After the third week of college football, we will finally see teams in conference play instead of beating up (or trying to at least) on cream puff teams at home. What can we conclude from these first three weeks? What can we look forward to seeing in the next few months? Who is for real and who is in trouble? We'll cover it all here as we get a look at the college football landscape.
Who's really number 1?
There has certainly been a lot of debate over who is the #1 team in the nation over the past few weeks, although USC has continued to hold down that spot in the polls. LSU has made a case to be ranked #1, and Oklahoma and Florida are making bids to be there as well. If I were to rank them, I would have it in the following order: USC, LSU, Oklahoma, Florida. The top 3 are clearly the three best teams in the nation, but Florida isn't far behind.
For everything that people have bbeen saying about LSU being better than USC, just remember that USC went to a tough place to play in Nebraska that was hyped for an upset, and then went on to completely destroy them, at one point going up 49-17 with 6:45 left. There is a reason they are #1 and it's not just because they have 10 running backs who were 5-star recruits out of high school. They can score when they want, and they have one of the best defenses in the nation.
LSU has been dominant as well, winning by an average margin of 43 points per game, including beating Virginia Tech by 41. However, Virginia Tech is slightly overrated, but that victory is still huge. I don't think they are quite as good as USC, but they are certainly a very good team.
Oklahoma may be the most dominant of the bunch. They have averaged an astounding 61 points per game, and one of those games was against Miami. I know Miami isn't as good as they have been in previous years, but putting 51 points on that defense is incredible. Their QB Sam Bradford may be a freshman, but anyone with a QB rating of 219.51 is a good one. RB DeMarco Murray is also a freshman, but anyone averaging 7 yards per carry is also very, very good. Look for this offense to keep it up throughout the season.
Defending national champions Florida have looked impressive so far this season, but I doubt they will be able to get through this season unscathed. They have games at LSU, at Kentucky, and at Georgia in consecutive games in October, then go to South Carolina to play former coach Steve Spurrier on November 10th. They will probably lose at least one of those games, which will knock them from the top of the rankings.
Disappointments
There have been quite a few disappointments so far this college football season, but it's safe to say that there are four that have disappointed more than the others. The biggest one of all is obvious, and that's Michigan. Losing to a Division I-AA team at home was embarrassing, and losing in the fashion they did was even worse. I don't care if Appalachian State has won the previous two I-AA championships; no Michigan team should ever lose to a I-AA team. Coming off of that must be tough, but when you still have a season to play, you cannot come out and lay down against Oregon like they did. They got a consolation victory on Saturday against our next disappointment, Notre Dame, bubt the road doesn't get easier this week against a very good Penn State team.
Speaking of those boys from South Bend, what happened to that vaunted offense? They were ranked #29 in the preseason USA Today poll, but what we have seen might be the worst offense in Division I-A football. How about this for statistics: 0 offensive touchdowns, 345 total yards, -14 rushing yards, 23 sacks allowed in three games. Yup. 115 yards of total offense per game and the QBs are getting sacked about 8 times per game. I know I wouldn't want to be Jimmy Clausen right now, and Charlie Weis has to figure something out to get this team going in the right direction. I'm not talking about victories. I'm talking about moving the ball and maybe getting into the end zone at some point. They might go 0-8 in their first 8 games. The next 5 games: home vs. Michigan State, at Purdue, at UCLA, home vs. Boston College, and home vs. USC. Good luck. I give them a maximum of 2 victories in that span before finishing off the year with Navy, Army, Duke, and Stanford.
A disappointing team that nobody is talking about is Tennessee. They had a much-hyped opener at Cal, but dropped the ball in losing 45-31. This Saturday, they got absolutely destroyed by Florida, giving up 59 points and losing by 39, which is certainly far from what people had in mind. They are simply an overrated football team who can't compete with the top teams in the nation. Erik Ainge is a good quarterback, but he doesn't seem to have the players around him to get them very far.
Surprises
Nothing has been more surprising this year than the Appalachian State upset over Michigan. Talk about a stunning result in the first weekend of college football. It was the first time in history that a I-AA team had beaten a top-5 football team. Nevermind the fact that it was at the Big House. They ruined Michigan's national title hopes and set them up for a bruising against Oregon the next week. Make no mistake, that loss to App. State was on Michigan's minds the week preparing for Oregon, and it showed that Saturday. Seeing that loss live underneath Beaver Stadium with a few thousand Penn State fans was an experience I won't forget, and it's a game that will be remembered for years to come.
Nick Saban is working his magic in the college game once again. This time he has turned around Alabama and those teams in the SEC are once again looking out for the Crimson Tide. What surprises me the most is their current ranking. After being unranked and squeaking out a victory against Arkansas (after being helped by the referees on that final drive) they jumped all the way up to #16 in the AP poll. I know it was an emotional victory and they beat a good team in Arkansas, but they are certainly not the 16th best team in college football. Kentucky, who beat a better team in Louisville on the same weekend, only got to #21. Seems like there is an SEC bias in the rankings, but who am I to question the pollsters?
Another SEC surprise has certainly been South Carolina. Unranked to start the season, they have jumped up to #12 in the polls after winning at Georgia, and the Old Ball Coach seems to have this team going in the right direction. I don't think they are really #12, but we can let that be for now. They can prove that they are truly a top team this weekend as they travel to #2 LSU in an early-season marquee SEC showdown. They will still have Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Clemson, Florida, and Arkansas still on the schedule, but for now they have a lot to worry about with LSU.
I bet you didn't think I was going to talk about these guys: how about the Missouri Tigers? They have snuck into the polls at #25 this week after beating Illinois and Ole Miss away, then handling Western Michigan at home. The next two weeks will tell us if they are for real, as they invite Nebraska to town after they got blown out by USC. This game could go a long way towards determining who wins the Big 12 North, so Nebraska better get their act together if they want to beat this squad. Oklahoma comes next on Missouri's schedule, and an upset win in Norman would vault them to the top of the Big 12. They don't play Texas this year, so these are the toughest 2 weeks on the schedule. Look out for them as the season progresses.
Coming next time, we'll go over the major conferences and who you should expect to win and compete in each one.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
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