The Mets Epic Collapse: What Happened and Where to Go from Here

Unless you have been living under some kind of monumental rock for the past 3 weeks, you know that my beloved New York Mets pulled off one of the biggest choke jobs in baseball history. I don't think it's as bad as, say, the 1964 Phillies (6.5 games up with 12 to go) or the 2004 Yankees (do I really need to explain what happened here?), but nonetheless, it was a ridiculous collapse. Mets fans had their hearts broken and were left in utter shock that the pre-season NL favorites let it all slip away in a matter of 17 games. Well, ladies and gentlemen, you really shouldn't be as surprised as you may be. The fact is, this organization was supposed to win in 2006. That was their year. The golden opportunity vanished as Carlos Beltran took a wicked backdoor curveball to end Game 7 of last year's NLCS. This team was flawed like last year's squad, except it was a year older when it didn't want to be, and it had new, young players in positions you don't want them in. This team was not as good as the 2006 version, although we wanted to think they were. Why? Let's take a look as to why they lost.

Age
The 2006 Mets were anchored by savvy veterans who were still playing well, mixed with incredibly talented younger players who produced at a high level. The 2007 Mets had many of the same veterans tail off, and added older players to an already aging lineup. 2006 featured Paul LoDuca (age: 34) playing magnificently behind the plate, leading the team with a .318 average, Carlos Delgado (34) who clubbed 38 home runs and 114 RBI, surprising Jose Valentin (36) who played a smooth 2nd base and hit .271 in the 8 hole with 18 home runs, and the oft-injured but much-loved Cliff Floyd in left (33). Combine that with the other starters at mid-season: Jose Reyes and David Wright (both 23), Carlos Beltran (29), and Xavier Nady (surprisingly 27), and you had a nice balance of youth and veteran players. However, Nady was gone at the trading deadline in an effort to replace Duaner Sanchez out of the bullpen (the same deal that got us Oliver Perez), and he was replaced with the aging and unproductive Shawn Green later in the year (33).

Coming into this season, age was a question, and the front office answered by keeping Green and signing Moises Alou (41) to patrol the corner outfield positions. Having a slow 34 year old and an aging 41 year old in your corner outfielders wasn't a good idea from the start defensively, and Alou's history of injuries came up once again this season to bite the Mets for a few months. Not to say that Alou was a bad player (I'll take his .341 average anyday), but as a trend, the older players didn't do the same job they did last year. While they counseled the younger guys on the finer points of hitting last year, they simply did not produce this year. LoDuca was a huge disappointment in his contract year, hitting just .272. Delgado was probably even worse, although it's debatable, finishing with a career-worst .258 average, saw his home runs decline to 24, and his RBI plummet to 87. He continuously grounded into the shift and popped out to second base in an effort to hit more home runs, but it wasn't working. You can't help but think he is finished, but he is signed through next season. Valentin was the feel-good story of 2006 for the Mets, but his age caught up with him as he had two big injuries, the second of which could end his career. He played in only 51 games this year and only hit .241 when he did play. Meanwhile, Shawn Green bookended his season well, hitting .355 in April and .407 in August, but didn't do much else in the larger chunk of the season.

Age on the pitching staff was also a big question coming into the season, and it had a resounding effect on the end. Coming into the season, Pedro Martinez (35) was on the shelf with his shoulder injury, Orlando 'El Duque" Hernandez (41?/45?/who knows?) was the second starter, and Tom Glavine (41) was the "ace." With those two tired arms and not knowing what you would get from Pedro if/when he came back, there was reason to be nervous. The back end of the rotation had John Maine (26), Oliver Perez (26), and Mike Pelfrey (23) penciled in as starters, all young arms who had a lot to prove. Coming into 2007, Maine had never started more than 16 games and thrown 133 2/3 innings for his career. He was expected to throw near 200 innings this year, and it's not easy to make a jump from 90 innings in 2006 to 200 in one season. As we saw, his arm got tired after the All-Star break and that can be attributed to the new work load. Perez was coming off of an atrocious 2006 in which he went 3-13 with an ERA over 6.00, however, he pitched well under pressure in Game 7, so there was reason for optimism. Both he and Maine pitched well, each notching 15 wins and having an ERA under 4.00, which is good for your #3 and #4 starters coming into the season. Pelfrey, on the other hand, never seemed to get his feet underneath him and had a rough season. The expectations of having him win 15 games and become a Rookie of the Year candidate were probably outlandish, but he certainly should have done better than 3-8. The mix of the pitching staff and their ages was not one that was built for long-term success, and that showed. The older arms broke down and the younger arms were not used to the long season, but you can expect that those young arms get even better next season with more innings and another season under their belts.

