I have this message for the owners, president, managing members, and GM of the Boston Red Sox organization: please, whatever you do, don't screw up your future like the 1986 Mets did. They are in a similar position as the 1986 Mets were after they won their championship, and even got there in similar ways.
The 86 Mets got talented veterans in the years before their championship, picking up Keith Hernandez from the Cardinals in the summer of 1983, and getting Gary Carter after the 1984 season, similar to how the Red Sox got Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz in 2001 and 2003, respectively. Each set of these veterans were key parts to their team in terms of leadership and production. While Hernandez and Carter weren't the offensive stalwarts that Ortiz and Ramirez are, they provided defense, leadership, and clutch hitting that were vital to the 1986 Mets squad. However, both of those players were gone after the 1989 season. It would be difficult seeing the same thing happen to Ortiz and Ramirez, but of course it was also difficult for New Yorkers to envision the Mets without Carter and Hernandez.
This year's Red Sox featured a soft-spoken, yet valuable third baseman in Mike Lowell who won the World Series MVP in the last year of his contract. Similarly, the Mets had Ray Knight, another World Series MVP who was also in his contract year. Unfortunately, the start of the demise for the Mets franchise in the following years began with the Mets deciding not to bring back Knight. Like Lowell, he had a lengthy career before that season, and he was an invaluable part of that team. Mets fans loved Knight, and Red Sox fans love Lowell. Knight loved the Mets like Lowell loves the Red Sox. Please re-sign him Boston, if only for my own sanity.
The 1986 Mets, like many NL teams, were rich in pitching. They had Dwight Gooden, Ron Darling, Sid Fernandez, Bobby Ojeda, and Rick Aguilera, each winning at least 10 games, and each with ERAs under 4.00. They had two youthful closers in Roger McDowell and Jesse Orosco, who registered 22 and 21 saves, respectfully. The Red Sox have incredible pitching as well, with Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz. They have a dynamic young closer in Jonathan Papelbon who is one of the best in baseball, along with two other studs in the bullpen with Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima. The Red Sox have the opportunity to lose two of their starters in Schilling and Wakefield, and yet improve by putting in Lester and Buchholz, who are each 23 years old and have proven they can pitch at the Major League level. They have the opportunity to dominate AL lineups for years if they manage their rotation properly and avoid injuries and off-field issues like the 1986 Mets ran into with their young guns.
Finally, the Mets had a great blend of youth and experience. They had battle-tested veterans who refused to lose, and had young up-and-coming talent that was supposed to dominate the NL for years. With players like Darryl Strawberry, Wally Backman, Lenny Dykstra, Kevin Mitchell, Howard Johnson, and Kevin Elster all in their early to mid 20s, and none of their starters over the age of 28, the Mets were set up to be the best team for years. They had even more talent in their farm system, and were ready to win and win often. Unfortunately, the Mets top management got rid of Dykstra and Mitchell and failed with their coaching of Elster and Strawberry, ruining their future. They had a chance in 1988 to win it all and most likely should have, but they were upset by the Los Angeles Dodgers and were never able to recover.
The Red Sox have that mix this year. The difference between them and the Yankees right now is that the Red Sox have managed their farm system to near perfection. The Yankees, now without A-Rod, have serious questions now that their veterans are leaving. The Red Sox have young talent at seemingly every position. Provided they don't screw this up, they could be what the 1986 Mets should have been. They can win the AL East for years, dominate the AL, and give Beantown the kind of championship run they haven't seen since the Celtics of the 1950s and 1960s. Look at the 86 Mets, Bosox, and don't screw up possibly the best team for the next decade.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Penn State-Ohio State Preview
Obviously, the top story of the week here in Happy Valley is the upcoming game this weekend. The #1 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes bring their act to Beaver Stadium, where the Nittany Lions have won 19 of their last 20 games, a certain home field advantage. In 2005, the Buckeyes came in as the #6 team in the country, only to lose a close 17-10 contest to the 2005 Big Ten Championship team. With this year's trend of upsets all over the country, people can't help but think of an upset brewing in State College this weekend. Will it happen? We take a look at the match-up and see who has an advantage where.
Quarterback
Ohio State
Sophomore signal caller Todd Boeckman has taken over the reigns this year from Heisman-winning QB Troy Smith last year. So far this season, Boeckman has posted solid numbers (1,546 yards, 18 TDs, 161.3 QB rating), even though they haven't played the toughest of opponents. His numbers don't look so good in his last two Big Ten games at Purdue and against Michigan State, where he went a combined 32-52, 393 yards, 4 TD and 4 INT. He will go up against his first true test this week, as the Penn State secondary is one of the best in the conference.
Penn State
Senior Anthony Morelli is in his second season under center for Penn State, and it has come with much controversy. He has had a solid season (1,739 yards, 13 TDs, 130.4 QB rating), but he has been slammed in Happy Valley for not living up to his ridiculously high expectations. He is coming off a solid performance at Indiana, where he threw for 195 yards, 2 TDs and an INT, but, like Boeckman, he hasn't faced a defense of Ohio State's caliber. He is susceptible to mistakes, and will have to minimize them for Penn State to have a chance.
Advantage: Push. Morelli is prone to turn it over, but Boeckman's inexperience must be a concern to Buckeye fans.
Running Backs
Ohio State
Sophomore Chris Wells has impressed this year, ranking 5th in the conference in rushing yards, and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He is coming into his own after playing second fiddle to Antonio Pittman last year. He will have a stiff test this weekend against the stifling Nittany Lion rush defense, led by All-American candidates Dan Connor and Sean Lee at linebacker. It will be important for Wells to have a good game to alleviate the pressure on Boeckman to have a good game.
Penn State
It's safe to say that after Austin Scott was suspended, Happy Valley breathed a sigh of relief. Costly fumbles were killing the senior, and his departure has led to the arrival of redshirt freshman Evan Royster, who splits carries with senior Rodney Kinlaw. In the three games that these two have been splitting carries, they have amassed 254 yards vs. Iowa, 183 vs. Wisconsin, and 134 vs. Indiana, with each being effective. It is important that they establish themselves as viable threats to keep the Ohio State defense honest.
Advantage: Ohio State. Wells is one of the top rushers in the conference, whereas Kinlaw and Royster have had a little trouble holding onto the ball. They can't afford to turn the ball over against the Buckeyes, so the slight nod goes to Ohio State.
Wide Receivers
Ohio State
This is a young, inexperienced group led by Brian Robiskie, a junior. He is the lone upper classman in this group, which features numerous sophomores and freshmen. Expect Robiskie to be covered by Justin King, a favorite to get All-Big Ten honors this season. It will be important for others such as Brian Hartline to step up their production in order to free up Robiskie.
Penn State
One of the better groups on paper in the Big Ten has started to turn it around in the last couple games. Ever since Deon Butler spoke out about the need to open up the playbook, this group has found itself downfield more often, which is why they were able to pick up so many underneath routes for first downs in their last game against Indiana. The emergence of Terrel Golden as a fourth option to Butler, Derrick Williams, and Jordan Norwood, has given Morelli a huge boost in confidence, and if he can provide a security blanket for Morelli, that would be an indescribable boost for the offense.
Advantage: Penn State. This group has the ability to extend the field and play a time-consuming role as well. If the game is called correctly for them (please Jay Paterno, don't screw this up again), they can make plays and put points on the board.
Tight End
Ohio State
The combination of Jake Ballard and Rory Nicol hasn't provided a significant boost in the passing game, as they have a total of 15 catches for 137 yards and 1 TD between them. Don't expect much to come out of them this weekend as they will be covered by those linebackers from Penn State.
Penn State
Sophomore Andrew Quarless has found his way into Joe Paterno's dog house, but don't underestimate the importance he can have on a game. There is a reason he was named to the John Mackey Award watch list before the season started as one of the nation's best tight ends. At 6'5" 252 pounds, he gives Morelli a big target to hit. Mickey Shuler has come in during his absences and provided a nice option for Morelli. He has played well, and while he may not produce like Quarless can, Nittany Lions fans shouldn't complain if he comes into action.
Advantage: Penn State. The combination of Quarless and Shuler can prove to be game-changing. If Morelli goes to them, he can settle into a groove and open up the deep game to the wideouts.
Offensive Line
Ohio State
Ok I admit I don't know much about this group, but what I do know is that they have given up 9 sacks and have paved the way for 1,588 total rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Whether or not they can handle the Penn State pass rush remains to be seen, but they have played well so far this season, so it's not out of the question to see a good performance out of this group. Penalties could come into play with the noise coming from the student section, as it was a problem in 2005. Three of them are returning starters, and that consistency will help them this time around.
Penn State
This group has come together in the past few weeks, opening holes for the rushing game, which has gotten better as the season has progressed. Morelli has been sacked 16 times, however, which could cause concern. If their play can continue to improve like it has in recent weeks and open up holes for Kinlaw and Royster, it will be a tremendous victory.
Advantage: Penn State. This unit has come together in recent weeks, anchored by one of the best centers in college football in A.Q. Shipley. Expect the crowd noise to disrupt the Buckeyes O-Line early and often on Saturday, as they have never played in anything like Beaver Stadium before.
