Mets-Braves 2007

Best series in baseball this week? No, it wasn't Washington-San Francisco, or Toronto-New York Yankees, or even Boston-LA Angels (although that would sure give it a run). Instead it was the Mets-Braves series which rightfully stole the spotlight with dramatic home runs and shaky 9th inning leads that weren't safe until the final out. Once again, it seems that the Braves and Mets will be dueling it out until the final week of the regular season to see who will be crowned the NL East champions and earn the right to go to the playoffs, which is no guarantee for the loser with the stiff competition rising in the NL West and the battle atop the NL Central between the Brewers and America's sweethearts, the Cubs.

As has been the case all year, these two teams went toe to toe for 3 thrilling games and played almost to a draw, but of course someone has to come out victorious. Unfortunately, once again it was the Braves, for the 8th time in 12 games this year. Much of the New York media has jumped on the Mets backs for not being able to beat those hated Braves this year, and many are wondering aloud just how good the Mets are and if the Braves are truly better than the Mets. Well, I am here to dispel those rumors and re instill confidence in the fans of Los Mets.

For starters, it's not time to panic because we still have a 3.5 game lead in the division. Even if Atlanta wins 2 out of 3 in each of the next two series, it could still mean nothing if the Mets keep playing the way they are capable and win more than Atlanta outside of those games. Just because we have lost 8 of 12 to the Braves doesn't mean we aren't a good team, considering we can still win the division. I don't know about everyone else, but I will gladly take a division title over just beating the Braves. Also, it's not necessarily true that the Braves are "so much better" than the Mets, which is what a lot of people have been saying on TV and on WFAN, the New York sports radio station. In the 12 games the teams have played against each other so far, the Braves have outscored the Mets by a whole 6 runs. That's 1/2 a run a game. That's nothing. And look at how the games have really gone this year.

First series - April 6-8
1st game: Mets win 11-1. Oliver Perez dominates, Mets offense rips the Atlanta pitching staff.
2nd game: Braves win 5-3. Smoltz kills the Mets again, Glavine once again can't beat his old team, but was victimized by shoddy defense behind him. Delgado's first inning error lead to a run, and a Shawn Green dropped fly ball lead to two more unearned runs. So while Glavine gave up 5 runs and ended up with the loss, he only gave up 2 earned runs, which is certainly good enough for a victory. Naturally, Green came up with the tying runs on base in the 9th and promptly lined out to end the game.
3rd game: Braves win 3-2. Aaron Heilman blew a 2-1 lead in the 8th inning by giving up doubles to Brian McCann and Jeff Franceour, the newest Met-killer in a Brave uniform.
In reality, that first series could have been a Mets sweep, but because of bad defense, untimely hitting, and a poor bullpen appearance by Heilman, it resulted in a series loss.

Second series - April 20-22
1st game: Braves win 7-3. Tim Hudson dominated and Mike Pelfrey, who isn't on the active roster anymore, was roughed up. 'Nuff said.
2nd game: Mets win 7-2. Mets break it open with 5 runs in the 5th and 6th and Ollie gives a strong start to earn his second victory of the year against the Braves.
3rd game: Braves win 9-6. Glavine pitches well and gives a 6-3 lead to the bullpen, only to have Heilman blow another game against the Braves by giving up a 3-run home run in the 7th, and watch Scott Schoeneweis give up another 3-run homer in the 8th inning to lose.
Mets played well enough to win, but another bad bullpen showing results in another series loss which the Mets had a legit chance of winning.

Third series - May 22-24
1st game: Braves win 8-1. Just like the first game of the season, just the other way around. Braves dominate and even Kyle Davies, the Braves pitcher, hits a home run.
2nd game: Mets win 3-0. Ollie once again proves he can pitch in the big games, throwing 7 innings of shutout ball. Remember this game? This is the one in which Delgado was moved to 6th in the order to try and shake him from that slump, which was followed by a monster series in Florida, which everyone thought was the coming out party for him. Also of note, David Wright hit his 4th home run in 4 games in this one, which was his 8th of the season and of May, which got him rolling in the "right" direction for the season.
3rd game: Braves win 2-1. Just like the 1990s, Smoltz dominates the Mets, who stranded the tying run, Carlos Gomez - remember him? - at 3rd in the 9th inning as they once again couldn't push the tying run across late.
Another close series that could have gone either way in the 3rd game, but the Braves once again found a way to win it to steal another series from the boys of Queens.

Fourth series - August 7-9
1st game: Braves win 7-3. Atlanta finally solved the puzzle named Oliver Perez and the Mets simply couldn't continue the comeback after scoring 3 runs between the 4th and 5th innings. Moises Alou grounded into 2 rally-killing double plays to end threats and really set the Mets back.
2nd game: Mets win 4-3. Alou redeems himself for the night before by hitting the game-winning home run in the 8th. El Duque pitched masterfully, except the 6th inning, but had to get off the hook with a clutch Luis Castillo broken-bat bloop single in the 7th inning. Billy the Kid almost blew it in the 9th, but wriggled out of a bases loaded-no out jam with the save.
3rd game: Braves win 7-6. As you know, Maine got tagged for 6 runs, and the Braves built a 7-3 lead going into the 9th. It could have been different though, had it not been for Willy Harris' defense in the first inning, robbing Alou of a certain extra-base hit that would have scored two and put the Mets well in front. After closing to 7-6 on a David Wright home run, Harris once again made an impact by absolutely robbing Carlos Delgado of the game-tying home run (a-la Endy Chavez, but without the playoffs and national spot light, and really not as good a catch, but it kind of reminded me of it) and the Braves escaped with the victory.
Once again, a few things here or there could have shifted this series either way, but that is why they play the game. Mets could have easily taken 2 of 3, and could have swept if Alou didn't kill rallies in the first game with double play grounders. But, alas, we lost again.