Consistency
Probably the biggest reason that the 2007 Mets did not win the division was their incredible lack of consistency throughout the season. David Wright was arguably the most consistent player on the team, except maybe Guillermo Mota, although he was consistently horrific. Wright, after a slow start (hitting only .244 with 0 HR and 6 RBI in April) he started playing like the David Wright we came to know. He hit 30 homers and drove in 101 RBI from May through September, and had 34 stolen bases on the year, including 31 from May through September. Shy of that, this team was incredibly inconsistent, and never took the division by the horns. Jose Reyes had a great first half, looking like a possible MVP candidate, but fell off the face of the earth during the second half. He hit .317 through June, yet after that, he only hit .248, almost a full 40 points below his first half production. Reyes' OBP was only .279 in September, and you can bet that helped the Mets blow their lead.

We can go on and on about individual players being inconsistent during the season, but we have to look at the whole team. This is the biggest reason I'm not surprised they blew a 7 game lead with 17 to go. This is why I look back and say to myself "I actually CAN believe they blew it, because they were doing it the entire year." Let's take a look at how this team did throughout the year.

The first four games of the year resembled the Mets of 2006, going 4-0 and winning by a combined score of 31-3. However, the rest of the month of April, they went a combined 11-9, including dropping 4 of 6 to the arch rival Braves. That was the first red flag to Mets fans that maybe this team wasn't the same as last year's. After dropping the first game of May, however, they went on an absolute tear, going 19-8 to finish the month, ending at 34-18 with the signs pointing to them running away with the division. At that time, they extended their lead to 4-1/2 over the Braves and an astonishing 8-1/2 over the Phillies. Yet, after that game, starting in June, the Mets went 4-14 to fall to 38-32. That included 6 consecutive series losses, including a sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Fittingly, they went 8-1 in their next 9, just to follow that up with a 3-6 finish to the first half. At that point, they were 48-39 and had a 2-1/2 game lead over the Braves and a 4-1/2 game lead over Philadelphia. At this point, Mets fans KNEW that this team was not as strong, and that it wasn't a stronger division keeping the Mets from having a larger lead, but instead it was the fact that the Mets couldn't take the division and run with it.

Coming out of the break, the Mets played pretty well, starting 15-9 before dropping 4 of 6 to the Braves and Marlins. However, with a 6 game lead in the division even with the inconsistent play, the Mets entered a 4-game series with the Phillies in late August with a chance to bury the division right there. They dropped those 4 games and entered a crucial series in Atlanta with only a 2 game lead. They won 10 of their next 12 to get a firm grasp on the division once again, and this is when the Mets began their collapse. This is the time they had that 7 game lead. This was the last 17 games. Another series against Philadelphia. The Phillies were 5-7 in their previous 12. The Mets added 5 games to their lead. This was their chance to once again bury the Phillies. And once again, they came off of a hot streak with an equally terrible cold streak. 5-12 to finish the year. Yet, looking back, we shouldn't be surprised. They were up and down all season. Hot streaks followed by cold streaks. Maybe when they lost those 4 against the Phillies we should have seen the whole collapse coming. It was only fitting when you consider the entire season.

Sure, there are probably a whole host of other reasons as to why the Mets blew it (poor management of the bullpen, not getting another starting pitcher and relying on Brian Lawrence down the stretch as a spot starter for Pedro/El Duque, Reyes not producing, Delgado not producing, injuries to Paul LoDuca and Ramon Castro at the same time, Mike DiFelice and Sandy Alomar, Jr. actually playing games, David Newhan being used to pinch hit at any point this season, bullpen pitching at any point in the last month, just to name a few), but you can look at age and most importantly, INCONSISTENCY as to why they lost this division. Even if they made the playoffs, I believe any Mets fan would agree with the thought that the Mets were not a true World Series contender. Where do they go from here? That's a different post to come soon. For now, let's just forget this season happened and hope they pull the right strings and fix this squad for next year.