Defensive Line
Ohio State
This is a solid group which has helped the Buckeyes give up an average of 62.4 rushing yards per game, best in the conference. However, none of them appear in the top 50 in tackles, top 10 in sacks, or top 10 in tackles for loss. Going up against an improving PSU offensive line will mean they must bring their top game to alleviate the pressure on the linebackers, and if they get pushed back from the line of scrimmage, the Lions could have a solid day running the ball.
Penn State
This is a group that has been ravaged by injuries this season, losing Jared Odrick for the season last week, while Abe Koroma has been battling injuries for the past few weeks. However, they do feature Maurice Evans, who has become one of the best pass rushers in the Big Ten. He leads the conference in sacks with 10.5 on the season, and is second in tackles for loss with 18.5. You can expect him to get into the backfield and disrupt running plays before they start, and make Boeckman feel uncomfortable in the pocket with a simple four man rush. Don't forget about the big guys in the middle, Chris Baker (6'2" 305 lbs.) and Phil Taylor (6'4" 337 lbs.) who will command double teams at times, freeing up Evans and Josh Gaines off the edge.
Advantage: Penn State. Having a pass rush without the need to blitz is key, and they have a better chance at doing that than the Buckeyes. Not that the Nittany Lions won't blitz, but having a guy like Evans certainly helps.
Linebackers
Ohio State
This is where both teams excel. For the Buckeyes, James Laurinaitis patrols the middle, and does it as well as anybody in the nation. He ranks 8th in the conference in tackles with 64, and his presence can change game plans. Fellow returning starter Marcus Freeman comes from the weakside position, and that combination has allowed Ohio State to rank at the top of almost every defensive category in the conference. They may not have played anyone, but this group is certainly one of the best.
Penn State
Dan Connor and Sean Lee are two of the best linebackers in the country. Connor, a senior, has been named a semi-finalist for both the Lombardi Award and the Butkus Award for 2007. Also an All-American in 2006 as a junior, Connor is currently 5th in the conference with 76 tackles, 9th in sacks with 5.0, and 7th in tackles for loss with 10.0. As if Connor wasn't enough, Sean Lee has emerged as one of the top linebackers in the conference this year, and he is only a junior. Lee is one spot ahead of Connor in tackles with 79, and his ability to track down running backs from the strongside makes him a possible All-Big Ten selection. While he currently resides in Connor's shadow, Lee should stand out next year and continue the Linebacker U tradition in the spotlight.
Advantage: Penn State. Come on. You really thought I could pick against Linebacker U? Fact is, you can talk about Laurinaitis all you want, but I will take the combination of Connor and Lee over Laurinaitis anyday. Two game changers are better than one.
Secondary
Ohio State
Malcolm Jenkins is the Buckeyes equivalent to Justin King. A shutdown corner who quarterbacks fear, so they just throw the other way. Donald Washington will be looked at often on Saturday, which means he will have to play well. However, like Washington, the two safeties are sophomores, with Anderson Russel and Kurt Coleman manning the back. This group has performed well this season, giving up a conference-best 146.1 passing yards per game. It will be tough for Morelli to be productive through the air, and mistakes are at a premium against this group.
Penn State
Justin King was slightly exposed last week against Indiana, but let's be fair, James Hardy is an absolute freak. He will be tested again this week against Robiskie, who is in the top 16 in the country in receiving yards, yards per reception, and touchdowns. If Penn State is going to stack the box to stop Wells and force Boeckman to beat them, they need King to stop Robiskie from having a big game. Across the way, Lydell Sargeant has been improving every week, and he will likely be matched up against a young wideout from the Buckeyes. Outside of Robiskie, there isn't much to fear here, but Sargeant may be picked on early so the Buckeyes can get a feel for how successful they will be against him. Anthony Scirotto is one of the best safeties in the conference, although he has to step up his game to return to form from last year.
Advantage: Push. Jenkins and King essentially cancel each other out, and like those two, these units seem to be a wash. These two squads are the top two in the conference in pass defense and pass efficiency defense, so you can expect the passing games to be almost non-existent.
Special Teams
Ohio State
The Buckeyes have gotten solid performances from their special teams so far this year, and you can expect the same this weekend. Punter A.J. Trapasso is 3rd in the conference in punting average, while kicker Ryan Pretorious is 3rd in the conference in points for a kicker with 70, 3rd in field goals with 13, and 2nd in field goal percent at 81.2%. A solid kicking game may come into play, and the Buckeyes have someone they can rely on. The Buckeyes don't have a dynamic kick return game, but their punt return man, Brian Hartline, averages a conference-best 15.3 yards per return, and he has already taken one back to the house this season. The sophomore may not be DeSean Jackson, but he has the ability to change a game with a return.
Penn State
Kevin Kelly has overcome the back problems that plagued him in 2006, kicking his way to 2nd in the conference in points for a kicker with 71, 2nd in field goals with 14, and 3rd in field goal percentage at 73.7%. Punter Jeremy Boone has made Penn State fans forget about last year's great punter Jeremy Kapinos, leading the conference in punting average at 44.2 yards per punt. He has been a pleasant surprise this year for the Lions, and the students have taken a liking to him. Penn State has gotten great contributions from their return games, as kick returner A.J. Wallace is 5th in the conference at 27 yards per return. He can give Penn State great field position with every return and has the potential to break away every time and bring one back. On punts, Derrick Williams still has the ability to bring it back like he did against Notre Dame, and he is 3rd in the conference with 13.7 yards per return.
Advantage: Ohio State. Penn State has had a lot of difficulty covering kicks this season, which has led to big returns (see: Illinois game). While they may have an equal return game, their coverage team is shaky at best and that might prove costly.
Prediction
The young Buckeyes are traveling to a stadium that will be more hyped than any other crowd they will face this season. It will be louder than Michigan. It will be crazier than Washington. This is their first true test of the season against a team that is just like they are. You can expect a defensive battle between the two best defenses the conference has to offer. This game will come down to penalties and mistakes, and I think that the young Buckeyes offense will be rattled by the Penn State student section, which is one of the loudest places in the entire country. Beaver Stadium is up there with the Swamp in Florida, Tiger Stadium in LSU, and Autzen Stadium in Oregon as the toughest places in the country to play. As we saw in 2005, a young, first year quarterback has trouble here, as does an offensive line. The PSU defense will get an extra boost with the crowd behind them, and it will lead to a Penn State victory.
Penn State 20
Ohio State 10
Quarterback
Ohio State
Sophomore signal caller Todd Boeckman has taken over the reigns this year from Heisman-winning QB Troy Smith last year. So far this season, Boeckman has posted solid numbers (1,546 yards, 18 TDs, 161.3 QB rating), even though they haven't played the toughest of opponents. His numbers don't look so good in his last two Big Ten games at Purdue and against Michigan State, where he went a combined 32-52, 393 yards, 4 TD and 4 INT. He will go up against his first true test this week, as the Penn State secondary is one of the best in the conference.
Penn State
Senior Anthony Morelli is in his second season under center for Penn State, and it has come with much controversy. He has had a solid season (1,739 yards, 13 TDs, 130.4 QB rating), but he has been slammed in Happy Valley for not living up to his ridiculously high expectations. He is coming off a solid performance at Indiana, where he threw for 195 yards, 2 TDs and an INT, but, like Boeckman, he hasn't faced a defense of Ohio State's caliber. He is susceptible to mistakes, and will have to minimize them for Penn State to have a chance.
Advantage: Push. Morelli is prone to turn it over, but Boeckman's inexperience must be a concern to Buckeye fans.
Running Backs
Ohio State
Sophomore Chris Wells has impressed this year, ranking 5th in the conference in rushing yards, and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry. He is coming into his own after playing second fiddle to Antonio Pittman last year. He will have a stiff test this weekend against the stifling Nittany Lion rush defense, led by All-American candidates Dan Connor and Sean Lee at linebacker. It will be important for Wells to have a good game to alleviate the pressure on Boeckman to have a good game.
Penn State
It's safe to say that after Austin Scott was suspended, Happy Valley breathed a sigh of relief. Costly fumbles were killing the senior, and his departure has led to the arrival of redshirt freshman Evan Royster, who splits carries with senior Rodney Kinlaw. In the three games that these two have been splitting carries, they have amassed 254 yards vs. Iowa, 183 vs. Wisconsin, and 134 vs. Indiana, with each being effective. It is important that they establish themselves as viable threats to keep the Ohio State defense honest.
Advantage: Ohio State. Wells is one of the top rushers in the conference, whereas Kinlaw and Royster have had a little trouble holding onto the ball. They can't afford to turn the ball over against the Buckeyes, so the slight nod goes to Ohio State.
Wide Receivers
Ohio State
This is a young, inexperienced group led by Brian Robiskie, a junior. He is the lone upper classman in this group, which features numerous sophomores and freshmen. Expect Robiskie to be covered by Justin King, a favorite to get All-Big Ten honors this season. It will be important for others such as Brian Hartline to step up their production in order to free up Robiskie.
Penn State
One of the better groups on paper in the Big Ten has started to turn it around in the last couple games. Ever since Deon Butler spoke out about the need to open up the playbook, this group has found itself downfield more often, which is why they were able to pick up so many underneath routes for first downs in their last game against Indiana. The emergence of Terrel Golden as a fourth option to Butler, Derrick Williams, and Jordan Norwood, has given Morelli a huge boost in confidence, and if he can provide a security blanket for Morelli, that would be an indescribable boost for the offense.
