then handling Western Michigan at home. The next two weeks will tell us if they are for real, as they invite Nebraska to town after they got blown out by USC. This game could go a long way towards determining who wins the Big 12 North, so Nebraska better get their act together if they want to beat this squad. Oklahoma comes next on Missouri's schedule, and an upset win in Norman would vault them to the top of the Big 12. They don't play Texas this year, so these are the toughest 2 weeks on the schedule. Look out for them as the season progresses.

Coming next time, we'll go over the major conferences and who you should expect to win and compete in each one.

The Rest of the NFL

Sorry to everyone out there who has been waiting for the rest of my NFL predictions, although I think that number is close to zero. School's a killer of free time, so it's been tough to get around to doing this. But, I finally give you the rest of my predictions for the 2007 NFL season, with a very brief description about each division instead of each team, just to save time and space.

NFC WEST

St. Louis (11-5)
San Francisco (9-7)
Seattle (7-9)
Arizona (6-10)

Probably the toughest division to predict only because these teams are either a year away from serious contention or on the decline from their best years. The 49ers and Cardinals are a few pieces away from making serious noise in the NFC, while Seattle's window of opportunity passed when they let Steve Hutchinson leave for Minnesota before last year. That leaves St. Louis and their potent offense. With Steven Jackson a year older and Marc Bulger throwing the ball all over the park to Torry Holt, expect them to put up lots of points and win a lot of football games. Next year, though, look for San Fran and Arizona to be at the top of this division, and Seattle will continue to fall unless they can conjure up the success they had a few years ago.


AFC EAST

New England (13-3)
New York Jets (10-6)
Buffalo (6-10)
Miami (5-11)

Well, with the Patriots spying on people, I guess I should have them at 16-0, but I'm going to stay conservative and say 13-3. Clearly the best team in the division, they are Super Bowl favorites. While the Jets are going to prove last year was no joke, we saw on Sunday that they are nowhere near New England's caliber. The Jets will compete for the playoffs, no matter who is behind center. Buffalo has the exciting Marshawn Lynch in the backfield, and J.P. Losman is becoming a very good quarterback, but he only has Lee Evans to throw to. Miami is kind of like a lost hope. They have the aging Trent Green at QB, and you just don't get the feeling that this team is going to do much this year. Watch for the Pats and Jets to be in the AFC playoffs and for New England to compete for the Super Bowl, cameras not included.

AFC NORTH

Cincinnati (12-4)
Baltimore (10-6)
Pittsburgh (8-8)
Cleveland (4-12)

Long live Ocho Cinco!! I love this guy. He talks the talk and then walks the walk. He has led the league in receiving yards for the past four years, and you can expect that continue this year with Carson Palmer still at the helm. While it will hurt that Chris Henry is suspended for the first 8 games of this year, you can bet that Cincy will still put up points and win games. Baltimore proved the other night they can hang with the Bengals, but with Steve McNair looking shaky in the first game, they look vulnerable on offense again. The Steelers will look to get into the playoffs, but I'm still not sold on Big Ben and the offense outside of Willie Parker. Cleveland is pretty much losing all the time, so 12 losses is probably pretty close to correct, although you can expect Brady Quinn to be starting sooner rather than later, and the future looks bright in the Dawg Pound.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis (12-4)
Tennessee (9-7)
Jacksonville (8-8)
Houston (6-10)

The defending Super Bowl champs will win their 5th consecutive AFC South championship, but watch out for Vince Young and the Titans in the future. I admit that I didn't like VY when he was at Texas, and I thought he was incredibly overrated and a product of playing in the weak Big 12, but consider me a believer now. This team is my sleeper pick for the AFC playoffs, not that I think they are quite there yet, but I think they will make some noise. He lead them to a 6-1 record down the stretch last year, going 3-1 against playoff teams, and beat another team in the Jaguars that were in the playoff hunt until the end. He may not have it all just yet, as witnessed by his 66.7 passer rating last year, but he finds ways to win ball games, and that's what counts. The Jags are turning a new page with the departure of Byron Leftwich, which means David Garrard will have to step up and have a huge season in order to justify his starting position. I'm not so sure he can do it, so expect them to struggle and hover around .500. Houston begins the Matt Schaub era with new hopes and the same problems on the offensive line. Until they figure out that you have to build a team from the bottom up, they will be stuck with high draft picks.

AFC WEST

San Diego (11-5)
Denver (10-6)
Kansas City (5-11)
Oakland (3-13)

The Chargers should win this weak division, as Kansas City and Oakland are just plain terrible. While I think firing Marty Schottenheimer was a mistake, they still have the talent to win a lot of football games. They won't be as good as last year, but anytime you have LDT (I can't call him LT, there is only one LT) you have a chance of winning every game. Just ask the guys in my fantasy football league. Denver begins year 2 of the Jay Cutler project, and he should improve from last year, which bodes well for those in Denver who were crushed after they blew their chance at the playoffs last year. Management of KC- what were you thinking trading Trent Green? He has been one of the best QBs in the league the past few years, and outside of my boy LJ, has been by far the best player on the team. Instead you go with Damon Huard? And all you got for Green was a 5th round pick? Seriously? Stunning. Tamba Hali should have another stellar season at DE, as he got 8 sacks in his rookie campaign, representing that Penn State defense of 2005. Oakland seems to be destined for failure again, but the good news is they finally signed JaMarcus Russell, but the bad news is they decided to start Josh McCown over Daunte Culpepper this season. Culpepper vastly outperformed McCown in preseason, and has had a much better career than McCown, but they went with McCown instead. Not sure about that one. They could use a running back and an offensive line and better receivers, but look for Ronald Curry to have a breakout year and for Culpepper to be starting and kick-starting that slumbering offense.