Now time to throw some stats at you to prove that the Mets and Braves are pretty evenly matched teams, in case those game synopses didn't do it for you already. As a lineup, the Mets offense has scored 526 runs (6th in the NL) compared to the Braves 565 (3rd); hit 117 home runs (7th) to the Braves 118 (6th); has a batting average of .272 (5th) to the Braves .279 (1st); has struck out 709 times (3rd best) to the Braves 811 (4th worst); have walked 366 times (8th) to the Braves 369 (7th); and have stolen 138 bases (1st by far) to the Braves 56 (11th) (Jose Reyes himself has 54 steals, almost equaling the entire Braves squad).

Yes, the Braves now have Mark Teixiera, who certainly makes their lineup that much better, but when you think about it, the Mets haven't had their full lineup out there since early May, when Alou and Valentin got injured. At that time, the Mets were still scoring, even though Wright and Delgado hadn't come around just yet. When Beltran finally returns, if he can be what he was last year and Alou can stay off the DL, you have a very potent lineup that will be able to go right up with the Braves.

Now on to pitching, the strength of Los Mets. As a team, the Mets staff boasts a 3.88 ERA (2nd in the NL) to the Braves 4.13 (7th); they have thrown 9 shutouts (2nd) to the Braves 5 (6th); the starters have pitched 66 Quality Starts (1st) to the Braves 58 (7th); They have struck out 764 batters (7th) to the Braves 760 (8th); have a Batting Average Against of .242 (1st) to the Braves .262 (7th); have only blown 6 saves (the least) to the Braves 13 (10th); and have given up 116 home runs (6th) to the Braves 109 (11th). Clearly, the Mets have a strong upper hand here, which could be partially due to the fact that they play in Shea Stadium, a pitcher's paradise. Although, if you make that argument, you must also apply it to the batting statistics which are always better for the Mets on the road.

The Mets starting rotation of Glavine, El Duque, Maine, Perez, and (fill in the blank before Pedro returns) is much better than the shallow one the Braves throw out of Smoltz, Hudson, Chuck James, Lance Cormier, and Buddy Carlyle. That's not even close. And while offense wins games, as the Mets know, pitching wins championships, and the Mets have by far a better rotation, which will only improve with the addition of Pedro.

As for the bullpen, let's compare.
Closer: Billy Wagner vs. Bob Wickman. Is this even a question? Wagner is having the best season of his career, although he isn't getting the save opportunities. He is absolutely shutting the door on everyone this year, and the fact that he had trouble the other night was shocking.
Set-up men: Pedro Feliciano vs. Octavio Dotel. I put Feliciano here because, quite frankly, he is the most trusted arm back there outside of Billy Wagner. Dotel was a great addition by the Braves, but they haven't come to trust him just yet (see today's game... where was he???) so we will give the edge to the Mets lefty.
Others:
Aaron Heilman vs Ron Mahay. What to make of Aaron Heilman? Is he the pitcher with the devastating fastball-changeup combo who makes quick work of the Braves on Wednesday night? Or is he the dud who blew two games against them earlier in the year? This is a coin flip depending on which Heilman shows up. Mahay is having an unbelievable year, and just showed the Mets what his capabilities are. Slight edge to the Braves southpaw for consistency.
Jorge Sosa, Aaron Sele, Scott Schoeneweis, and Guillermo Mota vs. Peter Moylan, Rafael Soriano, Oscar Villareal, and Tyler Yates. While these may not be the stars or the best, the Mets have a clear edge here, regardless of what you think of SS and Mota.

Some quick stats on the bullpens: Mets bullpen has an ERA of 3.40 (2nd in the NL) to the Braves 3.76 (6th); the Mets pen has a Batting Average Against of .239 (3rd) to the Braves .250 (8th); and the Mets pen has also given up a paltry 128 walks (4th best) to the Braves 162 (3rd worst). Clearly the bullpen edge goes to the Mets, and as we know, they become a huge factor down the stretch when the starters are tiring and in October, when every appearance matters.

The Mets also have a stellar defense, while the Braves has been inconsistent at best so far this year. The Mets have committed only 61 errors, which is 4th best in the NL, while the Braves have committed 81, 6th most. The Mets fielders have a Fielding Percentage of .985, 5th best, to the braves .981, 11th best. If you recall last year's World Series, the Tigers shot themselves in the foot with costly errors, which ultimately lead them to lose the World Series.

Don't get down Mets fans. All four series have been tight battles, and you can expect the final 6 games between these teams to be the same. Year after year, they slug it out against each other and they always provide a thrill, which is why it's a rivalry. This is how the Yankees and Red Sox became big rivals. Big games plus close games plus drama equals rivalry. Rivalries equal great baseball and exciting baseball, which is why we watch. The Mets and Braves are closer than you think. 8 out of 12 seems bad at first glance, but when you go inside the games and see how the Mets have lost/how the Braves have won, you realize it's not as bad as it may seem. The Mets pitching will only improve when Pedro returns, which will give them an even greater edge over the Braves in that category, and you can certainly hope that the return of Carlos Beltran will finally spark the Mets offense to what it was in 2006 as one of the best in the business. Don't give up on this team. They are still winning this year, much like last year, but they are winning in different ways and the competition is much better than it was. The Mets are still the best team in the National League according to the standings, and you should feel confident that once September and October come, and this team is at full strength, they can dominate once again.