Advantage: Penn State. This group has the ability to extend the field and play a time-consuming role as well. If the game is called correctly for them (please Jay Paterno, don't screw this up again), they can make plays and put points on the board.
Tight End
Ohio State
The combination of Jake Ballard and Rory Nicol hasn't provided a significant boost in the passing game, as they have a total of 15 catches for 137 yards and 1 TD between them. Don't expect much to come out of them this weekend as they will be covered by those linebackers from Penn State.
Penn State
Sophomore Andrew Quarless has found his way into Joe Paterno's dog house, but don't underestimate the importance he can have on a game. There is a reason he was named to the John Mackey Award watch list before the season started as one of the nation's best tight ends. At 6'5" 252 pounds, he gives Morelli a big target to hit. Mickey Shuler has come in during his absences and provided a nice option for Morelli. He has played well, and while he may not produce like Quarless can, Nittany Lions fans shouldn't complain if he comes into action.
Advantage: Penn State. The combination of Quarless and Shuler can prove to be game-changing. If Morelli goes to them, he can settle into a groove and open up the deep game to the wideouts.
Offensive Line
Ohio State
Ok I admit I don't know much about this group, but what I do know is that they have given up 9 sacks and have paved the way for 1,588 total rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. Whether or not they can handle the Penn State pass rush remains to be seen, but they have played well so far this season, so it's not out of the question to see a good performance out of this group. Penalties could come into play with the noise coming from the student section, as it was a problem in 2005. Three of them are returning starters, and that consistency will help them this time around.
Penn State
This group has come together in the past few weeks, opening holes for the rushing game, which has gotten better as the season has progressed. Morelli has been sacked 16 times, however, which could cause concern. If their play can continue to improve like it has in recent weeks and open up holes for Kinlaw and Royster, it will be a tremendous victory.
Advantage: Penn State. This unit has come together in recent weeks, anchored by one of the best centers in college football in A.Q. Shipley. Expect the crowd noise to disrupt the Buckeyes O-Line early and often on Saturday, as they have never played in anything like Beaver Stadium before.
Defensive Line
Ohio State
This is a solid group which has helped the Buckeyes give up an average of 62.4 rushing yards per game, best in the conference. However, none of them appear in the top 50 in tackles, top 10 in sacks, or top 10 in tackles for loss. Going up against an improving PSU offensive line will mean they must bring their top game to alleviate the pressure on the linebackers, and if they get pushed back from the line of scrimmage, the Lions could have a solid day running the ball.
Penn State
This is a group that has been ravaged by injuries this season, losing Jared Odrick for the season last week, while Abe Koroma has been battling injuries for the past few weeks. However, they do feature Maurice Evans, who has become one of the best pass rushers in the Big Ten. He leads the conference in sacks with 10.5 on the season, and is second in tackles for loss with 18.5. You can expect him to get into the backfield and disrupt running plays before they start, and make Boeckman feel uncomfortable in the pocket with a simple four man rush. Don't forget about the big guys in the middle, Chris Baker (6'2" 305 lbs.) and Phil Taylor (6'4" 337 lbs.) who will command double teams at times, freeing up Evans and Josh Gaines off the edge.
Advantage: Penn State. Having a pass rush without the need to blitz is key, and they have a better chance at doing that than the Buckeyes. Not that the Nittany Lions won't blitz, but having a guy like Evans certainly helps.
Linebackers
Ohio State
This is where both teams excel. For the Buckeyes, James Laurinaitis patrols the middle, and does it as well as anybody in the nation. He ranks 8th in the conference in tackles with 64, and his presence can change game plans. Fellow returning starter Marcus Freeman comes from the weakside position, and that combination has allowed Ohio State to rank at the top of almost every defensive category in the conference. They may not have played anyone, but this group is certainly one of the best.
Penn State
Dan Connor and Sean Lee are two of the best linebackers in the country. Connor, a senior, has been named a semi-finalist for both the Lombardi Award and the Butkus Award for 2007. Also an All-American in 2006 as a junior, Connor is currently 5th in the conference with 76 tackles, 9th in sacks with 5.0, and 7th in tackles for loss with 10.0. As if Connor wasn't enough, Sean Lee has emerged as one of the top linebackers in the conference this year, and he is only a junior. Lee is one spot ahead of Connor in tackles with 79, and his ability to track down running backs from the strongside makes him a possible All-Big Ten selection. While he currently resides in Connor's shadow, Lee should stand out next year and continue the Linebacker U tradition in the spotlight.
Advantage: Penn State. Come on. You really thought I could pick against Linebacker U? Fact is, you can talk about Laurinaitis all you want, but I will take the combination of Connor and Lee over Laurinaitis anyday. Two game changers are better than one.
Secondary
Ohio State
Malcolm Jenkins is the Buckeyes equivalent to Justin King. A shutdown corner who quarterbacks fear, so they just throw the other way. Donald Washington will be looked at often on Saturday, which means he will have to play well. However, like Washington, the two safeties are sophomores, with Anderson Russel and Kurt Coleman manning the back. This group has performed well this season, giving up a conference-best 146.1 passing yards per game. It will be tough for Morelli to be productive through the air, and mistakes are at a premium against this group.
Penn State
Justin King was slightly exposed last week against Indiana, but let's be fair, James Hardy is an absolute freak. He will be tested again this week against Robiskie, who is in the top 16 in the country in receiving yards, yards per reception, and touchdowns. If Penn State is going to stack the box to stop Wells and force Boeckman to beat them, they need King to stop Robiskie from having a big game. Across the way, Lydell Sargeant has been improving every week, and he will likely be matched up against a young wideout from the Buckeyes. Outside of Robiskie, there isn't much to fear here, but Sargeant may be picked on early so the Buckeyes can get a feel for how successful they will be against him. Anthony Scirotto is one of the best safeties in the conference, although he has to step up his game to return to form from last year.
Advantage: Push. Jenkins and King essentially cancel each other out, and like those two, these units seem to be a wash. These two squads are the top two in the conference in pass defense and pass efficiency defense, so you can expect the passing games to be almost non-existent.
Special Teams
Ohio State
The Buckeyes have gotten solid performances from their special teams so far this year, and you can expect the same this weekend. Punter A.J. Trapasso is 3rd in the conference in punting average, while kicker Ryan Pretorious is 3rd in the conference in points for a kicker with 70, 3rd in field goals with 13, and 2nd in field goal percent at 81.2%. A solid kicking game may come into play, and the Buckeyes have someone they can rely on. The Buckeyes don't have a dynamic kick return game, but their punt return man, Brian Hartline, averages a conference-best 15.3 yards per return, and he has already taken one back to the house this season. The sophomore may not be DeSean Jackson, but he has the ability to change a game with a return.
Penn State
Kevin Kelly has overcome the back problems that plagued him in 2006, kicking his way to 2nd in the conference in points for a kicker with 71, 2nd in field goals with 14, and 3rd in field goal percentage at 73.7%. Punter Jeremy Boone has made Penn State fans forget about last year's great punter Jeremy Kapinos, leading the conference in punting average at 44.2 yards per punt. He has been a pleasant surprise this year for the Lions, and the students have taken a liking to him. Penn State has gotten great contributions from their return games, as kick returner A.J. Wallace is 5th in the conference at 27 yards per return. He can give Penn State great field position with every return and has the potential to break away every time and bring one back. On punts, Derrick Williams still has the ability to bring it back like he did against Notre Dame, and he is 3rd in the conference with 13.7 yards per return.
Advantage: Ohio State. Penn State has had a lot of difficulty covering kicks this season, which has led to big returns (see: Illinois game). While they may have an equal return game, their coverage team is shaky at best and that might prove costly.
Prediction
The young Buckeyes are traveling to a stadium that will be more hyped than any other crowd they will face this season. It will be louder than Michigan. It will be crazier than Washington. This is their first true test of the season against a team that is just like they are. You can expect a defensive battle between the two best defenses the conference has to offer. This game will come down to penalties and mistakes, and I think that the young Buckeyes offense will be rattled by the Penn State student section, which is one of the loudest places in the entire country. Beaver Stadium is up there with the Swamp in Florida, Tiger Stadium in LSU, and Autzen Stadium in Oregon as the toughest places in the country to play. As we saw in 2005, a young, first year quarterback has trouble here, as does an offensive line. The PSU defense will get an extra boost with the crowd behind them, and it will lead to a Penn State victory.
Penn State 20
Ohio State 10
Friday, October 19, 2007
The Torre Story
On Thursday, the Yankees officially ended the Joe Torre era in New York. On Friday, Torre explained his side of the story. My friends from Pennsylvania can't stand the coverage of the Torre Story. My friends from New Jersey and New York can't get enough of it. What those not from New York don't understand is that Joe Torre was more than a manager of a baseball team. He was the manager of the biggest baseball team in the world. He was the face of the most recognizable franchise in all of sports. He was the most important baseball figure in the biggest baseball city on the planet. And whether you like the Yankees or hate them more than your worst personal enemy, you couldn't help but admire Joe Torre. Even the ever-demanding fan base of the New York Yankees wanted the manager who hadn't won them a World Series in 7 years back.
What those non-New Yorkers don't understand is that even the New York Giants play-by-play announcers are talking at length about Joe Torre's firing on WFAN, New York's sports radio station. What they don't hear is that the former mayor of New York City, Rudy Giuliani, said that he would love to have Joe Torre as his Vice Presidential candidate. They don't understand that the second the news broke, everyone in the tri-state area stopped what they were doing to talk about it. My friend who casually follows baseball stopped what he did to call me for confirmation of the news. I received dozens of text messages, phone calls, IMs and e-mails that day asking what I thought about it. If you don't understand why it's such a big deal, you don't understand New York sports.
Say what you will about the fans of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL, the fans of the Montreal Canadiens in hockey, the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA; none of them would garner this kind of coverage over the "firing" of their manager or coach. When something happens to the biggest sports team in the biggest market in America, everything else becomes secondary.
What Joe Torre did for the Yankees was rebuild a franchise that had been in disarray for years. Before he came, there were 13 straight years of not making the playoffs, before making it as a Wild Card in the last year of the Buck Showalter era in 1995. And once he came, they made the playoffs 12 years in a row, with 4 World Series rings and 6 AL pennants, including one of the best teams ever, the 1998 team that won 114 regular season games before cruising to the title. Torre handled the pressure of the New York media better than anyone I have ever seen in my 20 years alive. He handled George Steinbrenner better than anyone before him. In fact, let's recap the managers from the 1977 World Series up to Torre in 1996: Billy Martin, Dick Howser, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin again, Dick Howser again, Gene Michael, Bob Lemon again, Gene Michael again, Clyde King, Billy Martin a third time, Yogi Berra, Billy Martin a fourth time, Lou Piniella, Billy Martin a fifth time, Dallas Green, Bucky Dent, Stump Merril, and finally Buck Showalter. That's 20 managerial moves in 15 years; not exactly a model of consistency.
They say the best way to silence criticism is by winning, and Torre did it better than anyone his first few years. The 1996 team he guided to the World Series was not your typical Yankees team of today. Looking at their lineup didn't exactly make teams squirm. Their typical starting lineup (by position): C Joe Girardi, 1b Tino Martinez, 2b Mariano Duncan, SS Derek Jeter, 3b Wade Boggs, LF Gerald Williams, CF Bernie Williams, RF Paul O'Neill, DH Ruben Sierra. They were 2nd in the AL in batting average, but an astonishing 12th out of 14 in home runs. Imagine if the 2007 Yankees were 12th in the AL in home runs. The world might come to an end. Bench players? Jim Leyritz, Darryl Strawberry, Tim Raines, and Cecil Fielder. The average age of those bench players: 33.5. To say that team was made of All-Stars at every position is a fallacy, and they only had 3 of them: Boggs, Andy Pettite, and closer John Wetteland. The 1998 team had Chad Curtis in left field and Scott Brosius at third base, not exactly household names. The 1999 team had a guy named Hideki Irabu in their starting rotation. And that 2000 championship team used Ricky Ledee in left and Shane Spencer as their DH, and also put Ramiro Mendoza in the starting rotation. Yet, these championship teams only had more than 4 All-Stars once, in 1998 when they had five. These teams weren't made of All-Stars at every position, yet Torre made them into great teams that could beat anyone and everyone.
Team salary for the 1998 squad, the greatest team of the modern era? How about $66.5 million. No individual cracked the $9 million mark for the year. It wasn't even the highest in baseball, but it was close. Based on average salary per player, the 1998 Yankees were at $2.23 million, whereas the highest was the Orioles at $2.76 million, with a total of 4 teams averaging over $2 million per player (the Braves and Rangers were the other two). However, performance declined as the salaries got higher, with the 2005 team averaging over $7 million per, and the next closest was the Red Sox with just over $4 million per. Yet, no matter what the team was made up of, Torre got them to the playoffs. Whether or not they had egos the size of New York City or not didn't matter, because you knew they were going to be playing in October.
Don't hate Joe Torre because he was the manager of the Yankees. He is everything the Yankees organization isn't. He is classy, dignified, respectful, and revered by everyone he encounters. What the Steinbrenners did to Joe Torre is an absolute travesty. It says that they don't care what you did for this organization, because only winning now matters. Bringing stability to a drama-filled team? Irrelevant. Consistently giving your team a chance to win? Doesn't matter if you don't win it all. Managing garbage teams given to you by the ownership? Your fault. Winning 95 games a year with pitching staffs that resemble the Little League teams I played on as a kid? You should have made them Cy Young winners. All 5. In the same year.
And yet, when I heard the news that Torre had declined the offer from the Yankees, I was initially shocked he decided to not return on his own terms. How could he not return to the franchise he helped build? Then I realized what went through his head. Why would you come back to a place where you are disrespected by a select few, and those happen to be your bosses? I thought about it, and simply said to myself, "Way to go, Joe." He got slapped by the organization and instead of slapping back, he took it with respect for the organization. After all, he took everything with respect for all 12 of those years. How else would a man like Joe Torre do it?
What those non-New Yorkers don't understand is that even the New York Giants play-by-play announcers are talking at length about Joe Torre's firing on WFAN, New York's sports radio station. What they don't hear is that the former mayor of New York City, Rudy Giuliani, said that he would love to have Joe Torre as his Vice Presidential candidate. They don't understand that the second the news broke, everyone in the tri-state area stopped what they were doing to talk about it. My friend who casually follows baseball stopped what he did to call me for confirmation of the news. I received dozens of text messages, phone calls, IMs and e-mails that day asking what I thought about it. If you don't understand why it's such a big deal, you don't understand New York sports.
Say what you will about the fans of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFL, the fans of the Montreal Canadiens in hockey, the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA; none of them would garner this kind of coverage over the "firing" of their manager or coach. When something happens to the biggest sports team in the biggest market in America, everything else becomes secondary.
What Joe Torre did for the Yankees was rebuild a franchise that had been in disarray for years. Before he came, there were 13 straight years of not making the playoffs, before making it as a Wild Card in the last year of the Buck Showalter era in 1995. And once he came, they made the playoffs 12 years in a row, with 4 World Series rings and 6 AL pennants, including one of the best teams ever, the 1998 team that won 114 regular season games before cruising to the title. Torre handled the pressure of the New York media better than anyone I have ever seen in my 20 years alive. He handled George Steinbrenner better than anyone before him. In fact, let's recap the managers from the 1977 World Series up to Torre in 1996: Billy Martin, Dick Howser, Bob Lemon, Billy Martin again, Dick Howser again, Gene Michael, Bob Lemon again, Gene Michael again, Clyde King, Billy Martin a third time, Yogi Berra, Billy Martin a fourth time, Lou Piniella, Billy Martin a fifth time, Dallas Green, Bucky Dent, Stump Merril, and finally Buck Showalter. That's 20 managerial moves in 15 years; not exactly a model of consistency.
They say the best way to silence criticism is by winning, and Torre did it better than anyone his first few years. The 1996 team he guided to the World Series was not your typical Yankees team of today. Looking at their lineup didn't exactly make teams squirm. Their typical starting lineup (by position): C Joe Girardi, 1b Tino Martinez, 2b Mariano Duncan, SS Derek Jeter, 3b Wade Boggs, LF Gerald Williams, CF Bernie Williams, RF Paul O'Neill, DH Ruben Sierra. They were 2nd in the AL in batting average, but an astonishing 12th out of 14 in home runs. Imagine if the 2007 Yankees were 12th in the AL in home runs. The world might come to an end. Bench players? Jim Leyritz, Darryl Strawberry, Tim Raines, and Cecil Fielder. The average age of those bench players: 33.5. To say that team was made of All-Stars at every position is a fallacy, and they only had 3 of them: Boggs, Andy Pettite, and closer John Wetteland. The 1998 team had Chad Curtis in left field and Scott Brosius at third base, not exactly household names. The 1999 team had a guy named Hideki Irabu in their starting rotation. And that 2000 championship team used Ricky Ledee in left and Shane Spencer as their DH, and also put Ramiro Mendoza in the starting rotation. Yet, these championship teams only had more than 4 All-Stars once, in 1998 when they had five. These teams weren't made of All-Stars at every position, yet Torre made them into great teams that could beat anyone and everyone.
Team salary for the 1998 squad, the greatest team of the modern era? How about $66.5 million. No individual cracked the $9 million mark for the year. It wasn't even the highest in baseball, but it was close. Based on average salary per player, the 1998 Yankees were at $2.23 million, whereas the highest was the Orioles at $2.76 million, with a total of 4 teams averaging over $2 million per player (the Braves and Rangers were the other two). However, performance declined as the salaries got higher, with the 2005 team averaging over $7 million per, and the next closest was the Red Sox with just over $4 million per. Yet, no matter what the team was made up of, Torre got them to the playoffs. Whether or not they had egos the size of New York City or not didn't matter, because you knew they were going to be playing in October.
Don't hate Joe Torre because he was the manager of the Yankees. He is everything the Yankees organization isn't. He is classy, dignified, respectful, and revered by everyone he encounters. What the Steinbrenners did to Joe Torre is an absolute travesty. It says that they don't care what you did for this organization, because only winning now matters. Bringing stability to a drama-filled team? Irrelevant. Consistently giving your team a chance to win? Doesn't matter if you don't win it all. Managing garbage teams given to you by the ownership? Your fault. Winning 95 games a year with pitching staffs that resemble the Little League teams I played on as a kid? You should have made them Cy Young winners. All 5. In the same year.
And yet, when I heard the news that Torre had declined the offer from the Yankees, I was initially shocked he decided to not return on his own terms. How could he not return to the franchise he helped build? Then I realized what went through his head. Why would you come back to a place where you are disrespected by a select few, and those happen to be your bosses? I thought about it, and simply said to myself, "Way to go, Joe." He got slapped by the organization and instead of slapping back, he took it with respect for the organization. After all, he took everything with respect for all 12 of those years. How else would a man like Joe Torre do it?
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
College Football 2007: Who is for real?
A few weeks ago, I, like many others, tried to predict what was going to happen in the college football season. Looking back at that post, which can be seen here, you can say that I, like many, have been befuddled by what has transpired. While my pick of Boston College in the ACC looks good, you don't really know what to make of them. They have played 6 games against I-A opponents with a combined 16-23 record and a I-AA team in UMass. Their first real test comes next Thursday against the resurgent Virginia Tech Hokies, who have beaten up on everyone since their debacle against LSU to get to 6-1. If BC can get through this game, they have a very real shot of running the table, at least until they face either Virginia or Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. We'll see what they are made of soon enough.
One of the more underrated upsets so far this season was Colorado beating Oklahoma the week that I wrote that above post. If the Sooners did not blow that 4th quarter lead, they would be the easy #1 right now, but that is why this season is unthinkable. As I promised, Missouri is really one of the better teams in the country, dropping only to the Sooners by 10 in Norman. They can't afford to dwell on it too much, however, because they have to take on the explosive Texas Tech Red Raiders. Kansas is undefeated right now, and they won't get seriously tested until the end of the year when Missouri comes to town, so expect the Jayhawks to stay near the top of the rankings for awhile.
Everyone's favorite story of the year is the South Florida Bulls. Now up to #2 in the BCS standings, they have the potential to go undefeated and make a claim for an appearance in the national title game. What I don't understand is how the computers have them ranked #1. People keep talking about how they have played and beaten good teams, but I don't see it that way. They beat an overrated Auburn team in overtime, and beat a West Virginia team that did not have Pat White for the majority of that game, as he got injured late in the first half. Yes, they beat the Mountaineers, but it was a team missing their star QB. Lots of people could beat a team with an unproven sophomore quarterback. What do I say about them? I think they lose this Thursday night at Rutgers, if not losing one of their next two at UConn and at home against Cincinnati. They won't get through all 12 games undefeated, so let's stop thinking they will get to the title game.
My Penn State boys disappointed me greatly the two weeks after that post, dropping close games to Michigan and Illinois, but they have started to come back with the loss of Austin Scott due to his pending rape case. Ohio State has taken over the #1 ranking in the BCS standings, but they have a similar problem to Boston College: they haven't really played anyone of note. Sure, wins at Washington and Purdue were nice, but they are hardly championship-caliber teams. We will see how good this year's Buckeyes really are starting October 27th with a trip to rowdy Beaver Stadium, which could be even louder and more hyped than it was in 2005, when Penn State beat the Buckeyes on their way to an Orange Bowl victory. After that, they play Wisconsin and Illinois at home before finishing up with the big game at Michigan, who has been resurgent. I don't see the Buckeyes making it through those 4 games unscathed, which means a new #1 will be there before the season is over. By the way, I do think the game at Penn State will be good, and not just because I go there. The Nittany Lions have won 19 of their last 20 home games, the lone loss coming to Michigan last year. I'm not explicitly saying OSU will lose but......
I don't think there is a better conference right now than the Pac-10. USC is down at #14 after losing to up-and-coming Stanford (led by Jim Harbaugh) and getting a nail biter from Arizona. Cal had a chance to become #1, but dropped a close game to Oregon State. Oregon is still rolling, their only loss coming on a late touchdown to Cal. UCLA has two embarrassing losses to Utah and Notre Dame, but they are undefeated in conference play, albeit against Stanford, Washington, and Oregon State. They get Cal this week and finish the year with three straight games against Arizona State, Oregon, and USC. Speaking of Arizona State, how about those Sun Devils? They are 7-0, #8 in the BCS rankings, and Rudy Carpenter is conjuring up thoughts of a Pac-10 title. They begin an extremely tough 4 game stretch to finish their regular season with the following schedule: vs. #12 Cal, at #10 Oregon, at UCLA, vs #14 USC, before finishing with a home game vs. Arizona. If they are going to make a claim for the Pac-10, this is the time for them to step up. I don't think they are quite there yet, but Carpenter returns next year to give them a legitimate shot at next year's conference championship.
As usual, the SEC has produced upsets and close games, recently seeing former #1 LSU drop a tough road game to a talented Kentucky squad. You can still argue that Andre Woodson is deserving of the Heisman, and you wouldn't get much of an argument from me. With 1786 yards and 24 touchdowns, he has led the Wildcats to big wins over then #9 Louisville and then #1 LSU. They continue their tough stretch with another home game, this time against Florida, as their quest for the SEC East division championship continues. However, that spot is currently held by South Carolina, #6 in the AP poll, whose only loss came at LSU. That could be a rematch at the end of the year for the SEC championship game, and the Steve Spurrier rebuilding project is coming to fruition for the Gamecocks.
Who is going to reign at the end of the year? Your guess is probably as good as mine, but if I was to predict the conference champions and BCS teams now, it would look like this:
ACC: Boston College. They won't go undefeated, but I am sticking with my pick.
Big 12: Oklahoma. They should run the table from here on out and win the conference championship game.
Big East: West Virginia. I don't think South Florida has the experience or the talent to win out, and West Virginia will take advantage to win it.
Big Ten: Ohio State. I think they drop one of their remaining games in that tough stretch, but they won't lose twice. Michigan will try to sneak back in, but will lose to Ohio State at the end.
Pac-10: Oregon. Difference between them and Cal? They have Arizona State at home. Both get USC at home, both are good. Should be the best race to watch the rest of the season.
SEC: LSU. They will run the table and win the SEC championship game, staying near the top of the rankings.
National Championship: LSU vs. Oklahoma. The three teams in front of them in the BCS rankings will all lose at least once before the season is over, and these two won't. It will be strength vs. strength as LSU's defense will get to go up against one of the best offenses in the country in Oklahoma. You know your offense is good when your 3rd best running back scores 3 touchdowns against a top 15 team.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon. The winners from the Big Ten and Pac-10 traditionally play in this game, and it will stay that way this year. Neither team is quite good enough to make it to the title game, but both are immensely talented and can certainly play exciting football.
Fiesta Bowl: Cal vs. Missouri. An offensive fan's dream in the Fiesta Bowl. Cal has the excitable DeSean Jackson, where Missouri has a relative unknown in Chase Daniel (2073 passing yards, 19 total TDs). Neither team wins their conference, but they should get BCS bids. Missouri should run the table the rest of the way, only losing to Oklahoma again, which is nothing to sneeze at. Cal may trip up once more along the way, but I would rather bet on them than someone else.
Orange Bowl: Boston College vs. West Virginia. The conference winners from the ACC and Big East square off in this Orange Bowl match-up as Heisman hopeful Matt Ryan goes toe to toe with the combination of Pat White and Steve Slaton. Both teams will be deserving of BCS bids and make for a quality game in Miami.
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. South Florida. The Cinderella story won't make it to the title game, but I still think they will make it to a BCS game after having the pressure of the media come off after a loss, which I think comes Thursday at Rutgers. Steve Spurrier will guide his team through a tough schedule to the SEC title game, and because LSU will go to the title game, the second SEC team lands here in the Sugar Bowl.
One of the more underrated upsets so far this season was Colorado beating Oklahoma the week that I wrote that above post. If the Sooners did not blow that 4th quarter lead, they would be the easy #1 right now, but that is why this season is unthinkable. As I promised, Missouri is really one of the better teams in the country, dropping only to the Sooners by 10 in Norman. They can't afford to dwell on it too much, however, because they have to take on the explosive Texas Tech Red Raiders. Kansas is undefeated right now, and they won't get seriously tested until the end of the year when Missouri comes to town, so expect the Jayhawks to stay near the top of the rankings for awhile.
Everyone's favorite story of the year is the South Florida Bulls. Now up to #2 in the BCS standings, they have the potential to go undefeated and make a claim for an appearance in the national title game. What I don't understand is how the computers have them ranked #1. People keep talking about how they have played and beaten good teams, but I don't see it that way. They beat an overrated Auburn team in overtime, and beat a West Virginia team that did not have Pat White for the majority of that game, as he got injured late in the first half. Yes, they beat the Mountaineers, but it was a team missing their star QB. Lots of people could beat a team with an unproven sophomore quarterback. What do I say about them? I think they lose this Thursday night at Rutgers, if not losing one of their next two at UConn and at home against Cincinnati. They won't get through all 12 games undefeated, so let's stop thinking they will get to the title game.
My Penn State boys disappointed me greatly the two weeks after that post, dropping close games to Michigan and Illinois, but they have started to come back with the loss of Austin Scott due to his pending rape case. Ohio State has taken over the #1 ranking in the BCS standings, but they have a similar problem to Boston College: they haven't really played anyone of note. Sure, wins at Washington and Purdue were nice, but they are hardly championship-caliber teams. We will see how good this year's Buckeyes really are starting October 27th with a trip to rowdy Beaver Stadium, which could be even louder and more hyped than it was in 2005, when Penn State beat the Buckeyes on their way to an Orange Bowl victory. After that, they play Wisconsin and Illinois at home before finishing up with the big game at Michigan, who has been resurgent. I don't see the Buckeyes making it through those 4 games unscathed, which means a new #1 will be there before the season is over. By the way, I do think the game at Penn State will be good, and not just because I go there. The Nittany Lions have won 19 of their last 20 home games, the lone loss coming to Michigan last year. I'm not explicitly saying OSU will lose but......
I don't think there is a better conference right now than the Pac-10. USC is down at #14 after losing to up-and-coming Stanford (led by Jim Harbaugh) and getting a nail biter from Arizona. Cal had a chance to become #1, but dropped a close game to Oregon State. Oregon is still rolling, their only loss coming on a late touchdown to Cal. UCLA has two embarrassing losses to Utah and Notre Dame, but they are undefeated in conference play, albeit against Stanford, Washington, and Oregon State. They get Cal this week and finish the year with three straight games against Arizona State, Oregon, and USC. Speaking of Arizona State, how about those Sun Devils? They are 7-0, #8 in the BCS rankings, and Rudy Carpenter is conjuring up thoughts of a Pac-10 title. They begin an extremely tough 4 game stretch to finish their regular season with the following schedule: vs. #12 Cal, at #10 Oregon, at UCLA, vs #14 USC, before finishing with a home game vs. Arizona. If they are going to make a claim for the Pac-10, this is the time for them to step up. I don't think they are quite there yet, but Carpenter returns next year to give them a legitimate shot at next year's conference championship.
As usual, the SEC has produced upsets and close games, recently seeing former #1 LSU drop a tough road game to a talented Kentucky squad. You can still argue that Andre Woodson is deserving of the Heisman, and you wouldn't get much of an argument from me. With 1786 yards and 24 touchdowns, he has led the Wildcats to big wins over then #9 Louisville and then #1 LSU. They continue their tough stretch with another home game, this time against Florida, as their quest for the SEC East division championship continues. However, that spot is currently held by South Carolina, #6 in the AP poll, whose only loss came at LSU. That could be a rematch at the end of the year for the SEC championship game, and the Steve Spurrier rebuilding project is coming to fruition for the Gamecocks.
Who is going to reign at the end of the year? Your guess is probably as good as mine, but if I was to predict the conference champions and BCS teams now, it would look like this:
ACC: Boston College. They won't go undefeated, but I am sticking with my pick.
Big 12: Oklahoma. They should run the table from here on out and win the conference championship game.
Big East: West Virginia. I don't think South Florida has the experience or the talent to win out, and West Virginia will take advantage to win it.
Big Ten: Ohio State. I think they drop one of their remaining games in that tough stretch, but they won't lose twice. Michigan will try to sneak back in, but will lose to Ohio State at the end.
Pac-10: Oregon. Difference between them and Cal? They have Arizona State at home. Both get USC at home, both are good. Should be the best race to watch the rest of the season.
SEC: LSU. They will run the table and win the SEC championship game, staying near the top of the rankings.
National Championship: LSU vs. Oklahoma. The three teams in front of them in the BCS rankings will all lose at least once before the season is over, and these two won't. It will be strength vs. strength as LSU's defense will get to go up against one of the best offenses in the country in Oklahoma. You know your offense is good when your 3rd best running back scores 3 touchdowns against a top 15 team.
Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. Oregon. The winners from the Big Ten and Pac-10 traditionally play in this game, and it will stay that way this year. Neither team is quite good enough to make it to the title game, but both are immensely talented and can certainly play exciting football.
Fiesta Bowl: Cal vs. Missouri. An offensive fan's dream in the Fiesta Bowl. Cal has the excitable DeSean Jackson, where Missouri has a relative unknown in Chase Daniel (2073 passing yards, 19 total TDs). Neither team wins their conference, but they should get BCS bids. Missouri should run the table the rest of the way, only losing to Oklahoma again, which is nothing to sneeze at. Cal may trip up once more along the way, but I would rather bet on them than someone else.
Orange Bowl: Boston College vs. West Virginia. The conference winners from the ACC and Big East square off in this Orange Bowl match-up as Heisman hopeful Matt Ryan goes toe to toe with the combination of Pat White and Steve Slaton. Both teams will be deserving of BCS bids and make for a quality game in Miami.
Sugar Bowl: South Carolina vs. South Florida. The Cinderella story won't make it to the title game, but I still think they will make it to a BCS game after having the pressure of the media come off after a loss, which I think comes Thursday at Rutgers. Steve Spurrier will guide his team through a tough schedule to the SEC title game, and because LSU will go to the title game, the second SEC team lands here in the Sugar Bowl.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
2007 MLB Playoffs Predictions
NL
Divisional Series
Rockies over Phillies in 5
You can say what you want about my bias against Philadelphia, but the fact is, Colorado is absolutely on fire. They won 14 of their last 15 to make the playoffs, and they also won the first game of this series over Cole Hamels, the Phillies ace. Yes, I know I'm taking them AFTER they won Game 1, but there was no way I was picking the Phillies anyway. Hamels is their only pitcher, and have given up more runs than any other playoff team in either league. Hitting may win games, but it's pitching that matters in October. Colorado has more (just barely) and it will get them through the Phils.
Diamondbacks over Cubs in 4
While people are jumping on the Cubs bandwagon, people have forgotten that the Diamondbacks finished the season with the NL's best record at 90-72. The D'Backs have home field advantage, and they have simply dominated at home this season, going 50-31 at Chase Field. Also, they have the most wins in 1-run games with 32 this season. The Cubbies are only 23-22 in such situations, and that won't help against Arizona. The D'Backs have a better bullpen, which brings that 1-run record into play. I don't know about you, but I would take Jose Valverde in the 9th over the ready-to-implode Ryan Dempster any day.
NLCS
Diamondbacks over Rockies in 6
This is where the Rockies fun ride will end. While I love Matt Holliday and Todd Helton, they don't have enough pitching to beat the Diamondbacks. Once again, pitching wins championships, and Arizona has more than Colorado. Eric Byrnes, Orlando Hudson, and Chris Young will produce enough offense to move them past Colorado and back into the World Series for the second time in their history.
AL
Red Sox over Angels in 5
The Angels are too banged up to make it through this series with the Red Sox. Losing Gary Matthews, Jr. is bigger than it seems. He not only provided 18 home runs and 72 RBI, but he also gave them one of the best defensive center fielders in all of baseball. The Red Sox are way too deep in the lineup and in pitching. Josh Beckett had a great year, and that is why he was the only pitcher this year to have 20 wins. Mike Lowell has been an unsung hero in Boston's lineup, leading the team in RBI with 120, a Red Sox record for a 3rd baseman. Don't forget they have Curt Schilling and Dice-K in that rotation as well, and Jonathan Papelbon is as good as it gets in the 9th.
Yankees over Indians in 4
I hate the Yankees more than you do, I can almost guarantee that. But, they are much better than the Cleveland Indians. While the Indians have a great 1-2 punch in C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, the Yankees have too good of a lineup. Did I mention the Yankees went 6-0 vs. the Indians this year? That will continue, even if the Yankees rotation is a little weak.
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Remember when I said the Yankees rotation was a little weak? This is when that Achilles Heel comes up and bites them. That is the difference between these two teams. They each have a stacked lineup (Yankees #1 in the AL in runs scored, Boston #3), but Boston's pitching is far superior. Not only do they have a better rotation (Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka vs. Wang, Pettite, Clemens), but they ranked #1 in the AL in ERA and batting average against, while the Yankees rank 8th and 6th in those respective categories. Plus, Boston's home field advantage should come into play here.
World Series
Red Sox over Diamondbacks in 5
MVP: Josh Beckett
Let's be serious. There is no way the NL can win the World Series. There is really no team there that can compete with the teams from the AL. The Red Sox went 12-6 in interleague play while the Diamondbacks went only 8-7. Not only do the Red Sox have a better lineup, but they have better pitching, and better defense. They have scored more runs, given up less, and committed 25 less errors than the Diamondbacks. Josh Beckett will win his second World Series MVP award (he won it in 2003 when they beat the Yankees, after he pitched a complete game in Game 6 in Yankee Stadium) with 2 wins in the Series (should be games 1 and 5) and will add another award to his impressive 2007 season. Red Sox Nation will once again rejoice with their second World Series title in 4 seasons.
Divisional Series
Rockies over Phillies in 5
You can say what you want about my bias against Philadelphia, but the fact is, Colorado is absolutely on fire. They won 14 of their last 15 to make the playoffs, and they also won the first game of this series over Cole Hamels, the Phillies ace. Yes, I know I'm taking them AFTER they won Game 1, but there was no way I was picking the Phillies anyway. Hamels is their only pitcher, and have given up more runs than any other playoff team in either league. Hitting may win games, but it's pitching that matters in October. Colorado has more (just barely) and it will get them through the Phils.
Diamondbacks over Cubs in 4
While people are jumping on the Cubs bandwagon, people have forgotten that the Diamondbacks finished the season with the NL's best record at 90-72. The D'Backs have home field advantage, and they have simply dominated at home this season, going 50-31 at Chase Field. Also, they have the most wins in 1-run games with 32 this season. The Cubbies are only 23-22 in such situations, and that won't help against Arizona. The D'Backs have a better bullpen, which brings that 1-run record into play. I don't know about you, but I would take Jose Valverde in the 9th over the ready-to-implode Ryan Dempster any day.
NLCS
Diamondbacks over Rockies in 6
This is where the Rockies fun ride will end. While I love Matt Holliday and Todd Helton, they don't have enough pitching to beat the Diamondbacks. Once again, pitching wins championships, and Arizona has more than Colorado. Eric Byrnes, Orlando Hudson, and Chris Young will produce enough offense to move them past Colorado and back into the World Series for the second time in their history.
AL
Red Sox over Angels in 5
The Angels are too banged up to make it through this series with the Red Sox. Losing Gary Matthews, Jr. is bigger than it seems. He not only provided 18 home runs and 72 RBI, but he also gave them one of the best defensive center fielders in all of baseball. The Red Sox are way too deep in the lineup and in pitching. Josh Beckett had a great year, and that is why he was the only pitcher this year to have 20 wins. Mike Lowell has been an unsung hero in Boston's lineup, leading the team in RBI with 120, a Red Sox record for a 3rd baseman. Don't forget they have Curt Schilling and Dice-K in that rotation as well, and Jonathan Papelbon is as good as it gets in the 9th.
Yankees over Indians in 4
I hate the Yankees more than you do, I can almost guarantee that. But, they are much better than the Cleveland Indians. While the Indians have a great 1-2 punch in C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona, the Yankees have too good of a lineup. Did I mention the Yankees went 6-0 vs. the Indians this year? That will continue, even if the Yankees rotation is a little weak.
ALCS
Red Sox over Yankees in 6
Remember when I said the Yankees rotation was a little weak? This is when that Achilles Heel comes up and bites them. That is the difference between these two teams. They each have a stacked lineup (Yankees #1 in the AL in runs scored, Boston #3), but Boston's pitching is far superior. Not only do they have a better rotation (Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka vs. Wang, Pettite, Clemens), but they ranked #1 in the AL in ERA and batting average against, while the Yankees rank 8th and 6th in those respective categories. Plus, Boston's home field advantage should come into play here.
World Series
Red Sox over Diamondbacks in 5
MVP: Josh Beckett
Let's be serious. There is no way the NL can win the World Series. There is really no team there that can compete with the teams from the AL. The Red Sox went 12-6 in interleague play while the Diamondbacks went only 8-7. Not only do the Red Sox have a better lineup, but they have better pitching, and better defense. They have scored more runs, given up less, and committed 25 less errors than the Diamondbacks. Josh Beckett will win his second World Series MVP award (he won it in 2003 when they beat the Yankees, after he pitched a complete game in Game 6 in Yankee Stadium) with 2 wins in the Series (should be games 1 and 5) and will add another award to his impressive 2007 season. Red Sox Nation will once again rejoice with their second World Series title in 4 seasons.
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
The Mets Epic Collapse: What Happened and Where to Go from Here
Unless you have been living under some kind of monumental rock for the past 3 weeks, you know that my beloved New York Mets pulled off one of the biggest choke jobs in baseball history. I don't think it's as bad as, say, the 1964 Phillies (6.5 games up with 12 to go) or the 2004 Yankees (do I really need to explain what happened here?), but nonetheless, it was a ridiculous collapse. Mets fans had their hearts broken and were left in utter shock that the pre-season NL favorites let it all slip away in a matter of 17 games. Well, ladies and gentlemen, you really shouldn't be as surprised as you may be. The fact is, this organization was supposed to win in 2006. That was their year. The golden opportunity vanished as Carlos Beltran took a wicked backdoor curveball to end Game 7 of last year's NLCS. This team was flawed like last year's squad, except it was a year older when it didn't want to be, and it had new, young players in positions you don't want them in. This team was not as good as the 2006 version, although we wanted to think they were. Why? Let's take a look as to why they lost.
Age
The 2006 Mets were anchored by savvy veterans who were still playing well, mixed with incredibly talented younger players who produced at a high level. The 2007 Mets had many of the same veterans tail off, and added older players to an already aging lineup. 2006 featured Paul LoDuca (age: 34) playing magnificently behind the plate, leading the team with a .318 average, Carlos Delgado (34) who clubbed 38 home runs and 114 RBI, surprising Jose Valentin (36) who played a smooth 2nd base and hit .271 in the 8 hole with 18 home runs, and the oft-injured but much-loved Cliff Floyd in left (33). Combine that with the other starters at mid-season: Jose Reyes and David Wright (both 23), Carlos Beltran (29), and Xavier Nady (surprisingly 27), and you had a nice balance of youth and veteran players. However, Nady was gone at the trading deadline in an effort to replace Duaner Sanchez out of the bullpen (the same deal that got us Oliver Perez), and he was replaced with the aging and unproductive Shawn Green later in the year (33).
Coming into this season, age was a question, and the front office answered by keeping Green and signing Moises Alou (41) to patrol the corner outfield positions. Having a slow 34 year old and an aging 41 year old in your corner outfielders wasn't a good idea from the start defensively, and Alou's history of injuries came up once again this season to bite the Mets for a few months. Not to say that Alou was a bad player (I'll take his .341 average anyday), but as a trend, the older players didn't do the same job they did last year. While they counseled the younger guys on the finer points of hitting last year, they simply did not produce this year. LoDuca was a huge disappointment in his contract year, hitting just .272. Delgado was probably even worse, although it's debatable, finishing with a career-worst .258 average, saw his home runs decline to 24, and his RBI plummet to 87. He continuously grounded into the shift and popped out to second base in an effort to hit more home runs, but it wasn't working. You can't help but think he is finished, but he is signed through next season. Valentin was the feel-good story of 2006 for the Mets, but his age caught up with him as he had two big injuries, the second of which could end his career. He played in only 51 games this year and only hit .241 when he did play. Meanwhile, Shawn Green bookended his season well, hitting .355 in April and .407 in August, but didn't do much else in the larger chunk of the season.
Age on the pitching staff was also a big question coming into the season, and it had a resounding effect on the end. Coming into the season, Pedro Martinez (35) was on the shelf with his shoulder injury, Orlando 'El Duque" Hernandez (41?/45?/who knows?) was the second starter, and Tom Glavine (41) was the "ace." With those two tired arms and not knowing what you would get from Pedro if/when he came back, there was reason to be nervous. The back end of the rotation had John Maine (26), Oliver Perez (26), and Mike Pelfrey (23) penciled in as starters, all young arms who had a lot to prove. Coming into 2007, Maine had never started more than 16 games and thrown 133 2/3 innings for his career. He was expected to throw near 200 innings this year, and it's not easy to make a jump from 90 innings in 2006 to 200 in one season. As we saw, his arm got tired after the All-Star break and that can be attributed to the new work load. Perez was coming off of an atrocious 2006 in which he went 3-13 with an ERA over 6.00, however, he pitched well under pressure in Game 7, so there was reason for optimism. Both he and Maine pitched well, each notching 15 wins and having an ERA under 4.00, which is good for your #3 and #4 starters coming into the season. Pelfrey, on the other hand, never seemed to get his feet underneath him and had a rough season. The expectations of having him win 15 games and become a Rookie of the Year candidate were probably outlandish, but he certainly should have done better than 3-8. The mix of the pitching staff and their ages was not one that was built for long-term success, and that showed. The older arms broke down and the younger arms were not used to the long season, but you can expect that those young arms get even better next season with more innings and another season under their belts.
Consistency
Probably the biggest reason that the 2007 Mets did not win the division was their incredible lack of consistency throughout the season. David Wright was arguably the most consistent player on the team, except maybe Guillermo Mota, although he was consistently horrific. Wright, after a slow start (hitting only .244 with 0 HR and 6 RBI in April) he started playing like the David Wright we came to know. He hit 30 homers and drove in 101 RBI from May through September, and had 34 stolen bases on the year, including 31 from May through September. Shy of that, this team was incredibly inconsistent, and never took the division by the horns. Jose Reyes had a great first half, looking like a possible MVP candidate, but fell off the face of the earth during the second half. He hit .317 through June, yet after that, he only hit .248, almost a full 40 points below his first half production. Reyes' OBP was only .279 in September, and you can bet that helped the Mets blow their lead.
We can go on and on about individual players being inconsistent during the season, but we have to look at the whole team. This is the biggest reason I'm not surprised they blew a 7 game lead with 17 to go. This is why I look back and say to myself "I actually CAN believe they blew it, because they were doing it the entire year." Let's take a look at how this team did throughout the year.
The first four games of the year resembled the Mets of 2006, going 4-0 and winning by a combined score of 31-3. However, the rest of the month of April, they went a combined 11-9, including dropping 4 of 6 to the arch rival Braves. That was the first red flag to Mets fans that maybe this team wasn't the same as last year's. After dropping the first game of May, however, they went on an absolute tear, going 19-8 to finish the month, ending at 34-18 with the signs pointing to them running away with the division. At that time, they extended their lead to 4-1/2 over the Braves and an astonishing 8-1/2 over the Phillies. Yet, after that game, starting in June, the Mets went 4-14 to fall to 38-32. That included 6 consecutive series losses, including a sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Fittingly, they went 8-1 in their next 9, just to follow that up with a 3-6 finish to the first half. At that point, they were 48-39 and had a 2-1/2 game lead over the Braves and a 4-1/2 game lead over Philadelphia. At this point, Mets fans KNEW that this team was not as strong, and that it wasn't a stronger division keeping the Mets from having a larger lead, but instead it was the fact that the Mets couldn't take the division and run with it.
Coming out of the break, the Mets played pretty well, starting 15-9 before dropping 4 of 6 to the Braves and Marlins. However, with a 6 game lead in the division even with the inconsistent play, the Mets entered a 4-game series with the Phillies in late August with a chance to bury the division right there. They dropped those 4 games and entered a crucial series in Atlanta with only a 2 game lead. They won 10 of their next 12 to get a firm grasp on the division once again, and this is when the Mets began their collapse. This is the time they had that 7 game lead. This was the last 17 games. Another series against Philadelphia. The Phillies were 5-7 in their previous 12. The Mets added 5 games to their lead. This was their chance to once again bury the Phillies. And once again, they came off of a hot streak with an equally terrible cold streak. 5-12 to finish the year. Yet, looking back, we shouldn't be surprised. They were up and down all season. Hot streaks followed by cold streaks. Maybe when they lost those 4 against the Phillies we should have seen the whole collapse coming. It was only fitting when you consider the entire season.
Sure, there are probably a whole host of other reasons as to why the Mets blew it (poor management of the bullpen, not getting another starting pitcher and relying on Brian Lawrence down the stretch as a spot starter for Pedro/El Duque, Reyes not producing, Delgado not producing, injuries to Paul LoDuca and Ramon Castro at the same time, Mike DiFelice and Sandy Alomar, Jr. actually playing games, David Newhan being used to pinch hit at any point this season, bullpen pitching at any point in the last month, just to name a few), but you can look at age and most importantly, INCONSISTENCY as to why they lost this division. Even if they made the playoffs, I believe any Mets fan would agree with the thought that the Mets were not a true World Series contender. Where do they go from here? That's a different post to come soon. For now, let's just forget this season happened and hope they pull the right strings and fix this squad for next year.
Age
The 2006 Mets were anchored by savvy veterans who were still playing well, mixed with incredibly talented younger players who produced at a high level. The 2007 Mets had many of the same veterans tail off, and added older players to an already aging lineup. 2006 featured Paul LoDuca (age: 34) playing magnificently behind the plate, leading the team with a .318 average, Carlos Delgado (34) who clubbed 38 home runs and 114 RBI, surprising Jose Valentin (36) who played a smooth 2nd base and hit .271 in the 8 hole with 18 home runs, and the oft-injured but much-loved Cliff Floyd in left (33). Combine that with the other starters at mid-season: Jose Reyes and David Wright (both 23), Carlos Beltran (29), and Xavier Nady (surprisingly 27), and you had a nice balance of youth and veteran players. However, Nady was gone at the trading deadline in an effort to replace Duaner Sanchez out of the bullpen (the same deal that got us Oliver Perez), and he was replaced with the aging and unproductive Shawn Green later in the year (33).
Coming into this season, age was a question, and the front office answered by keeping Green and signing Moises Alou (41) to patrol the corner outfield positions. Having a slow 34 year old and an aging 41 year old in your corner outfielders wasn't a good idea from the start defensively, and Alou's history of injuries came up once again this season to bite the Mets for a few months. Not to say that Alou was a bad player (I'll take his .341 average anyday), but as a trend, the older players didn't do the same job they did last year. While they counseled the younger guys on the finer points of hitting last year, they simply did not produce this year. LoDuca was a huge disappointment in his contract year, hitting just .272. Delgado was probably even worse, although it's debatable, finishing with a career-worst .258 average, saw his home runs decline to 24, and his RBI plummet to 87. He continuously grounded into the shift and popped out to second base in an effort to hit more home runs, but it wasn't working. You can't help but think he is finished, but he is signed through next season. Valentin was the feel-good story of 2006 for the Mets, but his age caught up with him as he had two big injuries, the second of which could end his career. He played in only 51 games this year and only hit .241 when he did play. Meanwhile, Shawn Green bookended his season well, hitting .355 in April and .407 in August, but didn't do much else in the larger chunk of the season.
Age on the pitching staff was also a big question coming into the season, and it had a resounding effect on the end. Coming into the season, Pedro Martinez (35) was on the shelf with his shoulder injury, Orlando 'El Duque" Hernandez (41?/45?/who knows?) was the second starter, and Tom Glavine (41) was the "ace." With those two tired arms and not knowing what you would get from Pedro if/when he came back, there was reason to be nervous. The back end of the rotation had John Maine (26), Oliver Perez (26), and Mike Pelfrey (23) penciled in as starters, all young arms who had a lot to prove. Coming into 2007, Maine had never started more than 16 games and thrown 133 2/3 innings for his career. He was expected to throw near 200 innings this year, and it's not easy to make a jump from 90 innings in 2006 to 200 in one season. As we saw, his arm got tired after the All-Star break and that can be attributed to the new work load. Perez was coming off of an atrocious 2006 in which he went 3-13 with an ERA over 6.00, however, he pitched well under pressure in Game 7, so there was reason for optimism. Both he and Maine pitched well, each notching 15 wins and having an ERA under 4.00, which is good for your #3 and #4 starters coming into the season. Pelfrey, on the other hand, never seemed to get his feet underneath him and had a rough season. The expectations of having him win 15 games and become a Rookie of the Year candidate were probably outlandish, but he certainly should have done better than 3-8. The mix of the pitching staff and their ages was not one that was built for long-term success, and that showed. The older arms broke down and the younger arms were not used to the long season, but you can expect that those young arms get even better next season with more innings and another season under their belts.
Consistency
Probably the biggest reason that the 2007 Mets did not win the division was their incredible lack of consistency throughout the season. David Wright was arguably the most consistent player on the team, except maybe Guillermo Mota, although he was consistently horrific. Wright, after a slow start (hitting only .244 with 0 HR and 6 RBI in April) he started playing like the David Wright we came to know. He hit 30 homers and drove in 101 RBI from May through September, and had 34 stolen bases on the year, including 31 from May through September. Shy of that, this team was incredibly inconsistent, and never took the division by the horns. Jose Reyes had a great first half, looking like a possible MVP candidate, but fell off the face of the earth during the second half. He hit .317 through June, yet after that, he only hit .248, almost a full 40 points below his first half production. Reyes' OBP was only .279 in September, and you can bet that helped the Mets blow their lead.
We can go on and on about individual players being inconsistent during the season, but we have to look at the whole team. This is the biggest reason I'm not surprised they blew a 7 game lead with 17 to go. This is why I look back and say to myself "I actually CAN believe they blew it, because they were doing it the entire year." Let's take a look at how this team did throughout the year.
The first four games of the year resembled the Mets of 2006, going 4-0 and winning by a combined score of 31-3. However, the rest of the month of April, they went a combined 11-9, including dropping 4 of 6 to the arch rival Braves. That was the first red flag to Mets fans that maybe this team wasn't the same as last year's. After dropping the first game of May, however, they went on an absolute tear, going 19-8 to finish the month, ending at 34-18 with the signs pointing to them running away with the division. At that time, they extended their lead to 4-1/2 over the Braves and an astonishing 8-1/2 over the Phillies. Yet, after that game, starting in June, the Mets went 4-14 to fall to 38-32. That included 6 consecutive series losses, including a sweep at the hands of the Phillies. Fittingly, they went 8-1 in their next 9, just to follow that up with a 3-6 finish to the first half. At that point, they were 48-39 and had a 2-1/2 game lead over the Braves and a 4-1/2 game lead over Philadelphia. At this point, Mets fans KNEW that this team was not as strong, and that it wasn't a stronger division keeping the Mets from having a larger lead, but instead it was the fact that the Mets couldn't take the division and run with it.
Coming out of the break, the Mets played pretty well, starting 15-9 before dropping 4 of 6 to the Braves and Marlins. However, with a 6 game lead in the division even with the inconsistent play, the Mets entered a 4-game series with the Phillies in late August with a chance to bury the division right there. They dropped those 4 games and entered a crucial series in Atlanta with only a 2 game lead. They won 10 of their next 12 to get a firm grasp on the division once again, and this is when the Mets began their collapse. This is the time they had that 7 game lead. This was the last 17 games. Another series against Philadelphia. The Phillies were 5-7 in their previous 12. The Mets added 5 games to their lead. This was their chance to once again bury the Phillies. And once again, they came off of a hot streak with an equally terrible cold streak. 5-12 to finish the year. Yet, looking back, we shouldn't be surprised. They were up and down all season. Hot streaks followed by cold streaks. Maybe when they lost those 4 against the Phillies we should have seen the whole collapse coming. It was only fitting when you consider the entire season.
Sure, there are probably a whole host of other reasons as to why the Mets blew it (poor management of the bullpen, not getting another starting pitcher and relying on Brian Lawrence down the stretch as a spot starter for Pedro/El Duque, Reyes not producing, Delgado not producing, injuries to Paul LoDuca and Ramon Castro at the same time, Mike DiFelice and Sandy Alomar, Jr. actually playing games, David Newhan being used to pinch hit at any point this season, bullpen pitching at any point in the last month, just to name a few), but you can look at age and most importantly, INCONSISTENCY as to why they lost this division. Even if they made the playoffs, I believe any Mets fan would agree with the thought that the Mets were not a true World Series contender. Where do they go from here? That's a different post to come soon. For now, let's just forget this season happened and hope they pull the right strings and fix this squad for next year.
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